New York Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom was one of the best rookie pitchers in baseball in 2014.

Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets was one of the best rookies in baseball in 2014. He posted a 2.69 ERA, 2.67 FIP with a 144/43 K/BB in 140 innings. He racked up 3.0 fWAR, which made him the fifth-most valuable rookie pitcher in baseball behind Collin McHugh of the Astros (we'll look at him tomorrow), Marcus Stroman of the Blue Jays, Dellin Betances of the Yankees, and Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees.

Jacob deGrom? Mets fans were familiar with him pre-season, but he was not a hot prospect on any national lists. Here's his background.

DeGrom was a ninth round pick in 2010 from Stetson University in Florida. He began his college career as an infielder and didn't pitch full time until the spring of his draft season, but his athleticism and arm strength stood out. He posted a 5.19 ERA with a 22/6 K/BB in 26 innings for Kingsport in the Appalachian League after signing, but gave up 35 hits. I didn't rank him in my 2011 book.

I didn't rank him in my 2012 book either, since he blew out his elbow and missed all of '11 with Tommy John surgery. However, he got back on the mound in 2012 and was very effective, posting a 2.51 ERA and a 78/14 K/BB in 90 innings in Low-A. Sally League sources were enthusiastic, prompting this report entering 2013:

SLEEPER ALERT!! DeGrom was drafted in the ninth round in 2010, out of Stetson University in Florida. He was mainly a shortstop in college and has the lanky athleticism that goes with that background. He missed 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but came back healthy and effective in 2012, pitching very well at both levels of A-ball. DeGrom threw 89-94 in college but was up to 93-95 last year, at times reportedly hitting 97. His slider and changeup were also said to be better than he showed in college, and his control is sharp. He needs innings and experience, and it is unclear if he starts or relieves in the long run, but given his background I think deGrom made a lot of progress last year and bears close watching in 2013. Grade C+.

DeGrom's 2013 season brought mixed results: 4.80 ERA with 44/20 K/BB in 60 innings with 69 hits for Double-A Binghamton, along with a 4.52 ERA with a 63/24 K/BB in 76 innings for Triple-A Las Vegas, with 87 hits. He was hittable but note how his strikeout rate actually increased at the higher level, perhaps a sign that he was getting ready to break through for '14. Here's the report from the 2014 book:

A ninth round pick in 2010 from Stetson University, DeGrom reached Triple-A last year and should appear in the majors sometime in ’14. The former shortstop has a 92-97 MPH fastball which he locates well. He’s developed a fine changeup, but his breaking ball remains so-so and is reflected in a non-outstanding strikeout rate. It could use more work and additional Triple-A innings would be useful. DeGrom looks like a future number three or four starter to me, with bullpen work a backup option to keep in mind if his breaking ball doesn’t sharpen up. Grade C+ (note below)

The Grade C+ in the book was too low; I increased that to a B- in mid-January after more detailed review of the stats, scouting reports and video but forgot to change the book comment to match up with the final Mets Top 20 list.

As you know, deGrom opened up with seven starts this spring with Las Vegas, getting those "additional Triple-A innings." He was excellent, was promoted to the majors, and remained excellent.

So what happened? Simple: the breaking stuff came around.

The fastball and change-up were already there in the low minors, but he's polished up his curveball and slider to go with it. Eno Sarris at Fangraphs broke this down in August, noting the addition of power to the slider and a more defined curve. As Sarris wrote, deGrom now has five effective pitches, the arsenal  ". . .development has given him five pitches with different movement and different velocities: two 93 mph fastballs, an 87 mph slider, an 84 mph change and a 79 mph curve."

What happens now? DeGrom looks real to me; there's no question about his stuff and the statistics are sharp. Heck, he was getting better as the season progressed: he posted a 34/4 K/BB over 21 innings (four runs) in his last three starts; the league was not catching up with him, not yet anyway.

DeGrom is a sleeper who woke up, a textbook example of an organization taking a rather raw but athletic player and turning him into a pitcher. That takes good scouting and good coaching, but it is the player who ultimately makes it happen.

Your Monday morning dose of New York Mets and Major League Baseball news, notes, and links.

Meet the Mets

The Mets are allowing prized prospect Rafael Montero to pitch for a club in his native Dominican Republic this winter.

John Sickels has a sweet article about how Jacob deGrom dropped some hints in the minors about how he was ready to break out in 2014.

The Star-Ledger grades the surprisingly effective Buddy Carlyle on his 2014 season.

Rising Apple reviewsRuben Tejada and his somewhat disappointing campaign.

With Matt Harvey on his way back from Tommy John surgery, Mets 360 proclaims that our team has already won the offseason.

Around the Majors

Sweep city! Bud Norris allowed just two hits and two walks in 6.1 innings, while Nelson Cruz belted a two-run home run off of David Price to help the Orioles defeat the Tigers 2-1 in the third and final game of the ALDS.

Baltimore will host the Royals in the ALCS starting on Friday. Kansas City swept its ALDS as well with an 8-3 triumph over the Angels on Sunday night. Norichika Aoki reached base four times during the game and Alex Gordon hit a three-run double in the first inning to get the Kauffman Stadium party started.

After the elimination of Detroit, veteran outfielder Torii Hunter is mulling retirement.

Someone who has already made up his mind about retirement: former Met Fernando Tatis, who spent this past season in the Mexican League. I'm going to miss that guy.

The Giants have a chance to pull off a sweep of their own when they face the Nationals in San Francisco this evening. Washington manager Matt Williams says he had trouble sleeping after pulling Jordan Zimmermann in the ninth inning of Game 2, and it's not just because the decision added on nine innings to the length of the game.

The only series that definitely won't end in a sweep is the NLDS between the Cardinals and Dodgers, which is currently tied at 1-1. Mike Matheny wants his players to be able to stand up for themselves without risking suspension.

Around the NL East

Federal Baseball goes deep inside Williams' fateful decision and the rest of Washington's Game 2 marathon loss to the Giants.

A newsreel from Game 7 of the 1924 World Series between the Washington Senators and New York Giants has been discovered.

Yesterday at AA

On this date in 1969, the Mets clinched their first National League pennant.

Potential 40-man roster cuts; A-Rod sorry he missed Jeter's last game; Jeter jokes last game felt like his funeral.

New York Post | Jonathan Lehman: Alex Rodriguez is sorry that he wasn't at Yankee Stadium for Derek Jeter's last game.

NJ.com | Brendan Kuty: Looking ahead to who the Yankees might cut to make room on the 40-man roster.

MLB.com | Mark Newman: Brett Gardner is the Yankees' nominee for this year's Hank Aaron Award, which honors the top offensive performers in each league.

LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: How the minor league system could help next year.

The New York Times | Cara Buckley: Actor Ben Affleck refused to wear a Yankees hat in his upcoming movie, compromised by wearing a Mets hat.

New York Daily News | Andy Clayton: In an interview with Jimmy Fallon on "The Tonight Show," Jeter jokes that his last game felt like his funeral, says he doesn't want his new website to put sportswriters out of business.

Barry Bonds is 50 and he's been retired since 2007. Who cares? He doesn't cost the Mets any prospects in a trade and he can probably still pop some dingers and control the strike zone.

Barry Bonds last played in a Major League Baseball game with the San Francisco Giants on September 26, 2007. At an age when most players are well past their prime, Bonds was still a force to be reckoned with at the plate, even if he was not at the unreal heights he set from 2001-2004. Bonds' .428 weighted on base average (wOBA) in 2007 tied for 6th in the majors with Matt Holliday among players with at least 450 plate appearances. His weighted runs created plus (wRC+), adjusted for the spacious confines of AT&T Park, was 6th in the majors at 157. For almost anyone, a line of .276/.480/.565 with 28 home runs, 132 walks, and only 54 strikeouts would be a career year. For Bonds, it was somehow his last. At age 42, Bonds was unwanted despite putting up an OPS over 1.000 for the 15th time in his career.

Now at age 50 and retired for 7 seasons, Bonds still finds himself on the outside looking in to the Hall of Fame. Despite holding the league's all-time home run crown at 762 dingers and retiring as one of the greatest position players in the entire game's fabled history, he's unable to garner enough votes to make a dent due to his well known history with performance enhancing drugs. Fair or unfair as that may be to Mr. Bonds, it is irrelevant to this piece. Looking ahead, Bonds' chances of getting into the Hall may be compromised by the sheer number of quality players set to be added to the ballot in the coming years. While Bonds' credentials trump a grand majority of the players who'll be eligible, if he hasn't gotten the votes on less stacked ballots, it seems unlikely that he'll suddenly get more votes in the future.

So here's an idea for Mr. Bonds to consider, should he want to show voters that he's worthy of the Hall: make a comeback attempt. Now you're probably saying "he's 50 years old, how is Barry Bonds going to make a comeback at 50 and who would even want him?" That's where our New York Mets come into play.

At the plate, Barry Bonds is a perfect model of Sandy Alderson's hitting philosophy. He has great knowledge of the strike zone, he's disciplined at the plate, and he's willing to take a walk but when he gets his pitch in the zone, he's going to take advantage of it and hit it a long way. He's one of those rare players who hits for power but barely strikes out, a great combo that you really don't find in the game these days. Even Giancarlo Stanton, a fantastic hitter in his own right and currently the game's best power hitter, strikes out at dangerously high rates. Just how great Stanton would be if he cut his career strikeout rate by 16%. That's Barry Bonds.

