Your Tuesday morning dose of New York Mets and MLB news, notes, and links.

Meet the Mets

Life after Mets baseball is pretty boring, huh? Well, David Wright is keeping in good spirits by making fun of Matt Harvey!

Gary, Keith, and Ron shared their thoughts on the 2014 season, and they all said that things are finally looking up for the Mets. (Note: Did anyone else notice how audibly excited Keith was when Lucas Duda hit his thirtieth home run?)

Mike Puma says that the Mets must ask themselves five questions during the offseason.

The Mets are reportedly considering adding either Bobby Abreu or Edgardo Alfonzo to their Major League coaching staff next year.

Mike Vorkunov takes a look at a group of Mets who may no longer call Citi Field "home."

Would Daniel Murphy be willing to play left field? Apparently not.

Greg Prince penned one final goodbye to the 2014 Mets.

Around the N.L. East

Federal Baseball takes a look at the N.L. East in 2014, and tries to decipher just how bad it was.

John Stolnis at The Good Phight says that the road ahead for the Phillies is a long and winding one.

The Marlins appear to be preparing to attempt to sign Giancarlo Stanton to a long-term extension.

Around the Majors

The postseason starts tonight!Jon Lester and the A's will take on James Shields and the Royals at 8:07pm ET, in the American League Wild Card game on TBS.

Tim Rohan writes that James Shields has changed the thinking and culture in Kansas City.

Tyler Kepner gives us a playoff primer, thorough the lens of "which fans are the most deserving?"

Ben Lindbergh gives us a fascinating piece on the Pirates sabermetrically-inclined front office.

Controversy magnet Alex Rodriguezwants to be a starter for the Yankees next year, but Brian Cashman says he has to "earn it."

Ron Gardenhire was fired by the Twins yesterday, but hopes to manage elsewhere in 2015.

Grantland posted its gif-filled final power rankings of 2014, and it features a hearty does of AtLOLanta.

Yesterday at AA

Matthew Callan looks back at the 2014 Mets, filtered through the words of Bart Giamatti.

Chris McShane fires up the Player Performance Meters one last time for 2014. Pitchers can be found here, and position players here.

If you have a link or story you think would be a great addition to Mets Morning News, send an email to our tips address, tips@grission.com, and we'll try to add it in.

The young pitcher started slow but got better as the year went along.

With seventeen major league starts under his belt before the season began, Zack Wheeler was no longer considered a prospect back on Opening Day, but he was far from a known quantity. By the end of the season, he looked more and more like the pitcher that many expected him to be back when he was the prospect the Mets acquired from the San Francisco Giants for Carlos Beltran.

Those first seventeen starts, all of which took place in 2013, went reasonably well, though Wheeler wasn’t exactly dominant. Neither his strikeout nor his walk rate was particularly special, and he walked slightly over ten percent of the hitters he faced. But he managed a 3.42 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 100.0 innings of work. While he wasn’t dominant, he at least pitched like a capable major league pitcher, a result that is never guaranteed for any pitching prospect.

In the early going this year, Wheeler looked a lot like the pitcher he was last year. Through his first nine starts, he had a 4.89 ERA and 3.90 FIP, and he saw a slight uptick in strikeouts over last year, he had an 11.8 percent walk rate that was even higher than the poor rate he posted in 2013. But after his ninth start, when his ERA hit its high point for the season, Wheeler pitched quite a bit more effectively.

Photo: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Wheeler made 23 starts after that, and in them, he pitched to a 3.05 ERA and 3.43 FIP. He struck out 24.6 percent of the hitters he faced and walked 9.2 percent, the latter of which still wasn’t great but was an improvement over what he had done before. The highlight of his season was undoubtedly the shutout he threw against the Marlins on June 19. In that game, he struck out eight, walked just one, and allowed only three hits. In total, Wheeler made 32 starts this year, threw 185.1 innings, and finished with a 3.54 ERA and 3.55 FIP.

Park-adjusted metrics weren’t all that high on Wheeler’s season on the whole, though. With a 102 ERA- and 101 FIP-, he rated as a slightly below average pitcher given how he pitched and the parks he pitched in. And his pitch count was, of course, typically on the high side, which explains why he completed six innings in 22 of his 32 starts but completed seven innings just twice.

Here’s how Wheeler compared to the average National League starting pitcher this year.

While Wheeler’s struggles early in the season can’t simply be disregarded, it appears he was an improved pitcher by season’s end. He will turn 25 years old in May, and all of his major rates—strikeouts, walks, home runs, and ground balls—improved from 2013 to 2014.

Desired 2015 role: Number two starter who slots in behind Matt Harvey at the top of the rotation.

Projected 2015 role: Number three starter who builds on what he did in 2014.

Mets fans are hoping that it's not the last award that the right-hander wins this season.

For the second time this season, Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom has taken home the National League Rookie of the Month award. He also did so in July.

deGrom has been awesome since he was initially called up in May, but his September was particularly exhilarating. During four starts, the 26-year-old allowed six runs (five earned for a 1.67 ERA) in 27 innings while striking out 38 batters and walking just six.

It's hard to pick out which of deGrom's outings was most impressive. Was it his eight-inning effort against the Rockies in which he allowed just three baserunners while striking out nine? Those Rockies struggle on the road, so maybe deGrom's 13 strikeouts in seven innings against Miami were more impressive. He allowed three runs in that game, but the way he struck out the first eight batters of the game was memorable and quite fun.

deGrom finished off his season by punching out 10 Braves in six innings during a win on September 21. That marked his fourth double-digit strikeout start in his first 22 outings. Only six pitchers since 1990 have more double-digit strikeout efforts in their first 22 starts. One of those is Matt Harvey, who had five such games.