It goes without saying that Bonds would likely not be the same player he was even in 2007. Seven seasons away from the game is a long time and at age 50, his skills have probably deteriorated to some degree. But for a guy with such a great eye and such huge power, is it inconceivable that Bonds could put up say a .350 on base percentage and 20 home runs even in a somewhat limited role? While I don't know if or not that's the case, a team like the Mets wouldn't have a whole lot to lose by giving it a shot. In need of a corner outfielder, the Mets appear cash poor and are seemingly unwilling to trade from their best asset, a strong crop of young pitching. They like power and on base percentage and are in desperate need of both in the outfield.

This is where a signing of Bonds comes in. For the Mets, they get a bat for left field with power who could add a lot to the middle of their lineup without having to trade young players. They also have capable bench outfielders in Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt den Dekker who can sub in for defense late in games and give Bonds occasional days off. For Bonds, he comes out of retirement looking for redemption while trying to help Hall of Fame voters see just how great he was and still is, despite his PED past. If we assume that Bonds isn't getting into the Hall of Fame anyway, he really has little to lose other than his free time.

*******

Okay, so this argument is probably pretty crazy and I'll admit it's mostly tongue-in-cheek on my part, an idea I thought up after seeing that Barry joined Twitter earlier this month. There's no way Barry Bonds would come out of retirement at age 50 and play for the Mets, of all teams. Even if he did, it'd probably be rough watching him roam left field at Citi Field and who knows how well he'd realistically hit. Mostly, I just miss watching Barry hit dingers a long, long way like this:

Really, who wouldn't want to see more of that? The more long home runs in baseball, the better. Come back, Barry! You can even use your Google Glass on the field! (maybe).

I am Glassing @AnthonyPhills#Onlyinthebay sorry for it twice still learning between Instagram and Twitter. pic.twitter.com/DIIvGTQVeT

— Barry L Bonds (@BarryBonds) September 29, 2014

The center fielder emerged as a fan favorite in 2014 and cemented himself as a key piece of the Mets' future.

The Mets' outfield was in a major flux heading into the 2014 season. Free agent splash Curtis Granderson was the only player expected to be in the lineup every day, and the remaining two spots were up in the air between defensive whiz—yet offensively challenged—Juan Lagares, the National Leagues' reigning stolen base king Eric Young Jr., and the newly acquired wild card Chris Young.

As a 24-year-old rookie, Lagares hit .242/.281/.352 in 2013. His defense in center field was unquestionably among the best in baseball, but his underwhelming batting line led many to wonder if he was capable of playing every day on a Mets team that already had so many other positions to worry about offensively.

Lagares got the Opening Day nod in center field and proceeded to go 2-for-4 with three runs scored and an RBI. Eric Young Jr.'s day did not go nearly as well, putting up a golden sombrero out of the leadoff spot. For the Mets, this type of production was a sign of things to come for the rest of the season.

Lagares's sophomore campaign got off to a terrific start. He hit .314/.345/.471 with a .816 OPS in the Mets' first 13 games. Then on April 15, Lagares was placed on the disabled list with a hamstring injury that would keep him sidelined for the rest of April. Upon his return to the diamond on May 1, Lagares racked up two doubles and an RBI. Shortly thereafter Terry Collins named Lagares the Mets primary center fielder. Inexplicably, Collins then held Lagares out of the lineup for four of five games in mid-May to make room in the outfield for the likes of Bobby Abreu, Eric Young, and Chris Young, prompting an uproar from media and fans, thus giving life to the Twitter hashtag #FreeLagares, which for a time trended nationally.

After he rode the pine for three consecutive days—three consecutive Mets losses—Mets fans rejoiced as Collins inserted Lagares back into the lineup. In his triumphant return to center field,Lagares blasted a two-run homer and made an unbelievable over-the-wall catch to rob Jayson Werth of a home run in the bottom of the sixth inning. Lagares finished the game going2-for-4 with three RBI and a run scored, and the Mets beat the Washington Nationals by a score of 5-2. After that day, no matter how infatuated Collins was with the speed of Young Jr. or the veteran presence of Abreu, no matter how much Chris Young was getting paid—nothing was going to stand in the way of a healthy Lagares playing center filed regularly. Lagares rounded out May as one of the team's top offensive performers with a line of .280/.330/.410 for the month.

On June 2, Lagares made an unfortunate return trip to the DL, this time due to a right intercostal strain. Up until this point, the athletic center fielder held an inspiring batting line of .288/.331/.423 with two home runs and 18 RBI in 42 games. He ended up missing three-and-a-half weeks of action, getting back in the lineup on June 26. The dog days of summer were arguably the toughest on Lagares, as his offensive production dipped to .266/.302/.357 combined during July and August. These numbers are still more than acceptable when paired with his elite defense in center field as evidenced by his top three overall finishes in defensive metrics such as DRS and UZR/150, per Fangraphs.

The final month of the season gave Mets fans a glimpse of what to expect from their potential 2015 leadoff man. After only stealing six bases all season, Lagares swiped seven bags out of the leadoff spot in just 15 September games and got caught only once. His new-found thievery on the basepaths will be entertaining to watch for in 2015. Of course, his season was abruptly ended after a sprained right elbow, but that should not get in the way of what was a breakout season of sorts for Lagares in 2014. Alas, his "lay it all out on the field" style of play attributed to three relatively minor trips to the disabled list.

He finished the season at .281/.321/.382 with four home runs and 47 RBI in 116 games while playing Gold Glove caliber defense every step of the way in center field. He ended with a slightly above league average 101 wRC+. Lagares enters the offseason as the in-house favorite to be the Mets' Opening Day leadoff man next season, but the team may be wise to look into acquiring a more speed oriented player at either shortstop or corner outfield who has a bit more consistent plate discipline than Lagares to plug in at the top of the order. Nonetheless, no matter where in the lineup he hits, Lagares certainly proved this season that he is more than just a defensive stud, but a player whose continued offensive improvements have made him part of the teams core players to build a contender around as soon as 2015.

Desired 2015 role: Full-time starting center fielder batting further down in the order as Mets acquire more ideal leadoff-type hitter through free agency or trade

Projected 2015 role: Full-time starting center fielder and good-enough leadoff hitter.

With no pre-season fanfare, Houston Astros starter Collin McHugh was the top rookie pitching prospect in baseball in 2014.

McHugh was an 18th round pick in 2008 from Berry College in Georgia. He was getting hit hard at St. Lucie last spring, but was promoted to Double-A to make an emergency start in late May. He pitched well, kept pitching well, and never returned to St. Lucie. McHugh has an average fastball at 88-92 MPH. He has a diverse set of secondary pitches including a cutter, a slider, a traditional slow curve, and a changeup. He is also intelligent and articulate, and runs his own blog at www.adayolderadaywiser.blogspot.com.  McHugh doesn’t have spectacular stuff, but he works the strike zone efficiently and picks up plenty of ground balls. He’s fanned more than a hitter per inning in his career, and he’s got a shot to be a useful fourth starter or bullpen asset. Grade C+.

Corey Kluber was the best pitcher in baseball in 2014. He was never a top prospect. Were there any clues in his profile that this could happen?

According to Fangraphs WAR, the best pitcher in Major League Baseball in 2014 was Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians, with a 7.3 WAR.  Not everyone likes WAR as a metric, but even if you prefer a more traditional approach, his numbers were undeniable: 18 wins to lead the American League, 2.44 ERA, 269 strikeouts in 236 innings, just 205 hits and 51 walks, 152 ERA+, and a league-best 2.35 FIP.

Now the funny thing here is that Kluber's 2013 season (2.8 WAR in 147 innings) was already considered a great example of a sleeper waking up. He's not just awake now; he obtained a zenith of baseball consciousness that few pitchers reach.

Okay, so where the heck did this one come from?

Kluber was a fourth round pick in 2007 out of Stetson University in Florida, drafted by the San Diego Padres. He was quite effective in college, posting a 2.05 ERA with a 117/36 K/BB ratio in 114 innings with just 90 hits allowed.

Keep in mind that this was before the NCAA adopted less-potent metal bats: that was a very, very good performance. Also note that Kluber came out of Stetson University, the same school that produced New York Mets surprise Jacob deGrom this year.

While Kluber performed well in college, his stock was hampered a bit by a high school injury, a stress fracture that required the insertion of a metal pin in his throwing arm. He pitched well in his pro debut, posting a 3.51 ERA with a 33/15 K/BB in 33 innings for Eugene in the Northwest League. Here's the book comment for 2008:

Corey Kluber’s excellent spring for Stetson University garnered him a spot in the fourth round of the ’07 draft. A four-pitch starter, he has a 90-93 MPH fastball, a curveball, a slider and a changeup. While none of his pitches are terrific, none of them are bad, either. He held his own in his pro debut, and if he can sharpen his command a bit more, he could be a surprise in ’08. Kluber, along with fifth round Padres pick Jeremy Hefner out of Oral Roberts, is a possible breakthrough guy. Grade C+.

He got off to a good start with a 3.21 ERA and a 72/13 K/BB in 56 innings for Low-A Fort Wayne in '08, but found the going much rougher after moving up to the California League, with a 6.01 ERA and a 75/34 K/BB in 85 innings with 93 hits allowed for Lake Elsinore. Kluber still struck hitters out at a decent clip, but the league environment is awful tough in the Cal and scouting reports weren't very enthusiastic.

I had him as a Grade C type entering 2009 and did not put him in my book.

Kluber posted a 4.54 ERA in 109 innings for Lake Elsinore in 2009 with a 124/36 K/BB, followed by a 4.60 ERA with a 35/34 K/BB in 45 innings for Double-A San Antonio. The K/IP rate in the Cal League was excellent, but his ratios were much worse after he moved up. He did not make it into the 2010 book, although the strikeout rate showed some promise. Nowadays I would be more likely to find room for someone like him, in part because of the example that Kluber himself set.