The fact that he won Rookie of the Month twice in the last three months of the season makes deGrom a strong favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. He'd be the first Met to win the award since Dwight Gooden in 1984. Billy Hamilton of the Reds is also a strong contender for the hardware, but his poor hitting and inefficient baserunning this season will likely get in the way of an excellent defensive season for the center fielder.

Your Wednesday morning dose of New York Mets and Major League Baseball news, notes, and playoff coverage.

Meet the Mets

Congratulations to Jacob deGrom, who won his second Rookie of the Month award, this one for September.

Did the 2014 Mets underperform? That's what Jared Diamond contends, based on the team's run differential.

Mark Simon has a plan to make the Mets a contender and it involves acquiring a pair of slugging bats in RF and at SS. I would certainly be pleased with that offseason.

The A's may be out but there are things that the Mets can learn from them this season.

Bartolo Colon and his wife became United States citizens a few days ago. Congrats, Bartolo and Mrs. Bartolo!

Yesterday At AA

Chris McShane reviewed Zack Wheeler's 2014 season.

Around the Playoffs

What a game in Kansas City last night. The Royalsbattled back from a number of deficits to defeat the Athletics 9-8 in 12 innings. Salvador Perez's double won it for KC as they advance to the AL Division Series.

Around the Majors

David Samson says that Giancarlo Stanton will be on the 2015 Marlins. Take that for what it's worth.

The Braves' hitting coach has resigned.

GM Brian Cashman and the Yankees are working on a contract extension.

Chris Sale and manager Robin Ventura apparently had a heated argument last week.

Want awesome Nationals playoff tickets? You can get them but the price you'll have to pay is...let's go with very high.

If you read an article or find a link that you think would be a great addition to a future edition of Mets Morning News, please forward it to our tips email address tips@grission.com and we'll try to add it in.

The rookie had a breakout season at the major league level.

If you didn’t see Jacob deGrom’s excellent rookie season coming, you were not alone. The 26-year-old was not exactly highly-touted before the season began. Here at Amazin’ Avenue, we ranked deGrom the Mets’ 15th-best prospect. Mets Minors ranked him 16th, Baseball America ranked him 10th, Minor League ball ranked him 12th, and he didn’t make the top ten at Baseball Prospectus, though he was mentioned as one of the players who might play in the majors this year for the Mets. And that was essentially the consensus: deGrom could very well make it as a major league player, but he wasn’t expected to excel.

After impressing in spring training, deGrom was sent back to Triple-A Las Vegas, where he had fourteen starts to finish his 2013 season, to begin the year. In seven starts there this year, he had a 2.58 ERA and 3.73 FIP before he was promoted to the big leagues to take the roster spot of Gonzalez Germen with the expectation that he, too, would pitch in relief for the Mets.

Two days later, Dillon Gee hit the disabled list, and deGrom was slotted into his spot in the starting rotation. He then made his major league debut against the Yankees at Citi Field. In that game, he threw seven innings, allowed one run, struck out six, and walked two. But his next six starts didn’t go nearly as well, as he threw just 34 innings and had a 5.03 ERA over that span.

Photo: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

From that point on, however, deGrom was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. He made fifteen more starts, and the results were superb. With 99.1 innings pitched over that stretch, deGrom averaged roughly six-and-two-thirds innings per start. He had a 1.99 ERA, struck out 110, and walked just 25. Opponents hit a meager .211/.263/.272 against him.

Add it all up, and deGrom had a hell of a rookie year. Over 22 starts and 140.1 innings, he had a 2.69 ERA and 2.67 FIP, struck out 25.5 percent of opposing hitters, and walked 7.6 percent. It wasn’t quite Matt Harvey’s first full season, but deGrom made himself the heavy favorite for the National League Rookie of the Year award.

Hard-throwing pitchers are not a rarity in baseball these days, but deGrom ranked 20th in average fastball velocity among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings this year. He threw that pitch often and complemented it with a sinker, slider, changeup, and curve. He was particularly effective at getting swings-and-misses with the changeup, which he learned from Johan Santana when the two were rehabbing in Port St. Lucie at the same time.

While deGrom’s emergence didn’t quite make up for Matt Harvey’s season-long absence following Tommy John surgery, his starts were a great reason to watch or listen to a game. And his emergence as a major league pitcher makes it a easier for the Mets to deal one or more of their other starting pitchers if they so desire this winter.

Desired 2015 role: Co-ace, alongside Matt Harvey, who matches his overall results from this season.

Expected 2015 role: Solid number two-to-three starter.

The Mets catcher had surgery on his right elbow after missing the final five games of the 2014 season.

A week after completing rookie season, catcher Travis d'Arnaud underwent successful surgery on Wednesday to remove bone chips from his right elbow. According to Newsday's Marc Carig, closer Jenrry Mejia is next in line for surgery after all went well for d'Arnaud, who sat out the season's final five games.

d'Arnaud had surgery today to remove bone chips. Mejia will have surgery tomorrow for his sports hernia.

— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) October 1, 2014

The 25-year-old catcher struggled early during the 2014 season, but he finished the season strong after a brief demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas. He had a .474 slugging percentage in the second half and finished with a .416 mark and a 103 wRC+ for the season.

While Mets fans won't jump for joy at his .242 average and 13 home runs, d'Arnaud finally displayed the power that once made him the top prospect in the R.A. Dickey trade. This surgery should not affect d'Arnaud next season. If anything, the operation could help him throw out more runners.