He returned to San Antonio to open 2011 and performed much better, with a 3.45 ERA and a 136/40 K/BB in 123 innings. He was traded to the Indians in late July and continued to pitch effectively for Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus.

I should definitely have included him in the 2011 book, but failed to do so. Baseball America did not make that mistake, ranking him 26th on their Indians prospect list entering 2011.

2011 was a strange year. He posted a 5.56 ERA for Columbus, obviously not good, giving up 153 hits in 151 innings with a 143/70 K/BB. He made his major league debut with four relief innings for Cleveland.

Entering 2012 there was no objective reason to be impressed. Baseball America dropped him out of their Indians prospect list, but when I saw him pitch in person something caught me eye, so he went back into the 2012 book with the following comment:

Kluber was a fourth round pick by the Padres out of Stetson in 2007. The Indians picked him up in 2010 as part of a three-way trade involving Jake Westbrook. Kluber has average stuff: 88-93 MPH fastball, decent slider, decent changeup. He has this little hook-hitch in his delivery that helps his stuff play up, and he’s always had good strikeout rates. A little kink can take some people a long way. Kluber is not spectacular but he can eat innings. With some command improvements he could be a useful utility pitcher. Grade C.

He showed those improvements in 2012, with a 3.59 ERA and a much better 128/49 K/BB in 125 innings for Columbus. He held his own (4.29 FIP) in 63 innings with the Indians. As noted he pitched pretty well in '13 and was truly outstanding this season.

***There was statistical evidence that Kluber was a sleeper type well before he reached the majors, back when he was in college and A-ball, as noted in the old reports.

***It took several years for that to fully manifest, but even when he struggled at times, he maintained good strikeout rates.

***His velocity has picked up; he gets his fastball up to 97 MPH these days, averaging about 93, up a good 3-4 MPH from earlier in his career.

***Even more important than the velocity is an improved breaking ball, as pointed out by Jeff Sullivan a few weeks ago. Kluber's work ethic and constant adjustments are also a major factor as Sullivan points out.

***Looking at every piece of video I can find, including this extensive multi-angle view from Indians Baseball Insider dating back to 2012, I'm not seeing the hooky action in his delivery I mentioned a couple of years ago. Either he smoothed that out, it was a one-game aberration that I just happened to see, it was an optical illusion, or it was an hallucination on my part.


The bottom line: even the most-optimistic appraisals of Kluber did not come close to predicting this type of dominance. Even when he was considered a sleeper, Kluber looked more like an inning-eater than an ace.

That said, in my view Kluber is for real, maybe not Cy Young quality every year but certainly a legitimately excellent pitcher.

We've looked at several of these sleepers lately and we'll have a summary article shortly, looking for commonalities.

A breakdown of the Scottsdale Scorpions roster which includes players from both New York teams, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco.

With the Arizona Fall League (AFL for those who like abbreviations) right around the corner, the initial rosters have been released for each of the six teams. In the third part of the 2014 AFL Preview we will take an in-depth look at the Scottsdale Scorpions. The season begins October 7th, and with it will bring the return of the AFL Gameday.

Many AFL squads will have a handful of premium prospect, but I'd like to look at the lesser known commodities. After all, everyone knows how good guys like Tyler Glasnow, Brandon Nimmo, and Josh Bell are. Lets put some light on the guys you may know nothing about.

Previous AFL Previews -

Glendale Desert Dogs

Peoria Javelinas

All stats are as of the end of the minor league season.

Catchers -

Elias Diaz put together a hell of a break out in his age 23 season for Pittsburgh's AA affiliate in Altoona. The Venezuelan signed with Pittsburgh as an international free agent back in 2008. He spent two seasons in the rookie leagues followed by two more in Low A West Virginia where he was known as a defensive minded catcher and organization depth. Last year in the second half at A+ Bradenton, Diaz had something click and he finished the year with a 315/380/393 line after July 1st. That momentum carried over into 2014 where he tore up the Eastern League to the tune of a 328/378/445 triple slash with 27 extra base knocks and a tidy 30:51 walk to strike out ratio. In mid August he was promoted to AAA Indianapolis for the stretch run where he struggled to get his footing, hitting 152/243/182 in 33 at bats. Against southpaws, Diaz was an animal, hitting 413/450/578 with 12 extra base hits in just 109 at bats. He was much more human against righties with a 268/330/352 line, and showed more power hitting on the road (310/372/485) than at home (314/359/362). Behind the dish he gets praise for his fundamentals, quick release, and arm strength, with his own manager throwing a Benito Santiago comp (remember him?). Eastern League managers also named him the best defensive catcher in the league while also earning mid and post season all-star nods. Diaz threw out 31% of attempted stolen bases with five error and eight passed balls. Combine the offensive improvements with his defensive prowess and he gets much more interesting.

Infielders -

I really like the depth the Scottsdale squad will have to work with in their infield. Josh Bell will be getting work at first base as he transitions into the infield where he will be sharing time with Greg Bird. LJ Mazzilli, Matt Reynolds, Blake Miller, and Kelby Tomlinson are up the middle with all but Mazzilli able to handle short stop. Dante Bichette Jr and Dan Gamache will also be getting looks at third base.

LJ Mazzilli has the bloodlines (son of former all-star Lee Mazzilli) and draft status (2013 - 4th round) to remain relevant for the near future, but his performance is doing most of the talking and accelerating his time table. Split between Low A Savannah, A+ St. Lucie, and one game at AAA Las Vegas, Mazzilli put up a 301/361/440 line with 44 extra base hits, and 14 stolen bases, with an 8.0% walk rate and 14.6% strike out rate. Mini Maz gets better looks at lefties than right handers, hitting 308/377/496 in 133 at bats against portsiders with 16 walks to 19 K's. He still hit righties well (298/355/419), and was more effective on the road (322/380/493) than at home (277/340/379) which is understandable with both home stadiums heavily favoring pitchers. His track record suggests his combined .337 BABIP is something he can sustain while also hitting line drives at a better than league average clip. The 23 year old senior sign will make his name with the stick, lacing balls from gap to gap with a good approach at the plate, always looking to go to the left-center gap. His instincts and ability to read pitchers make his average speed play up on the bases. On defense he made 18 errors at second base in 487 chances for a .963 fielding percentage which jives with defensive reports that say he competent, but won't be confused with a gold glover any time soon. No matter the case, he will  be one of those guys that will play better than his tools because of his knowledge of the game and great instincts.

Matt Reynolds is another high round Mets draftee, being taken in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft and signing for $525,000 out of the University of Arkansas. He kicked the year off in AA Binghamton where he hit a stout 355/430/422 with an astronomical .433 BABIP. Bumped up to AAA Las Vegas, he continued to rake where he remarkably sustained a BABIP over .400 (.404 to be exact). No doubt part of that was due to the friendly offensive environs of the Pacific Coast League, notching 25 extra base hits there while only hitting nine in AA in roughly the same amount of at bats. Combined between the two upper levels of the minor leagues, Reynolds hit 343/405/454 with a 9.2% walk rate and 18.6% strike out rate, 34 extra base hits, and 20 stolen bases. Digging into his splits, he was a bit better against lefties (359/422/468) than righties (335/396/447) but both lines were excellent. He maintained an excellent line drive rate throughout the year, hitting liners 24.4% of the time in AA (8.9 points better than the Eastern League average) and 22.3% of the time in AAA (3.5 point better than the PCL average). He's not a burner, but Reynolds just doesn't have the same speed as most short stops despite the 20 stolen bases. The lack of speed hurts his range but he is pretty sure-handed with the ones he does get to with soft hands and a plus throwing arm. He made 16 errors at short stop with a .963 fielding percentage in 431 chances while also making one error at second base where he played 21 games, getting 92 chances. Reynolds is a baseball rat and understands how to play the game the right way, being dubbed "a grinder" by AAA manager Wally Backman. He looks to be similar to LJ Mazzilli in that he will squeeze every ounce of talent out of his average tools.

Outfielders -

Scottsdale should have three very capable center fielders in Daniel Carbonell, Roman Quinn and Brandon Nimmo with Nimmo being the best of the trio. Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin look to hold down the corners with Nimmo in center and Josh Bell possibly getting time in right field as well if he's not playing first base.

Daniel Carbonell was one of the more recent Cuban defectors to sign, inking a four year deal worth $3,175,000 with the Giants with a $1,000,000 signing bonus this past June. Carbonell is actually the first Cuban born player to sign with San Francisco since 1966. He spent over a year out of professional baseball during his defection so he was certainly shaking off some rust this year where he split time between the Arizona rookie league and A+ San Jose. He only made it into 31 games with 128 at bats where he hit 336/384/523 as a 23 year old. In his limited playing time he did rack up 13 extra base hits and 11 stolen bases, showing off his plus plus speed. With a sample so small, splits won't really tell you much. The scouting reports on him rave about his speed with Ben Badler of Baseball America noting that he notched a home to first time of just 4.0 seconds, which translates to an 80 on the scouting scale. This speed also helps him cover tons of ground in center field and he pairs that with an above average throwing arm. Carbonell is a guy that needs more reps at the dish, both for his own development and for more people to get eyes on him.