Your Thursday morning dose of New York Mets and Major League Baseball news, notes, and playoff coverage.

Meet the Mets

Travis d'Arnaud had his elbow surgery yesterday, which was a success.

Jacob deGrom is up for the Players' Choice Award for the NL's most outstanding rookie.

NorthJersey.com named its Mets pitching MVP, who shouldn't be a surprise.

Changes could be on the way to the Mets' bench staff, including at the hitting coach spot.

A poll at NJ.com asks if David Wright and/or Eric Campbell should stay or go. Also, here's a hypothetical look at how the season would be different if Wright were healthy.

More offseason outlooks: Kristie Ackert at the Daily News lists five things Sandy Alderson needs to do to get the Mets to the postseason next year, Ed Coleman at WFAN thinks that it should be an interesting fall for the team, and NorthJersey.com has their take at the job Alderson has ahead of him during the offseason.

Former Met Joe McEwing is in the running to become the Diamondbacks' new manager.

Around the Playoffs

There was no drama whatsoever in the NL Wild Card Game after Tuesday night's AL version ended in walk-off fashion. Madison Bumgarner threw a complete game four-hit shutout, and Brandon Crawford hit a fourth inning grand slam as the Giants crushed the Pirates8-0 to move to the Division Series, where they'll take on the Nationals. Bumgarner celebrated the win by chugging four beers. At the same time.

Around the Majors

Here's a breakdown of Bumgarner's dominant win last night.

Grant Brisbee has a great piece about the maddening nature of baseball.

Pittsburgh's Russell Martin is set to be a free agent. Where could he be headed?

The Angels have announced their rotation for the ALDS.

Despite their loss the other day, the A's will be on the upswing soon with a new group of players.

Who else besides Joe McEwing is in the running for Arizona's vacant managerial spot?

Baseball will experiment during the Arizona Fall League to try to speed up the pace of the game.

So the Twins' Joe Mauer had to switch to first base due to concussion symptoms? A writer in St. Paul said to let him catch again, then had to backpedal to escape the criticism.

Here's a great longform piece about two Braves fans who bonded over their favorite player, Greg Maddux, and the tragedy that struck them just before the 1996 World Series.

Yesterday at AA

Here's our season review looks at Jacob deGrom.

If you read an article or find a link that you think would be a great addition to a future edition of Mets Morning News, please forward it to our tips email addresstips@grission.com and we'll try to add it in.

The first baseman experienced a breakout in his first full season.

Before the start of the 2014 season, the first base position was in question for the Mets. Two candidates were expected to battle each other out for the starting job. After a tumultuous 2013 for both, which included stints in Triple-A, neither Ike Davis nor Lucas Duda seemed to have the inside track to becoming the full-time first baseman. Davis experienced success in 2012, yet struggled mightily in 2013. Duda showed flashes of solid performance in 2011, but struggled to consistently produce. Davis was also the presumed better defender. A platoon was in place to open the season.

On April 4, Duda impressed with a two-home run showing against the Cincinnati Reds. The following day, Davis smashed a pinch-hit, walk-off grand slam. Then, after three weeks of questions about who would play more, the Mets' brass made a decision. On April 18, Davis was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving Duda the job by default. What he did with it was nothing short of spectacular.

Duda hit .223/.352/.415 in 2013, leading some to believe that he'd be the best fit for the job. However, if he were to be the official full-time guy at first base, he'd need to perform better to justify the trade.

In the first month after the trade, the 28-year-old underwhelmed, putting up a .662 OPS in 82 plate appearances. His May as a whole was not very inspiring, as he posted a 99 wRC+. The Mets would need more than league-average performance out of him if they wanted their lineup to be as potent as possible. Then, in June, Duda exploded to the tune of a .956 OPS. His wRC+ leaped to 133 on the season. It seemed as if he had finally arrived. That was only the beginning.

The finest moments of Duda's breakout 2014 season came in a torrid July, during which he hit .293/.396/.610 with seven home runs in 96 plate appearances. In perhaps one of the best two-week stretches any Met had in the entire season, Duda hit all seven of his July home runs between the 18th and 31st, including a huge go-ahead dinger in Milwaukee and a three-RBI day against the Phillies. He slugged .674 with a 201 wRC+ in these 12 games, exciting the fan base with his home-run hitting and run-producing prowess.

Photo: Getty Images

His August wasn't nearly as fruitful as his July, but he finished the year strong, posting a 142 wRC+ in September. His best two moments of the month came in the season's final two games, hitting a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth in the first one, then reaching the 30-homer plateau the next day. All in all, Duda's final season stats are those of a premier first baseman in the National League.

His defense at first was negligible according to defensive metrics; however, it seemed to improve as the year went along.

Duda's breakout does not come without some concern, though. His continued inability to hit lefties, as evidenced by a .516 OPS against them with only two home runs in 125 plate appearances, has put a damper on his status as the actual everyday first baseman of 2015.

Desired 2015 role: Full-time, everyday starting first baseman.

Projected 2015 role: Starting first baseman who may be part of a platoon if he cannot prove he is able to hit lefties.

The New York Mets fired hitting coaches Lamar Johnson and Luis Natera on Thursday, according to a team announcement, though they may remain with the organization in minor league capacities. Jon Heyman of CBS reports that the team hasn't yet chosen a replacement and that most of the rest of the coaching staff is expected to return in their current roles.

"We appreciate the hard work of Lamar and Luis this year at the Major League level," said New York general manager Sandy Alderson. "We hope they will continue to be part of the Mets organization in the future."