Roman Quinn was once considered the heir to Jimmy Rollins' thrown in Philly as their short stop of the future, being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft from a Florida high school and signing for $775,000. He began the transition to center field this season in A+ Clearwater where he hit 257/343/370, beginning his season in late May after recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon. He stole 32 bases in 44 tries, racking up 20 extra base hits in 327 at bats, posting career highs in doubles (10), home runs (7), walks (36), and RBI (36). Quinn profiles as a top of the order hitter with minimal power, tons of speed and a good enough eye to draw some walks. He strolled down to first with a free pass 9.4% of the time this year while taking the trip back to the dugout with a K 20.9% of the time. The 21 year old switch hitter was much better from the left side against right handed pitchers, hitting 327/391/418 with eight walks and 14 punch outs in 98 at bats. Southpaws handled him much better by limiting him to a 227/323/349 line but with six of his seven homers. Quinn was also markedly better on the road (331/420/514) than at home (200/280/259) which makes sense as Clearwater is one of the friendliest parks for pitchers in the Florida State League. He understands that speed is a major part of his game and he keeps the ball on the ground, hitting 51.4% ground balls which was 5.8 points more than league average. His 80 grade speed and excellent athleticism make him a perfect fit in center field where he made six errors in 69 games as he gets used to reading fly balls and taking better routes. He's got a plus arm as well which should make him a very good defender with more reps patrolling the outfield.

Starting Pitchers -

Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Blackburn are the horses in the rotation, with Glasnow emerging as one of the top pitching prospects in the game. 


Adrian Sampson was taken in the 5th round of the 2012 draft by the Pirates, signing for $250,000 out of Bellevue CC in Washington state. The 22 year old had a breakout campaign for AA Altoona, logging 148 innings with a 2.55 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP with a 10-5 record. This earned him a four start trial in AAA Indianapolis with less impressive results. He finished out the year with a composite 2.96 ERA, 3.70 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP between the two levels with 5.89 K/9, 1.99 BB/9, 8.29 H/9 and opponents hit 246/292/359 against him. His bullpen helped him out with a 76.1% strand rate and a .275 BABIP is a good 25 points better than league average. Sampson racked up ground balls 2 points more than league average while limiting line drives over five points better. The splits tell me he's tougher on right handed hitters (232/272/325) than lefties (259/311/392) and he also fared better in Altoona (2.44 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 223/263/331) than on the road (3.56 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 270/322/388). Sampson credits his rough 2013 on learning how to throw a change up from scratch and continually working on it despite the results. This focus on the change up was part of the reason for his breakout this year as well. His arsenal features a low 90's fastball that can touch 94 mph, a 12-6 hook with tremendous depth and late break, and his new change up which looks to be an average pitch now. Sampson commands the ball well and is very effective when he gets ahead early and can take advantage of using his big breaker in favorable counts. He also already has a Tommy John surgery on his resume from his amateur days in 2010.

Robert Whalen managed to slip all the way to the 12th round in 2012 before he was snatched up by the Mets and given a $100,000 bonus. He fell so far due to a dead arm he dealt with his senior year of high school in Florida. Now getting to full season ball as a 20 year old, Whalen tore through the South Atlantic even though he missed two months from May to July with a hand infection. He threw 62.2 innings at Low A Savannah with a 2.01 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and 1.01 WHIP combined with a 7.61 K/9, 2.73 BB/9 and 6.32 H/9. Combined with seven rehab innings in the GCL, opponents managed a meager 189/263/248 line against him with right handed hitters even more helpless, hitting 151/222/178. Lefties gave him more issues, tagging him to a 245/325/353 line. Other things that stick out is the 165/237/215 line on the road, and 160/217/179 line with men on base. Whalen did a great job keeping the ball on the ground in Savannah with a 1.91 GO:FO ratio and 54.5% ground balls, which was a good 10 points better than league average. His .241 BABIP is definitely something that will not be the norm, and combine it with a 77.3% strand rate, that makes up for the 1.45 point difference in his ERA and FIP. Whalen has a pair of fastballs that sit in the 90-94 mph range with a heavy two seamer that generates good sink in the lower registers. He's also the owner of the best curveball in the Mets system, a true weapon with 10-4 break in the high 70's to low 80's. A below-average change up rounds out his repertoire to go with good control

Relief Pitchers -

Steven Okert is one of the few guys to be drafted three times but not sign as a senior. He spent his first two years of college at a junior college before transferring to Oklahoma for his junior season in 2012. The Giants snagged him in the 4th round in 2012, giving him a $270,000 bonus. Last year he made his full season debut, spending the whole year in Low A Augusta. This year, the 22 year old kicked off the year with A+ San Jose where he was the closer, posting a 1.53 ERA, 2.53 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP through 35.1 innings with 19 saves in 33 games. Okert also struck out 35.5% of hitters, walked 7.2%, and allowed a .237 opponents batting average and 8.41 H/9 even with an insane .374 BABIP. Being the closer and finishing 29 of 33 games, he understandably had a high strand rate of 92.6% since he didn't have many opportunities to leave runners on for his bullpen mates. His performance in the California League at San Jose earned him a promotion to AA Richmond where he made 24 more appearances with a 2.73 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP. Okert's BABIP went to the other extreme, dropping to .266 in AA with his opponents batting average lowering to .200 as a result. A 77.9% strand rate helped keep the ERA down, and he did finish out 11 of the 24 games he came in. His composite ERA between the two levels sits at 2.11 with a 2.87 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 12.12 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, and an opponents triple slash line of 225/291/332. He was death on lefties, limiting them to a 165/240/209 line while right handers tagged him with a 259/320/401 line. Aside from the month of July (cherry picking stats, I know), Okert kept his ERA under 1.95 each month of the season. He also did a great job limiting line drives in AA with just 9.8% of batted balls falling under that category, a good 5.7 points better than the Eastern League average. On the mound, he works with a heater that sits 92-95 but can reach back for 97 mph when needed. He also has a low 80's slider with late bite and sharp break, and a fringy change up he uses sparingly.

Bonus reports!

(Both Hunter Strickland and Matt Duffy were taken off the AFL roster to play in the postseason with the Giants after I already wrote them up but I didn't just want to delete everything.)

Hunter Strickland has been around for awhile now, first turning pro back in 2007 as an 18th round pick from a Georgia high school with a modest $123,500 signing bonus from the Boston Red Sox. WEEI's Alex Speier penned a fantastic piece on his time with the Sox which ran from 2007 to July 2009 when he was shipped to Pittsburgh with Argenis Diaz for Adam LaRoche. He's also lost the majority or all of two seasons to injury - all of 2011 to rotator cuff surgery and most of 2013 to Tommy John surgery. The Bucs placed him on waivers before the 2013 season and he was claimed by the Giants before undergoing elbow surgery. He made his way back into game action in mid May where he spent his age 25 season shuttling between A+ San Jose and AA Richmond. Called up to AA for good after striking out seven in just three innings, Strickland powered his way through the Eastern League with 48 strike out to four walk over 35.2 innings with a 2.02 ERA, 2.09 FIP, and a 0.81 WHIP. The Giants thought enough of his dominance to call him up to the show for September where he once again overpowered hitters in a brief seven inning trial. He punched out nine in seven frames with no walks, no runs, and just five hits allowed. Strickland overmatched lefties and right handers equally with right handed hitters running a 182/202/304 line against him and lefties hitting 210/227/258 off him. He also allowed just one free pass with men on base, and all three home runs he allowed were solo shots from right handed hitters. The repertoire is simple with Strickland, a high octane 96-100 mph fastball and a vicious mid 80's slide piece with tight rotation and excellent movement. He's got a great idea where it's going (hence the four walks all year), and the organization was so enamored with the pure stuff he was named to the postseason roster despite just seven innings of big league experience.

Stats and info were pulled from Baseball Reference, Baseball America, FanGraphs, Minor League Central, MLB Farm, and MiLB.com.

The All-Star second baseman is expected to be dealt this offseason.

New York Mets' second baseman Daniel Murphy is coming off an All-Star season, but his days in New York may be numbered, as ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin reports that Mets' team officials are heavily interested in trading Murphy this winter.

The 29-year-old Murphy is coming off a season in which he hit .289/.332/.403 with a 110 wRC+ and 2.8 WAR. He is a well above-average offensive second baseman, owning a 108 wRC+ for his career, but his defense is limited, as he cost the Mets roughly 11 runs in the field this year according to defensive runs saved.

Murphy made $5.7 million in 2014, and is eligible for arbitration for a final time this offseason. With just one year of club control remaining and an expected 2015 salary exceeding $8 million, Murphy has been deemed expendable by the organization. And while the club could still make a push to extend Murphy, the team has thus far had "no inclination to engage" in extension talks.

As Rubin notes, the Mets are looking for a power-hitting outfielder in a return package for Murphy. New York could also consider dealing Murphy at next summer's trade deadline, as the supply-and-demand would likely be more in their favor. However, the Mets expect to compete in 2015, which would make it difficult to justify dealing away an established part of their lineup in-season.

The Mets do have numerous options to replace Murphy. Wilmer Flores, Dilson Herrera, and Matt Reynolds are among the in-house  choices. Flores and Herrera both spent time in the majors this season, while Reynolds, a 2012 second round selection, hit .343/.405/.454 in 543 plate appearances split between Double and Triple-A.

Your Tuesday morning dose of New York Mets and MLB news, notes, and links.

Meet the Mets

The Mets are reportedly looking to moveDaniel Murphy this offseason, which seems more palatable to team brass with the emergence of Dilson Herrera and Wilmer Flores

John Lannan, Taylor Teagarden, and Omar Quintanilla have all filed for free agency

Mark Simon asks "who should close for the Mets in 2014?"

Joel Sherman says that the Mets should put in an offer for Orioles pitcher Andrew Miller, who is a free agent in the offseason.

Mike Vaccaro reminds us that the definition of a miracle depends on your point of view.

Mike Vorkunov dissects how Jacob deGrom went from good to great.

Vorkunov also asks if the Mets should trade some starting pitching.