The Mets scored 629 runs in 2014, tying them with the Houston Astros for 21st out of 30 teams. On the negative side, David Wright's .698 OPS (101 OPS+) was by far the lowest of his career -- his next-worst was a .771 mark in an injury-plagued 2011 season. Curtis Granderson hovered around a .230 average for the third straight year and offseason addition Chris Young didn't rebound from his poor 2013 campaign as hoped.

On the bright side, though, second baseman Daniel Murphy hit his way into an All-Star berth and Lucas Duda cracked 30 home runs in his first season as an everyday starter. Rookie catcher Travis d'Arnaud (13 home runs, .718 OPS) had a solid year at the plate as well after falling flat in a brief stint in 2013. The 25-year-old also showed improvement in the second half, with a .787 OPS in 53 games after the break.

Johnson, who posted a .754 OPS (109 OPS+) during a nine-year playing career, previously served as hitting coach for the Milwaukee Brewers, Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners. He joined the Mets as a roving instructor in 2005 and replaced Dave Hudgens on the big-league staff in May of 2014. Natera, who has worked for the team since 1990, was also added to the big-league staff in 2014 and was serving as the assistant hitting coach.

Your Friday Morning dose of New York Mets and Major League Baseball news, notes, and links.

Meet the Mets

On Thursday, the Mets made official what we've known for a few days now: Hitting coaches Lamar Johnson and Luis Natera will not be with the big league club in 2015.

The Post is reporting that former Mets infielder Edgardo Alfonzo would be very interested in the hitting coach position if he was offered it.

The Mets are also changing their strength and conditioning coach.

Jenrry Mejia had successful hernia surgery yesterday. He should take just three weeks to recover.

The Star-Ledger wonders if the Mets got what they paid for when it comes to Bartolo Colon.

The Mets are set to make a minor uniform adjustment in 2015.

Around the Playoffs

The Orioles were clinging to a 4-3 lead in the eighth inning, but then their offense erupted for eight runs to bowl over the Tigers, 12-3. Nelson Cruz paced Baltimore with three RBI on a home run and a single. J.J. Hardy also homered.

Later last night, Mike Moustakas hit a go-ahead solo home run in the top of the 11th to pull the Royals ahead of the Angels, 3-2.

It was only Game 1, but it could be a pivotal one for the Angels and Royals, writes Marc Normandin.

Around the Majors

Not only are the Royals very successful at stealing bases, but because they hit so few home runs, they risk less than most teams every time they take off.

One guy on Kansas City who does have some power is Raul Ibanez. However, the Royals left him off their ALDS roster, opting to go with left-handed reliever Tim Collins instead.

Despite the common perception that Billy Beane traded for players like Jon Lester specifically for the playoffs, he insists that was not the case.

With Yom Kippur starting tonight, it's as good a time as any to look at the secret history of Jews in baseball.

Sports on Earth has one important under-the-radar player for each remaining postseason team.

FanGraphs compares the two drastically different Wild Card games we got to see this year.

Die-hard Red Sox fan Ben Affleck refused to wear a Yankees hat during a scene in his latest movie. The problem was that the scene took place in New York. Good thing the Bombers aren't the only team in town.

Yesterday at AA

Colby Conetta reviewed the 2014 season of Lucas Duda.

On this date in 2004, Todd Zeile homered in his final major league at-bat.

Shea Stadium was the pinnacle of the stadium design in the 1960's, but using it to bring a baseball team back to New York was only part of the story.

Fifty years ago this past Sunday, one of the greatest marvels of public works in American history opened its doors in Flushing Meadows park. The stadium, which would eventually be named for lawyer William Shea, was considered an architectural and engineering masterpiece, and was supposed to be the design premise on which all future American stadiums would be built. This week, at Sports on Earth, W.M. Akers asserted that the marvel that was Shea Stadium was more about histrionics from politicians—and promises that the city knew it couldn't keep—than anything else.

Akers explains how famed city planner Robert Moses's grand vision took root in his trying to persuade Dodgers owner Walter O'Malley to move from Brooklyn to Queens, an idea O'Malley despised. Moses had spent years championing Flushing Meadows park as the perfect place for a stadium to be built because of its proximity to the quickly expanding Long Island suburbs. When O'Malley finally packed up and headed west, Moses saw an opportunity—a baseball stadium that he could totally control.

There was, of course, the issue of the legality of Moses's and then-mayor Robert Wagner's push. As Akers explains, the city couldn't use publicly funded money to build a stadium, but what if other ventures paid for the cost?

Only one irritant stood between the city and its gleaming new prize: the law. New York City was prohibited from borrowing money "for the building of a stadium, or docks, or anything similar." (How a stadium and docks are similar remains unclear.) If Wagner could prove that the stadium would pay for itself -- through rent from the sports teams and revenue from other events -- that law could be bypassed. As long as the main tenant was paying, say, $900,000 annual rent, the 30-year bonds would be paid off easily, and the city wouldn't actually have to borrow any money.

...

Robert Moses... was planning his greatest demonstration: a World's Fair in Flushing Meadows, a onetime garbage dump that he had spent years crafting into the city's most highway-accessible park. Though held on the same site as the 1939 World's Fair, the 1964 exposition would be bigger in every way -- generating a projected $6 billion in economic activity for a mere $500 million, $100 million of which would go towards expanding the highways that swaddle Flushing Meadows Park. $12 million for a stadium would be no trouble at all.

Moses managed to get notable names in New York City's inner circles, such as noted lawyer William Shea, Hall-of-Fame executive Branch Rickey, and New York icon Casey Stengel, to back the project. The project was to be a triumph of art and science and bringing in top names made it more palatable in the public eye, especially after the New York Times got on board.

There were dissenters, however, and Moses himself managed to mum many of the critics. The Times couldn't hold out on the story forever, though as it published an article after the stadium's approval with a notable name speaking off the record:

As local newspapers usually are, the New York Times was fully in favor of the new ballpark. The paper waited until the day after the stadium got final approval to ask whether other municipal stadiums were profitable -- most weren't -- and rarely quoted a skeptic, one notable exception being the local businessman who insisted, "Anyone who says the park will pay for itself is crazy. Every municipal stadium in the country is a white elephant."

That skeptic was George Weiss, general manager of the Yankees, who hated to see city money flowing to other teams. By 1961, Weiss had come around, after he was hired by the team finally chosen to occupy the stadium of the future: the New York Mets.

As Moses, Wagner, Shea, and new Mets owner Joan Whitney Payson smiled in front the camera and gave speeches about how Shea Stadium would redefine American architecture, one thing became increasingly clear: The stadium wasn't going to make money.

The last push drove the final price tag for the city's great ballpark to $25,532,000 -- more than double the original estimate. But in the speeches at the dedication on April 16, 1964, no one was talking about cost.

...

As far as the Mets went, the lease was fairly balanced. The team would get every dime of concessions sales, but the city would control the parking. The annual rent, a percentage of the teams' gross receipts, was not to exceed $550,000 -- barely half of what the city had required.

To make up for that deficit, the city estimated the value of its parking rights at $300,000. Whether or not that had any basis in reality, it was enough to declare the stadium self-financing and commit to funding the project, no matter the cost. In a small way, New York set the standard for something that would become an epidemic in the 1990s: a city contorting itself to subvert its own laws, to allow a team to pay it less.

...

Even when the Mets were setting attendance records, Shea was always a money loser, costing the city a reliable $300,000 a year. As inflation spiked, and the $550,000 the Mets paid annually bought less and less, it became clear that the 30-year bonds issued for the stadium could never be paid for as planned.

Ultimately, Shea Stadium was one of the few publicly financed parks where the team paid something, and was part of the beginning of a trend that saw public money being dumped into white elephant sports facilities despite the taxpayers generally balking at the idea. The masterful whitewashing of the media and critics by Moses still stands as one of his greatest feats en route to completing his master plan.

That said, Shea's impact on stadium design could not be argued. Veterans Stadium, Three Rivers Stadium, and Busch Stadium all followed suit, and the allure of the multi-sport facility drove city planners to continue to push for these complexes. In any regard, Shea still stood as a notable marker of the resolve of city officials to make New York the pinnacle of American city planning and construction, but perhaps for many of the wrong reasons.

Jenrry Mejia has been solid as a closer, but not good enough to take Bobby Parnell's job.

The Mets moved Jenrry Mejia to the bullpen in back in May and made him the team's closer shortly thereafter. From the time he was moved out of the rotation through the end of the season, he had a 2.72 ERA and went 28-for-31 in save opportunities. On the surface, it appears that Mejia was a solid closer, but you’ll find some major red flags when you take a closer look.

As a relief pitcher, Mejia had a 1.42 WHIP, which ranks 172nd among the 209 relief pitchers who threw at least 30 innings this season. Opponents hit .263/.333/.368 against him in the role, and gave up 59 hits and walked 20 opposing hitters in 56.1 innings. He converted as many saves as he did partially because he induced a high number of ground ball double plays.

Bobby Parnell, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, should reclaim his role as closer in 2015. He will continue his rehab in spring training and could be ready for start of the the season if he is fully recovered twelve months after the surgery. There's no guarantee of that, but some pitchers have returned that quickly.

Parnell was named the closer before the 2013 season and had the best year of his career. He posted a 2.16 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and 22 saves that season. He also held opponents to a slash line of .211/.260/.294. His development as a closer really took a turn for the better when he unleashed his newest weapon, the knuckle curve. This was a very effective pitch that kept hitters off balance and forced them to look for something other than his high-90s fastball.

In order to analyze the effectiveness of Parnell and Mejia in late game situations, let’s take a look at the difference between them in a statistical category that is important when evaluating closers: leverage, which measures the importance of the situation when a reliever enters the game.

Parnell:

Mejia:

Parnell was much better in high-leverage situations, which is exactly what a team would want from its closer. Obviously it’s impossible to predict whether Parnell will be able to replicate the success he had in 2013 after having Tommy John surgery, but he deserves the chance to prove himself. Mejia still has the chance to improve as a relief pitcher, but he has not done enough to dethrone Parnell as the closer.

The 2014 Mets' run differential suggests that they were better than their 79-83 record indicates, but a closer look reveals that perhaps it's not the case.

The Mets finished the season with a 79-83 record, but had a positive run differential. According to their Pythagorean record, they "should" have finished 82-80, based on the 629 runs they scored and the 618 runs they allowed. On the surface, this appears to be a reason to feel more optimistic about the Mets' season. They were actually better than their record indicates, and maybe that bad luck will even out next season, right? There's just one problem: more sophisticated record estimators suggest that the Mets "should" have won fewer games than they did.

Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal also noticed the Mets' run differential, and he asked Sandy Alderson about it:

The Mets believe in the value of run differential, but they recognize that it can't replace real-life results. In a telephone interview with The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, general manager Sandy Alderson described run differential as "another measurement" to consider.

"Obviously, it's not wins and losses," he said. "It suggests to us that our record was about right or slightly below. As you look at next season, that's somewhat reassuring because it's not a gap that we have to make up."