Nick Melotte at Minor League Ball previews the Scottsdale Scorpions. The Scorpions will carry Brandon Nimmo and a number of other Mets on their Arizona Fall League roster.

It seems as if local radio Michael Kay may have been taking some pot shots at rival Mike Francesa.

Former Mets coach Chip Hale is getting an interview to become the Twins manager.

Around the N.L. East

The Nationals managed to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Giants yesterday, as a Madison Bumgarner throwing error doomed the West Coasters. The Giants fell 4-1, but still are up two games to one in the series.

Michael Powell writes that with the Nationals win, they may have slipped out of an embarrassing narrative going into the offseason.

Federal Baseball gives some background to the newsreel that was discovered this week.

Around the Majors

In the late contest, the Cardinals beat the Dodgers by a score of 3-1, on the back of a Kolten Wong home run. The win puts the Cardinals up two games to one in the series.

Matthew Pouliot writes that Don Mattingly has no idea what to do with the back of his bullpen.

Clayton Kershaw will start game four on short rest.

Dave Schoenfeld writes that it is redemption for Wong, who struggled early in the season.

Naila-Jean Meyers takes a look back at what life was like the last time the Orioles were in the ALCS.

David Waldstein writes that Brady Anderson is the link that connects the 1997 Orioles to the modern day ones.

The MLB playoffs continue to draw solid ratings, despite them not being on a major network. Baseball is dead, though, ya know.

Jasper Scherer says that Billy Beane has a lot to think about this offseason.

Jeff Sulllivan wants to know "what's up with Clayton Kershaw?"

Last night after the Royals win, Eric Hosmertweeted for fans to come out to the bar he was at. He then proceeded to buy them drinks.

Ken Rosenthal says that baseball fans who are peeved about the dominance of big-market teams need to tune into the ALCS.

Yesterday at AA

Andrew M. Cohen took a look at Juan Lagares' stellar 2014 season.

Steve Schreiber wrote about a left field candidate for 2015 that people may not have thought of.

If you see a link you think would be a great addition to Mets Morning News, send a link to our tips address, tips@grission.com, and we'll try to add it in.

An All-Star season from the second baseman may have created more questions than answers.

Daniel Murphy has been one of the few sources of certainty for the Mets in recent seasons and 2014 was no exception. Murph was selected to his first All-Star Game and was en route to a career season before a calf strain in late August sent him to the disabled list for two weeks and ultimately a poor finish to the year. Despite the slump, Murphy finished 2014 batting a solid .289/.332/.403 in 642 plate appearances, good enough for a 2.8 fWAR, third on the club behind Lucas Duda and Juan Lagares.

A mainstay in the two-spot in manager Terry Collins's lineup, the 29-year-old did a majority of his damage offensively in May and June, hitting .303/.359/.445 with six of his nine home runs in 57 games. Murphy was again a model of consistency across the board, hitting a respectable .274/.325/.370 versus left-handers in 2014 and never batting below .280 in any month before hitting just .191 in 68 September at-bats. Overall, Murphy has been one of the better offensive second basemen in the National League since he started manning the position full-time in 2012, hitting .287/.327/.407 with an average of 9 home runs, 67 RBI, 50 extra base hits and a 107 OPS+, certainly not star-worthy but more than adequate from the position. His 2014 numbers are in line with his previous years and compare favorably to his National League counterparts at the keystone position.

Defensively, Murphy remains mediocre at best, something known and accepted by the Mets. Murph committed 15 errors at second in 2014, one less than in 2013 but across 194 fewer innings. DRS (-10) and UZR (-5.6) paint a rather bland picture of Murphy's work with the leather. Despite his faults and overall sub-par fielding, he is hardly an embarrassment in the field and his above-average offense more than compensates for his defensive shortcomings.

The Mets now face a dilemma, one that theoretically they should not have to deal with as a large-market team. With the Wilpons continuing to express they are not cash-strapped despite numerous examples that say otherwise, Murphy's 2014 $5.7 million salary will go up significantly in his final year of arbitration. A constant member of the trade rumor mill the last few years, Murphy's production as a second baseman may actually punch his ticket out of town thanks to an ever-increasing salary. Barring a contract extension, the Mets will have to finally pull the trigger on a trade or risk seeing one of their homegrown players walk as a free agent after 2015.

Furthermore, the emergence of Dilson Herrera and the availability of players like Wilmer Flores and Matt Reynolds could provide general manager Sandy Alderson with enough of a comfort level to deal New York's lone 2014 All-Star. Whatever the end result, Murphy's status will be one of the most talked-about and watched in an extremely important offseason for the Mets.

Desired 2015 role: Another consistent season leads to a second All-Star game selection.

Projected 2015 role: Starting second baseman and number two hitter—until the trade deadline when he is finally sent packing.

The Amazin' Avenue 2014 Mets Awards—The Piazzas—will be handed out over the next two weeks. Check back every day to see which Mets players take home the hardware.

Welcome to the Amazin' Avenue 2014 Mets Awards, named The Piazzas to honor Mets Hall of Famer, and future Baseball Hall of Famer, Mike Piazza. It's an opportunity to look back at what went right and wrong for the Mets this past season, and also to ogle the awesome Piazza that we will present to each winner (designed by the talented Randy Medina).

The Amazin' Avenue staff voted, and The Piazzas will be handed out as follows:

Best Rookie: Wednesday, October 8
Worst Relief Pitcher: Thursday, October 9
Best Relief Pitcher: Friday, October 10

Worst Starting Pitcher: Monday, October 13
Best Starting Pitcher: Tuesday, October 14
Worst Position Player: Wednesday, October 15
Best Position Player: Thursday, October 16

We'll also provide a poll for each award so you can vote on the community award winners. Good luck to all the players!

Potential free agents will now be a little more expensive for their current organizations to retain.

Major League Baseball and the player's association announced today that the price of qualifying offers made to potential free agents this offseason will be $15.3 million. Last year, the price was $14.1 million, which means the new amount is an 8.5 percent increase. The figure is calculated by taking the average annual value of the top 125 MLB contacts.

If a player is set to become a free agent, his current team may make a qualifying offer within five days after the World Series ends. If the player accepts, he's now on a one-year deal worth $15.3 million. If he doesn't, whomever he does sign with must surrender a draft pick.

This system, which has been in place since 2012, has caused some problems for free agents in past years. Players like Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales rejected their qualifying offers but found themselves in limbo when potential suitors didn't feel like their services were worth losing a draft pick.

The Mets, who have perpetually been awarded picks outside of the coveted top 10 protected slots, missed out on signing Drew and Michael Bourn in past years, supposedly because the club didn't want to lose its first-round picks.

For a team to make a qualifying offer, the player in question must have played for the club for the entire season. Players like Jon Lester who were traded mid-season are not eligible.

Is the new figure good news for the Mets? Maybe. New York will pick 15th in the June 2015 draft, so it would have to lose a pick in order to sign a player who rejects a qualifying offer. Also, this means Daniel Murphy will be more expensive should the Mets opt to retain him. On the bright side, since the figure is higher than it used to be, perhaps fewer qualifying offers will be handed out across the league.

Your Wednesday morning dose of New York Mets and Major League Baseball news, notes, and links.

Meet the Mets

Major League Baseball announced that qualifying offers to potential free agents will cost $15.3 million this offseason. That's a bump of over $1 million from 2013. What does this mean for the Mets?

Prospects Brandon Nimmo and Julian Hilario had nice Arizona Fall League debuts.

Toby Hyde reviews the progress of the Mets' minor league catchers this season.

Mets 360 makes the case for the team to acquire a younger, higher upside outfielder this winter instead of an aging veteran like Michael Cuddyer or Jose Bautista.

Adam Rubin asks the masses which starting pitcher the Mets should trade.

Around the Majors

After Bryce Harper tied Game 4 of the NLDS in the seventh innings with a solo home run, the Nationalsfell behind again on an Aaron Barrettwild pitch. The Giants won 3-2 to move on to the NLCS.

There they will face the Cardinals, who defeated Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers last night on the strength of a Matt Adams three-run home run. Before giving up the tater, Kershaw appeared to be on his way to a dominant shutout.

With a possible all-Missouri World Series looming, Tim Rohan of the New York Times drove across the Show Me State to pen a portrait of baseball fandom there.

Although the postseason has been quite exciting so far, there are some who will still claim that baseball is on the decline. That's not a recent phenomenon.

Josh Hamilton is not happy about being booed while he makes brave attempts to play through injury.

Dan O'Dowd is resigning as general manager of the Rockies.

Around the NL East

The Nationals may have lost to the Giants, but at least Harper reminded us of how awesome he can be with a heroic NLDS performance.

Washington's fate may have been different if manager Matt Williams had decided to use his best pitchers.

The Phillies have hired a new scouting director.

Fish Stripes reviews the 2014 season of switch-hitting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Yesterday at AA

Michael Avallone reviewed the 2014 campaign of Daniel Murphy.

Brace yourself. The Piazzas are coming.

On this date in 2000, Bobby Jones shut out the Giants to clinch the NLDS for the Mets. In 1973, Bud Harrelson beat up Pete Rose.

The 24-year-old broke out big time at the major league level.

It feels like Jeurys Familia has been in the Mets’ organization forever. The hard-throwing right-handed pitcher made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League at the age of 18 back in 2008, and from there, he spent the grand majority of his minor league career as a starting pitcher. In fact, his first professional relief appearances were the ones he made as a September callup with the Mets in 2012.

Before that, Familia was a well-regarded prospect. Though he never quite topped our list of the Mets’ top prospects, he was in or around the top ten in 2011, 2012, and 2013. After a very good year in 2011, Familia struggled to the tune of a 4.73 ERA in Triple-A Buffalo in 2012, but he wound up pitching just nine more minor league innings after that season.

Familia started the 2013 season with the Mets, was sent down to Triple-A Las Vegas for a few games, and rejoined the Mets shortly thereafter. But by early June, his elbow was barking, and he had surgery that cost him most of the rest of the season. He did manage to appear in a couple of minor league games that September and returned to the Mets for one appearance, his last of the year.

Coming off that year, Familia was still prospect-eligible, though we had him ranked 21st before this season began. Here’s what Steve Sypa said of him on our list:

"I'd like to rank Familia higher, but the right-hander has yet to really come into his own despite flashes of brilliance here and there. When he's on, he's on- but the problem is that, be it injury, ineffectiveness, or something else entirely, Familia just hasn't been able to get into the swing of things over the last couple of years. The potential for him to be dominant is keeping him on this list, but with so many questions surrounding him, Familia needs to finally put everything together and silence the critics."

Fortunately for the Mets, that’s exactly what Familia did. As one of the hardest-working relief pitchers in baseball—only six pitchers, including Carlos Torres, threw more relief innings—Familia lived up to the promise that he had shown for all those years in the minors. In 77.1 innings, he had a 2.21 ERA, which ranked 31st among 142 qualified pitchers, and a 3.07 FIP, which ranked 53rd. He struck out 73 (22.7 percent/8.5 per nine) and walked 32 (9.9 percent, 3.56 per nine).

While he wasn’t quite one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, Familia clearly broke out and cemented himself as a major league player. Heading into next year, he’s one of several young relief pitchers who could make the Mets’ bullpen a significant strength all season.

Desired 2015 role: The best relief pitcher on the Mets with improved strikeout and walk rates.

Realistic 2015 role: The second- or third-best relief pitcher on the Mets, which would also be just fine.

There is a good chance that the Hiroshima Toyo Carp post their ace this winter. If so, how interested should the Mets be?

Born April 11, 1988, in Okaka, Japan, Kenta Maeda is currently the ace of the Hiroshima Toyo Carp. The right-hander attended PL Gakuen High School, one of the more successful schools in the annual Summer Koshien tournament over the last thirty years.

The Carp drafted Maeda out of high school in 2006. After spending a season on their ni-gun (secondary team, the NPB equivalent of the minor leagues) team in 2007, the 20-year-old right-hander made his professional debut in 2008. He went 9-2 for the year, posting a 3.20 ERA over 109.2 innings. His performance was a bright spot in an otherwise underwhelming season. In 2009, with the departure of veteran Ken Takahashi to the Mets, the Carp needed Maeda to continue pitching well. Though his win-loss record fell to 8-14 for the year, he improved in virtually every aspect of his game.

Statistically, Maeda had his best season in 2010, winning the Eiji Sawamura Award, the first Central League starter to win the award since 2004 (Kenshin Kawakami) and the first Hiroshima Toyo Carp since 1991 (Shinji Sasaoka). Despite Maeda's performance, the Carp were unable to crawl out of the cellar, actually losing one more game than they did in 2009 because of the loss of Colby Lewis to the Texas Rangers and rotation stalwart Kan Otake to injury. With 15 wins, a 2.21 ERA, and 174 strikeouts, Maeda won the pitching Triple Crown, the youngest pitcher in professional Japanese baseball to accomplish such a feat. In 2011, Maeda had a better season than he did in 2010, but because of specific criteria used to select the Eiji Sawamura Award winner, Maeda was not in consideration—not that it mattered much, as Masahiro Tanaka and Yu Darvish had monster seasons, in part because of the new standardized ball to which NPB transitioned.

The 24-year-old started the 2012 season on the right foot, throwing a no-hitter in his second start of the season. For five innings, he had a perfect game going against the Yokohama DeNA Baystars before walking pinch hitter Yuta Naito and second baseman Takehiro Ishikawa. Maeda kept the magic going throughout the rest of the year, posting a career-low ERA and FIP. Although he was in the Eiji Sawamura Award conversation, the right-hander lost out yet again, this time to Fukuoka Hawks ace Tadashi Settsu. Maeda arguably deserved the award more than Settsu did: Maeda won the same amount of games, posted a lower ERA, threw more innings, walked fewer batters, and struck out more hitters.

Maeda was selected to be a member of Samurai Japan during the 2013 World Baseball Classic and was a member of a formidable pitching staff that included 2005 Eiji Sawamura Award winner Toshiya Sugiuchi, 2009 winner Hideaki Wakui, 2011/2013 winner Masahiro Tanaka, and 2012 winner Tadashi Settsu. Though team coach Koji Yamamoto, himself a former Carp, tabbed then-reigning Sawamura Award winner Settsu as the team's "Opening Day" starter, it soon became apparent that Maeda would be the ace upon whom Yamamoto relied. Maeda held Team China to no runs in five innings in an eventual 5-3 Japan win that saw the Carp ace allow one hit, one walk, and strike out six. His next start came nearly a week later in the tournament's second round. Though he faced a much more formidable Netherlands team in this matchup, the results were more of the same: Maeda gave up no runs while allowing one hit, walking none, and striking out nine.

Based on his dominant performance, Maeda started the semifinal game against Team Puerto Rico. Though Maeda lost and Samurai Japan was denied their third championship in as many competitions, the right-hander pitched admirably: In five innings, he allowed one run on four hits, walking two, and striking out three. The ace started three games and pitched 15 innings in total, the most of an pitcher in the 2013 WBC. His 0.60 ERA was third in the tournament among starters who pitched at least two games, and his 18 strikeouts were the most by any pitcher. As a result, he was named to the All-WBC Team (alongside numerous former and current Mets such as Jose Reyes, David Wright, Angel Pagan, and Nelson Figueroa). Maeda did not suffer any kind of "WBC hangover" (as the media narrative periodically pushes here in the U.S.), turning in yet another successful season that saw him near the top of the leader boards.

The 2014 season was more of the same for the young right-hander. Despite tightness in his right elbow in mid-April,a bruised thigh in late May, and tightness and inflammation in his left side in mid-June, Hiroshima's ace missed only a single start, and avoided being taken off of the active roster to recover. Maeda pitched his way through all of those nicks and dings and is well on his way to posting another plus season. The Carp, surprisingly, have been in the playoff hunt, on the tails of the Yomiuri Giants for much of the season, and Maeda has been a big reason for Hiroshima's resurgence.

*Stats current as of September 25^th, 2014

So, if Maeda does come to play in the United States, what can we expect?

According to a tweet Jeff Passan sent out during the WBC, an anonymous scout said that he/she saw Maeda as a "4^th starter in MLB" at best, citing his fastball velocity. His fastball generally sits around 90 MPH, which is not overpowering for a right-handed pitcher, but tops out a few miles per hour higher, which is generally more than enough velocity to get major league hitters out. The right-hander complements the pitch with a variety of secondary offerings: According to Clint Hulsey, MLB Advanced Media algorithms have identified seven different pitches, while Patrick Newman's NPB Tracker data has identified five.

Maeda throws a slider that averages roughly 80 mph. While generally below average in terms of velocity, the pitch has a lot of movement to it. Jered Weaver throws a slider with similar velocity, but with excellent results thanks to its movement. PITCHf/x data show Maeda's slider as having more movement than Weaver's, potentially making it an above-average major league pitch. Maeda's curveball is also a slow pitch, averaging 70 mph. It has elite vertical drop, and almost as much movement as his slider. Because he throws from a three-quarters release point, Maeda telegraphs the pitch by bringing his release point up to get the necessary vertical movement to make it effective. While he doesn't necessarily get a lot of swings-and-misses with it, he is able to place the pitch with excellent precision despite its movement, resulting in the pitch consistently being thrown for strikes. Maeda also uses a changeup that, at times, looks like his best pitch because it induces some very ugly swings. Averaging slightly over 80 mph (giving it a roughly five-to-ten mph differential compared to his fastball), the pitch has similar movement to Mike Pelfrey's split-finger change. Rounding out Maeda's pitching repertoire is—depending on what pitch tracking algorithm is more accurate—a shuuto, a sinker, and a cutter.

In studying Maeda's PITCHf/x data, Hulsey noticed that the right-hander seems to be aware that he does not have overpowering stuff and, as such, comes to the mound with a definite game plan. Maeda keeps the ball away from hitters' power zones, keeps them off-balance, throws pitches in counts you wouldn't expect them to be thrown in, relies more heavily on his breaking pitches and off-speed offerings than his fastball, and generally makes up for his lack of natural talent with exceptional tact and guile. This would seem to be a definite plus for Maeda from a scouting perspective. Rather than succeeding against inferior hitters with below-average stuff, only to struggle against superior hitters, he should be able to adapt and continue using the approach with which he is familiar.

Scouts and evaluators have cited his height and weight as a red flag, and a potential cause for concern. Maeda stands an even 6 feet tall and for most of his career has been listed at 160 pounds, both of which would be on the relatively small side in MLB. It should be noted that Maeda purposefully put and kept on extra weight during the 2012 offseason, showing up to winter and spring training camps at roughly 180 pounds. Few MLB pitchers have weighed as little as Maeda's listed weight—but 180 pounds, while light, isn't unheard of. Among others, current pitchers Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Mike Leake, and Sonny Gray all are about six feet tall and weigh roughly 180 pounds, as were all-time greats Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez. Not that any of that particularly matters, as Glenn Greenberg found that there was very little correlation between height and weight, and effectiveness and durability in his article "Does a Pitcher's Height Matter?" in the Fall 2010 SABR Baseball Research Journal.