"Another measurement to consider" is an apt description of Pythagorean record -- it has the right idea, that a team's win-loss record isn't always indicative of underlying performance -- but Alderson might not want to be so reassured. An alternative measure, Base Runs, suggests that the Mets actually overperformed by a few wins.

Base Runs estimates a team's record based on component statistics, removing the effects of sequencing. In the long run, sequencing is random. A team might spread out ten hits in a game and score only one run, or it might bunch up ten hits in an inning or two and score six runs. This is largely random and Base Runs accounts for it. Research supports that Base Runs is the best estimator around (link via FanGraphs).

To loosely analogize the three concepts, a team's actual win-loss record is like batting average, its Pythagorean record is like on-base percentage, and Base Runs is like wRC+. Both of the latter two are an improvement over actual win-loss record, but Base Runs is the king.

Two publicly-available Base Runs estimators are Baseball Prospectus's Third-Order Wins and FanGraphs' BaseRuns. They estimate that the Mets' record should have been 77-85 and 76-86, respectively. Here is a comparison of the various measures:

So instead of underperforming by three wins, the Mets may have overperformed by two or three wins. They probably didn't "deserve" to win 80+ games in 2014. There are reasons to be optimistic about the 2015 Mets, but the 2014 Mets' run differential is not one of them.

This week in 1999: Finally in the playoffs, the Mets continue an improbable run by going deep against The Big Unit.

Within the span of 48 hours, the Metsexecuted a walkoff win in their last scheduled game of the season, flew to Cincinnati for a winner-take-all contest to determine the National League wild card winner, beat the Reds behind an shutout performance from Al Leiter, and hopped another plane to Phoenix to being their first postseason series in 11 years. It was all a bit too much, even by the franchise's own insane standards. "Do they know what time zone they're in," ESPN's Chris Berman wondered at the start of that series, "and do they care?"

Some time between the brief champagne-spraying celebration and the flight to the desert, Bobby Valentine whittled down his playoff roster. Surprise inclusions were Melvin Mora, rookie with only 31 major league at bats, and Bobby Bonilla, professional clubhouse cancer who'd been injured most of the season. Bobby Jones did not make it, despite working his way back from shoulder issues by the end of the season. Billy Taylor and Chuck McElroy, two relievers acquired at the deadline to provide some relief to an overworked bullpen, were also left off the playoff roster after proving themselves all but useless.

The Mets' next challenge came against a team that hadn't even existed the last time they made the playoffs. The Arizona Diamondbacks were in their sophomore year, but—like many teams with deep pockets in the late 90s—were able to spend their way into contention in a hurry. For 1999, they traded for speedy leadoff man Tony Womack, signed Gold Glove center fielder Steve Finley, and bolstered their starting rotation with Todd Stottlemyre.

Arizona also received sizable contributions from unlikely sources. Second baseman Jay Bell was a capable veteran, but no one foresaw him belting 38 homers in 1999. Even less was expected of outfielder Luis Gonzalez, who'd done little of note in nine seasons with the Astros, Cubs, and Tigers. He proceeded to lead the NL with 206 hits and drive in 111 runs. Along with All Star third baseman Matt Williams (35 homers, 142 RBIs), Gonzalez, Bell, and Finley made for a fearsome heart of the Diamondbacks lineup.

Arizona's biggest free agent pickup, in every sense, was Randy Johnson, the 6'10" lefty who mercilessly mowed down batters with a triple-digit fastball and unhittable slider. In his first full season in the National League, the Big Unit led the senior circuit in ERA, innings pitched, complete games, and strikeouts. In the modern era, only Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan had racked up more Ks in a season than Johnson's 364 in 1999.

Unlike the Mets, the Diamondbacks earned their playoff spot well in advance of the end of the regular season, reeling off 100 wins to take the NL West by 14 games. That allowed them to throw a well-rested Johnson in game one, while the Mets went with Masato Yoshii simply because it was his turn to start.

Two full playoff games had been played to their conclusion—the Astros shocking Greg Maddux in Atlanta, the Yankees pummeling the Rangers per usual—by the time the first pitch was thrown at Bank One Ballpark, 11:09pm on New York clocks. The late start led to many Won't somebody please think of the children? editorials in the local sports press.

Those able to stay up saw the Mets once again jump out to an early lead thanks to Edgardo Alfonzo, who stunned Johnson by taking him deep to straightaway center in the top of the first. Johnson was stunned further in the top of the third inning, when John Olerud clubbed a two-run shot into the right field bleachers, the first home run he'd given up to a lefty on over two years. Arizona scratched out a run against Yoshii in the bottom half, but the Mets got it right back in the fourth when Robin Ventura doubled (something else a lefty batter was not supposed to do against Randy Johnson), moved to third on a Shawon Dunston infield single, and scored on a safety squeeze.

That stretched New York's lead to 4-1, but just when it looked like the Mets might cruise to a win for once, the Diamondbacks began to pummel Masato Yoshii. An Erubiel Durazo solo shot cut into their lead in the bottom of the fourth, and a two-run 452-foot moonshot off the bat of Luis Gonzalez in the sixth made that lead disappear completely.

The Mets' bullpen halted the scoring there and kept the score tied in the seventh and eighth innings. This relief work was crucial because Randy Johnson knuckled down after his rough start, throwing up zeroes through the eighth inning and racking up 11 Ks. He'd lost five consecutive playoff games for Seattle and Houston (most of those L's coming through hard luck circumstance) and appeared bound and determined to not lose another one.