Maeda's slight frame has also caused some concerns about injury risk, especially when combined with the total amount of innings he has logged. Between ages 20 and 25, Maeda has thrown roughly 1,115 innings of work, and that doesn't account for the higher pitch counts or longer bullpen sessions that Japanese pitchers are allowed to undertake. Only a handful of contemporary pitchers in MLB have thrown that many innings between their ages 20 and 25 seasons: Felix Hernandez threw 1,304 innings between 2006 and 2011, Clayton Kershaw threw 1,180 innings between 2008 and 2013, CC Sabathia threw 1,165.1 innings between 2001 to 2006, and Jeremy Bonderman threw 994.2 innings between 2003 and 2008. While Kershaw and King Felix have not yet experienced any real kind of adversity, both Sabathia and Bonderman had the later stages of their careers limited by elbow and shoulder injuries. Fellow Japanese pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Masahiro Tanaka also logged a similar number of innings between 20 and 25: Matsuzaka threw 1,057 and Tanaka threw 1,085. While generally durable in NPB, both have experienced injury woes since coming to the United States.

Maeda reminds Patrick Newman of NPBTracker fame of Kenshin Kawakami, insomuch as he also succeeded with a 90 mph fastball and a variety of off-speed pitches, with no major standout pitch. Though Kawakami's MLB experience was limited, he was a solid mid-rotation pitcher in 2009, throwing 156.1 innings with a 107 ERA+. With age, health, and overall better stuff on his side, it does not seem like a reach to believe that Kenta Maeda can produce similar or better results in MLB.

Does he make sense for the Mets?

So, first things first: Will Hiroshima post Kenta Maeda? We already know that Maeda is interested. Perhaps the first sign was the public spat between he and his team in 2012 regarding his salary. Though he and Hiroshima had no problems earlier in his career—the pitcher became the fastest Carp to reach the ¥100 million mark (roughly $1 million) back in 2010—the team suddenly tightened its purse strings in 2012. Despite being the Central League ERA champion (1.53) and missing winning his second pitching Triple Crown by one win (14, trailing only Yomiuri Giant Tetsuya Utsumi) and one strikeout (171, trailing only Hanshin Tiger Atsushi Nomi), Maeda was only given a ¥50 million raise (roughly $500,000), bringing his 2013 salary to ¥200 million (roughly $2 million). Maeda protested, noting that the Carp seemed to be using evaluation methods that were inconsistent with those used in the past and that downplayed his 2012 accomplishments and success. He held out briefly, eventually agreeing to a ¥210 million salary during a second round of negotiations; but the fact remained that Hiroshima purposefully sought to underpay their ace, creating tension and bad blood.

Right before the 2013 WBC, Maeda mentioned that his experience in the tournament might color his opinion. "I only know Japanese baseball. I might enjoy facing MLB players at MLB stadiums, or I might not," the right-hander said. "It would be nice if I can expand my world with the WBC. It is all experience. It will depend on how I am feeling after it is all done." He was mum on the subject after returning from the competition, but made his desire public in December. After meeting with team officials at Mazda Stadium and agreeing to a  ¥280 million contract—a ¥70 million yen raise, eclipsing Hiroki Kuroda's ¥250 million salary as the most in team history—the former Sawamura Award winner let it be known that he was indeed interested in coming to North America to play with an MLB team. "It would be a lie if I said I did not want to go," Maeda said when asked. "It's something I have thought about for quite some time. The feelings grew stronger after I had a decent outing during the WBC. I do not know how things will go, but I would like to go when I am in a good place. I only have one baseball career. I do not want any regrets. This is not something I can do if I want, so I will continue to discuss things with the organization." Before the 2014 season began, the Hiroshima ace reiterated,

"When it was Nomo, I never thought about it for myself. But then Darvish and Iwakuma went, and when I saw them go, I got the blurry image in my head. Then I pitched in the WBC and that blurry image turned into, ‘I want to pitch there.' I decided ‘I want to go there too' when I heard the news about Tanaka maybe getting posted to the Majors. We're the same age and he's a pitcher that pushes me to do better. I will do my best so that I can go [to the Majors] with people around me cheering for me."

So, what did the Carp think of Maeda's announcement? Most of those asked understandably had little of substance to add. Carp manager Kenjiro Nomura said, "I think it is very important and wonderful for a baseball player to set high goals.  It will be tough on the team if he leaves. But, we have at least one year with him so we will let him to his thing. I cannot say ‘Go' or ‘Stay.' It is his career; he should do as he pleases." Kiyoaki Suzuki, a senior team official, said, "We understand that as a player he would like to make this challenge. We talked about when would be a good time for him to go, considering our team, players and the fans." Team owner Hajime Matsuda said, "I will accept it as a dream, but right now, there are no plans to accept. If the excitement among the fans gains momentum, then there might come a time we have to think about it. Of the twelve NPB teams, we are furthest from a championship. If we can have an overpowering season in all regards, then perhaps."

Realistically, though, regardless of how well or poorly the team does in 2014, posting Maeda would probably be in the best interest of the club. The posting fee that the team would receive in exchange for releasing the pitcher's rights—likely close to the maximum $20 million allowed—would be a major boon to the financially starved organization. The Carp are one of the few NBP teams to not have a true corporate sponsor infusing them with funds. While the "Toyo" in the team name denotes Mazda (the company's official name was "Toyo Kogyo Co., Ltd." until 1984), the automaker owns only 34% of the team, making it a minority shareholder. The Matsuda family (the descendants ofJujiro Matsuda, the founder of Mazda) are the primary owners, possessing a 60% majority share. Though certainly well-off themselves, they do not have the financial power to provide the team with funds like the corporate sponsors of other teams can and do—and it shows. The Carp rarely sign domestic free agents and regularly get priced out of keeping developing stars. The team hasn't finished above .500 since 2001, and owing to a strong division, regularly finish 20 or more games out of first place.

Coming on the heels of Masahiro Tanaka's record-breaking seven-year, $155 million contract, Kenta Maeda is likely to generate enough interest to ink a sizable, if not slightly inflated, contract. Though he isn't on the same level as recent émigrés Darvish, Iwakuma, or Tanaka, Maeda has the potential of being a solid-to-above-average mid-rotation pitcher. He is no Tanaka, however, and talent evaluators are aware of that, so don't expect any team to equal or exceed what the Yankees paid for their star pitcher. The life and structure of Maeda's contract could be similar to Tanaka's—including allowances for moving, housing, interpreters, no-trade clauses, and opt-out clauses—but the dollar values will most certainly differ. That is not to say that Maeda will get peanuts, but rather that it is unlikely that he makes the $22 million dollars per year that Tanaka will make for the majority of his contract.

In theory, the Mets could afford the kind of contract that Maeda will likely sign. Despite being relatively cash strapped, the Mets signed Curtis Granderson, Bartolo Colon, and Chris Young to contracts totaling roughly $30 million dollars. By reallocating money coming off of the books, in Alderson's own words, either through expiring contracts or trades, the team could find the necessary $15 million or so that it would need to pay Maeda. With the relative wealth of quality pitching the team currently has, would acquiring the Japanese ace be a wise use of the limited funds that might be freed up?

At first glance, it would seem almost superfluous. Matt Harvey will return to the mound next season. Bartolo Colon is under contract for one more year, barring a trade. Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and Zack Wheeler all seem to have established themselves as mostly reliable pitching options. Rookie Jacob deGrom experienced a breakout Rookie of the Year-type season and can be expected to return to the mound next year. In addition, youngsters Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Steven Matz, Gabriel Ynoa, and Matthew Bowman are all entering the later stages of their minor league maturation and will soon be ready to contribute at the major league level in some fashion.

Without adding an additional name to the mix, the 2015 pitching rotation is crowded. It's true that, as both sayings go, "you can never have enough pitching" and "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect;" but something has got to give. Trading excess starting pitching for position players that address team needs seems to be the most intuitive fix to this very fortunate problem. Given their MLB experience or potential as prospects, some or all of those named above may be able to bring back significant returns to the Mets, either as individuals or in packages. Were the Mets to sign Maeda, he could probably fill in for most any of those starters without too much, if any, drop in performance

The Mets lost 83 games in 2014, but they gained one of the league's most dominant starters.

Own Disney's Million Dollar Arm on Blu-ray™ and Digital HD today!

Going into the 2014 season, Mets fans already knew who their best pitcher in 2015 would be. Or, at least they thought they knew who that would be. Even though he was on the shelf while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Matt Harvey was king, and nothing could change that. The invaluable breakout start of 2013 struck out 191 batters and walked just 31 during that year while pitching to a 2.27 ERA and 6.0 fWAR.

Maybe if Zack Wheeler broke out in similar fashion, he could change a few fans' minds. He would have to be spectacular though. Well, Wheeler was pretty good in 2014, but he's not the guy who's threatening to take away Harvey's preordained 2015 Opening Day start. It's safe to say that no one saw the Jacob deGrom phenomenon coming.

So is deGrom really the best pitcher on the Mets' roster right now? Even if you assume that Harvey immediately regains his pre-surgery greatness, it's a question worth asking. The rookie's 2.69 ERA and 3.0 fWAR pale in comparison to what Harvey was able to do in his sophomore year, but if you compare rookie season to rookie season, deGrom begins to look favorable.

Harvey was a strikeout beast (10.62 per nine) during his 59.1 innings as a rookie in 2012, but he also walked 3.94 batters per nine innings. The Dark Knight did finish with a 2.73 ERA in the majors that year, but a high strand rate and low BABIP made it seem like he would regress, not improve, in 2013.

Although the hype surrounding Harvey was moderately high entering his sophomore season, it was shocking the way he was able to drastically cut his walk rate while boosting his ground ball rate and continuing to punch out more than one batter per inning. The flame-throwing right-hander appeared to be on a Cy Young pace before the fateful elbow injury was discovered in August.

That brings us back to deGrom. Can he possibly get better next season? It's not like his brilliance was apparent right away in 2014. He struggled with walks in the early going, with 24 free passes surrendered during his first nine starts and then just 19 walks in the next 13 outings. That makes it seem like the Stetson alum can at least lower his walk totals next year.

It will be tough for deGrom to boost the rest of his excellent numbers, but the hope for Mets fans is that he'll continue to grow due to his relative newness to the pitching game. He didn't start pitching until his last collegiate season, and his breaking stuff didn't really come around until this season. Really good breaking stuff is how you go from striking out 7.49 batters per nine in Triple-A in 2013 to 9.24 per nine in the majors in 2014. If deGrom can continue to develop his secondary stuff in concert with his electric fastball, even better times may be ahead in 2015.

Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves, though. We may be in an era of pitching mastery, but the jump Harvey made from his rookie to sophomore season was still rare and remarkable. If deGrom can just replicate his awesome 2014, Mets fans will be over the moon, but there remains the possibility that he gets even better.

So start counting down the days until Opening Day. I was talking to everyone else, Jets fans. I know you guys have already started.

And go get Million Dollar Arm on Blu-ray and Digital HD. Jon Hamm may be a Cardinals fan, but he's delightful.

Your Thursday morning dose of New York Mets and Major League Baseball news, notes, and links.

Meet the Mets

Could the Mets dangle one of their pitchers to the Diamondbacks in exchange for a shortstop? Arizona needs pitching, and the Mets need someone at short.

David Wright feels that expectations will be much higher in 2015 than they were in 2014.

Here's a list of Mets that need to be better next season if the team is to make it to the postseason.

What was Tom Seaver's secret to staying in shape when he played? Reader's Digest Condensed books.

Around the Majors

The Giants' NLCS rotation is set, and it should be no surprise what it looks like. Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright could be in jeopardy of missing the series if his elbow doesn't heal up.

While the Yankees may be pulling out of the Yasmany Tomas sweepstakes, the Padres held another workout with him yesterday.

After the Dodgers' NLDS loss to the Cardinals, it looks like Ned Colletti might be on his way out, while Don Mattingly appears safe.

The Royals will attempt to ink James Shields to a new contract at the end of the season.

While Josh Beckett is set to retire, he'll be known for his postseason exploits that directly—and indirectly—affected Red Sox fans.

Like underdogs? Enjoy the MLB's "villians"? There's a LCS for you.

Around the NL East

The Marlins might be moving starter Nathan Eovaldi to the bullpen next year.

It's going to be a tough NLCS for Phillies fans to watch as they'll be seeing the hated Cardinals and Giants going at it.

Yesterday at AA

Here's a profile of Japanese pitching star Kenta Maeda.

The podcast puts a final bow on the 2014 season.

We hand out our first Piazza of the 2014 offseason, beginning with best rookie.

And here's a look back at Jeurys Familia's rookie season with the Mets.

The shift is fundamentally changing the way that teams play defense. Does the shift work, and have the Mets figured out how to use it?

Shortly after the Mets named Terry Collins manager in November 2010, Andy Martino of the Daily News reported this story from Collins’s days with the Angels:

"Terry Collins and Sparky Anderson, two silver-haired old-schoolers, were talking baseball in Collins' Anaheim office one afternoon in the late 1990s, when Joe Maddon charged in, his mind packed with data and his hands full of paper.

"Collins' bench coach had been studying spray charts of Ken Griffey Jr.'s hits, and noticed that the lefty slugger almost always sent the ball toward right field. So, Maddon suggested, why not shift all the fielders over to the right side? The strategy was not unprecedented - Cleveland manager Lou Boudreau had once employed it against Ted Williams - but it was highly quixotic for the contemporary game.

"Collins looked directly at Maddon and said, ‘Go for it. Do it. Why not? The information is there. Let's work at it.’"

Some fifteen years after Collins’s encounter with Maddon, the defensive shift has become a fixture of the game. In 2011, the shift was used fewer than 3,000 times, according to data compiled by Baseball Info Solutions (BIS); this year, BIS projects that number to be north of 14,000.

What explains this rapid sea change in defensive strategy? In short, the shift works. According to Steve Moyer of Inside Edge (IE),

"Shifts have saved a net of 390 hits this season through Monday [September 8]. If we were to add those 390 hits back into the grand total, the overall MLB batting average would rise to .254 from .252—a significant increase considering we're talking about 146,785 at-bats."

You might expect the Mets to be at the forefront of this successful and cutting edge experiment in defensive alignment, given the analytical approach of their front office and Collins’s early openness to shift. Surprisingly, this doesn’t seem to be the case. The defensive data suggest that, in fact, the Mets use the shift less frequently and less effectively than do most other teams.

According to IE data released last month, the Mets shifted 294 times in 2014 as of September 8. The Mets’ shift total ranked 28th in all of baseball and 13th among NL teams (the latter being a fairer basis of comparison given that AL lineups have an extra hitter).

The Mets also ranked low in shifting efficiency. The team saved just four net hits using the shift, good for 25th in the majors. They also ranked 25th in shifts per net hit saved, a useful stat that expresses these numbers in rate form. On average, the Mets saved a net hit every 74 times they shifted (whereas, for most teams, that number was less than 40).

Unfortunately, publicly available data on the shift are hard to come by. In February, the Hardball Times (HT) released some of its 2013 shift data, whose metrics and methodology differ slightly from those of IE. This is something to keep in mind when comparing the two datasets.

For example, IE’s shift totals include balls hit in and out of play, while HT measures only balls hit in play. Also, HT's numbers do not include net hits saved, although they do include component metrics from which net hits saved can be derived: Along with times shifted, HT provides each team’s opponent batting average on balls in play both with and without the shift on. As Chris Teeter of Beyond the Box Score explains, "Multiplying the BABIP difference score by the total [number of] times the team had the shift on provides the number of hits a team saved (or gave up) by shifting."

HT’s 2013 data suggest that the Mets were slightly more aggressive and effective shifters last year than they were in 2014, relative to the rest of the league. For example, the 2013 Mets shifted 155 times on balls in play, which ranked 17th in all of baseball and fifth in the National League. The Mets ranked 18th in the majors in each of the three efficiency metrics derived from HT’s data: shift advantage (.007, the difference between BABIP without the shift on and BABIP with the shift on), net hits saved (one), and shifts per net hit saved (143).

The two key takeaways from the available datasets are, first, that the Mets don’t shift all that often compared to other teams; and second, that, when they do shift, they don’t get a very impressive return. Moreover, the Mets' relatively weak shift outcomes are not a product of other teams shifting especially well against Mets hitters. In fact, the two Mets most often targeted by the shift—Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson—seem to fare pretty well against it. Moyer reports that, despite facing more than 300 shifts this year, Duda neither gained nor lost any net hits as a result.

BIS data from early June (unfortunately the most recent numbers available on Granderson) show Granderson hitting .381 on grounders and short line drives against the shift in 2014. If anything, other teams seem to be unusually inept at shifting against Mets hitters, which should boost the Mets’ relative shift outcomes.

All that said, it wouldn’t necessarily be fair to blame the Mets’ shifting woes entirely on poor organizational and coaching strategy. As Moyer explains, shift outcomes can be heavily influenced by non-controllable factors (i.e., luck):

"Take a look at the Pittsburgh Pirates. They ranked No. 5 in MLB in total shifts attempted in our sample with 826. But the net result of all those shifts has been -2 hits, meaning the Pirates allowed more hits because of the shift than they would have if they'd been positioned normally.

"It is tempting to conclude that the Pirates are just doing it wrong, or that hitters are finding ways to ‘beat’ their shifts by hitting or bunting the ball where the defenders aren't. But neither scenario appears to be true. After watching hundreds of plays in which the shift failed to prevent a hit, we found that most times the ball just went to a place where it normally wouldn't—the result of a check swing, a broken bat or dumb luck."

The data seem to support Moyer’s argument. Three teams considered to be pioneers of the shift—the Rays, Pirates, and Astros—saw their level of shifting success vary wildly over the last two years. The Rays went from second in net hits saved last year to 26th this year; the Pirates went from ninth to 28th; and the Astros went from 17th to first. (The Mets, always the model of consistency, were in the bottom half of the league in both years.)

While there was a strong correlation between how often a team shifted in 2013 compared to how often it shifted in 2014, there was virtually no correlation year-to-year between its net hits saved or shifts per net hit saved. In other words, teams generally used the shift consistently from year to year, but experienced inconsistent and unpredictable returns.

Interestingly, within each of the last two years, there was a fairly strong correlation between the number of shifts a team employed and its net hits saved—but a weak correlation between shifts employed and shifts per net hit saved. This suggests that, generally, teams will be rewarded by playing the odds and making liberal use of the shift, even if the "bang for the buck" on each shift seems relatively small and hard to predict.

The logical conclusion, based on these findings, is that the Mets should probably use the shift more often than they do. Obviously it’s hard to criticize the organization too harshly for its defensive approach, considering that it has access to so much more defensive data than do we as fans. But it does seem fair to question why the Mets haven’t used the shift more frequently than they have, and what they’re doing to make the shifts they employ more successful.

Fifteen years ago today, Mike Piazza's understudy had the biggest moment of his career: a walk-off home run hit off of Diamondbacks reliever Matt Mantei that sent the Mets to the NLCS.