Johnson entered the top of the ninth with 120 pitches under his belt and the mien of a man possessed, but his evening took a turn for the worse in the blink of an eye. Robin Ventura hit a leadoff single, and Rey Ordoñez snuck his own one-out single through the infield. A Melvin Mora walk loaded the bases, put the go-ahead run one sac fly away, and finally ended Johnson's outing.

Arizona's closer, Matt Mantei, was up and throwing in the bullpen. He'd been acquired at the trade deadline for occasions such as this. But rather than go with his best reliever, manager Buck Showalter turned instead to Bobby Chouinard, a righty who'd made the playoff roster by the skin of his teeth.

Showalter was almost saved by Matt Williams, who flashed leather on a sharp grounder by the first batter Chouinard faced, Rickey Henderson. The third baseman went to his knees, speared the ball, and shot up in time to throw home for a force out. It was an amazing play that sent the crowd into a frenzy and preserved the tie—for roughly 30 seconds.

Chouinard fell behind 3-1 to Edgardo Alfonzo, which left him little choice but to offer this dangerous batter a fat fastball. Fonzie clubbed it into the second deck in left field for a backbreaking grand slam. Diamondbacks fans immediately began filing for the exits, unwilling to watch Armando Benitez put a bow on an 8-4 Mets win.

It was a ridiculous outcome, besting Randy Johnson on the road in a late-night playoff game, but no less ridiculous than anything else the Mets had done in the last week.

In game one, everything broke the Mets' way. In game two, nothing did. This sudden reversal of fortune was attributed to starting pitcher Kenny Rogers, infamous for his ugly postseason performances with the Yankees.

The Mets threatened several times in the early innings against D-Backs pitcher Todd Stottlemyre, who was on the mound despite a 70 percent rotator cuff tear (he opted to compensate for the injury by strengthening his upper body rather than undergo the risk of shoulder surgery). However, an RBI groundout in the top of the third would be the extent of the damage they'd inflict on him.

Rogers held Arizona in check until the bottom of that inning, when he allowed them to mount a costly rally. After retiring the first two batters, he loaded the bases on a hit batter and two singles, walked Greg Colbrunn to force in a run,and followed that by giving up a two-run hit to Steve Finley. Replays showed the second runner was probably tagged out before he touched the plate, but the umps saw things differently.

In the top of the fourth, the Mets made some noise when Robin Ventura worked a leadoff walk and Darryl Hamilton reached on an error. But when Roger Cedeño missed a sac bunt attempt, Ventura was picked off of second. At least he was according to the umpires. Replays indicated he made it back to the bag safely, but replays counted for little in 1999.

So many close calls had favored the Mets of late (see: John Franco's called strike three against the Pirates), it was simply their turn to draw the short straw. They would not threaten again, while Arizona ran away with things. In the fifth, Rogers and Pat Mahomes conspired to allow two more runs, both scoring on another Finley hit. Rookie Octavio Dotel pitched like the nervous kid he surely was and allowed two more runs in the seventh. The Diamondbacks went on to win, 7-1.

The Mets proclaimed themselves happy to leave Arizona with a split, a reasonable point of view that infuriated sports scribes who wanted the team to exhibit more of a killer instinct. "Is there any sense of urgency," grumbled one, "or do they see anything from this point on as gravy?"

It remained for the Mets to prove otherwise when they returned to Queens, to play the first postseason games at Shea since 1988. And for good measure, they'd have to do so while hurdling the sudden loss of their biggest bat.

The 27-year-old rookie hopes his 2014 solidifies a spot on next year's club.

One man's junk is another man's treasure. So it went for Eric Campbell, who made his major league debut for the Mets after the early-season struggles of Josh Satin became too much for the club to carry. A veteran of seven minor league seasons and more than 2,600 at-bats, Campbell debuted on May 10 by lofting a pinch hit, game-tying sacrifice fly in an eventual 5-4 loss to the Phillies at Citi Field.

The 27-year-old carried a career minor league batting line of .284/.380/.416 in 661 games prior to joining New York, including .355/.442/.525 in 33 games with Triple-A Las Vegas prior to his promotion. Campbell continued his strong play with the stick, hitting .340/.386/.447 before the All-Star break before plummeting to earth with a .172/.247/.253 line in the second half. Overall, Campbell hit .263/.322/.358 with three home runs and 16 RBI in 190 at-bats, numbers that may give him a leg up on the competition for next year's bench.

Injuries to David Wright, struggles by Lucas Duda against left-handers, and the ultimate failure of Chris Young provided Campbell with more playing time than the Mets likely envisioned. His versatility gave manager Terry Collins options, allowing New York's skipper to use Campbell at every position except catcher, and as a pinch hitter the Norwich, CT native hit .286/.421/.393 in 28 at-bats, proving useful when called upon.

Photo: Getty Images

Campbell's ability to play around the diamond—and doing so adeptly per DRS and UZR—only helps his 2015 chances. Though he certainly won't be winning any Gold Gloves, Campbell more than held his own and did little to embarrass himself with the leather.

An interesting notation to his 2014 and future coincides with the progress of Duda. Despite a 30-homer campaign from the big left-hander, Duda struggled mightily against southpaws in 2014, leaving some to wonder if the Mets will be better served having a platoon at first base. After playing above-average defense at first, Campbell could find himself in the starting lineup against left-handed pitchers if Duda proves unable to handle them.

Desired 2015 role: Key right-handed bat off the bench, providing defensive versatility.

Projected 2015 role: Right-handed bat off the bench, spelling Duda against tough left-handers.

Mets fans remember where they were for two of Carlos Beltran's biggest moments in Mets games.

All Mets fans can remember where they were that night in autumn 2006 when Adam Wainwright dropped an eyes-to-knees curveball on Carlos Beltran, falling into Yadier Molina’s glove as our hearts fell into our stomachs.

Despite all the success and excitement of that 2006 Mets team, it’s that one moment, the heartbreaking instant of their elimination, that sticks out the most. The Amazins won 97 games that year, captured the NL East title, and swept the Dodgers in the Division Series before falling in a seven-game NLCS against a Cardinals team that won just 83 games in the regular season. Beltran, following a fantastic regular season output of 41 home runs, 127 runs scored, 116 RBI, and a 150 OPS+, actually performed pretty damn well in October. He swatted three home runs with a 1.054 OPS in the NLCS battle with the Cards and was even responsible for the Mets’ lone run in the ill-fated game seven.

But the season came down to that bottom of the ninth at-bat against the rookie right-hander Wainwright, with two outs and the bases loaded, facing a two-run deficit. The team MVP failed when we needed him most, and didn’t even muster a swing against Wainwright’s devastating curveball.

Of course, the Mets’ failure to advance that year cannot be pinned solely on the Beltran strikeout. Matthew Callan’s refreshing dose of objectivity and sanity on this issue exposed how there were many factors working against them in that series, not the least of which was Aaron Heilman—who had replaced faltering closer Billy Wagner—surrendering a tie-breaking two-run home run to 23-year-old Yadier Molina in the top of the ninth. We focus on Beltran, though. The team’s best player managed to find himself in the center of a huge moment in Mets history and froze like a deer in headlights.

Beltran signed a seven-year contract with the Mets following a breakout 2004 season in which he hit 38 home runs and shined in his first appearance in the postseason spotlight. In June of that year, the Houston Astros acquired the 27-year-old switch-hitting center fielder from the Royals as the centerpiece of a three-team deal, in which they only sacrificed a couple of familiar but unspectacular names in Octavio Dotel and John Buck, oddly enough. Free from the losing atmosphere of Kansas City, Beltran took off in Houston. He smacked 23 long balls and stole 28 bases in just 90 games after the trade, compiling a .258/.368/.559 slash line; he then thrashed his way through the postseason to the tune of a .436 average and eight home runs in 12 games. The Astros’ playoff run was cut short by none other than the Cardinals, as St. Louis silenced Beltran in a game seven NLCS victory.

During the ensuing offseason, in the heart of his prime and having just earned national attention for his postseason prowess, Beltran signed a seven-year, $119 million dollar contract with the Mets, the biggest in franchise history at that point. His steady ascent to superstar status was temporarily abated in his first year in Queens, though. His graceful, outwardly assured playing style appearing nonchalant to the intensely-scrutinizing eyes of the New York media and fans, leading some to prematurely label Beltran a bust as his performance dipped significantly. His power faded, his walk rate dropped, and he ended up hitting a solid-but-not-$100-million-worthy .266/.330/.414. After shaking off his rough first year, Beltran positively exploded in 2006 with an MVP-worthy performance and teamed up with fellow Puerto Rican native Carlos Delgado to lead the Mets to their first playoff run since 2000.

The Mets haven’t made it back to the postseason since then, making the sting of that ‘06 series and its final out even more enduring. Beltran’s Mets career ended in 2011 when he was traded to San Francisco; and while his overall performance through seven distinguished (though injury-plagued) seasons in Queens leaves him among the five best position players in franchise history, many fans’ memories of him are embittered to a certain degree by that notorious backwards K against the Cards.

Photo: Getty Images

All Mets fans remember where they were that Friday night in 2012 when Beltran returned to Queens for the first time since his Mets career had ended.

Once again Beltran found himself at the center of one of the biggest moments in Mets history. Leading off the sixth inning against Johan Santana, he laced a curving liner that smacked the chalk of the left field foul line. It would've been the visiting team’s first hit of the game, except umpire Adrian Johnson erroneously ruled it a foul ball. Replay review having yet to be instituted in the rule book, the botched call enabled Santana to continue his pursuit of what eventually became the first ever no-hitter for the Mets' franchise.

The defending champion St. Louis Cardinals came into Queens that night boasting the National League’s highest-scoring offense. Their newest free agent acquisition, Carlos Beltran, was leading the league in home runs. Two other key culprits from the unforgettable ’06 defeat, Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina, formed the Redbirds’ battery that night.

Not only did Santana mow down the mighty Cardinals—holding them hitless and striking out eight while walking five—but Mets hitters got to beat up on Wainwright for seven runs. Beltran’s apparent double was cancelled. Yadier Molina’s seventh inning deep drive to left (oh no, not again!) was snatched by Queens native Mike Baxter in collar bone-cracking desperation. Had the baseball gods granted the Mets a smidgen of redemption?

Considering how the memories and repercussions of that painful 2006 playoff defeat lingered in the minds and hearts of Mets fans to that point, it does strike one as pretty curious as to how the momentous 2012 no-hitter unfolded. The 2006 defeat at the hands of the Cardinals in that NLCS was the Mets’ last playoff appearance and, following epic late-season collapses in 2007 and 2008, they were in the midst of a long (and still ongoing) stretch of losing seasons. While there have been some enjoyable individual accomplishments along the way—Jose Reyes’s batting title, R.A. Dickey’s Cy Young, Matt Harvey’s huge breakout—the Mets of the 2010s have trudged a vast desert of losing and frustration.

In the middle of that span of losing and typical #LOLMets embarrassment came that one shining moment. The importance of Johan’s no-hitter cannot be overstated. Frame that one game. It was about as rewarding and memorable a regular season game as the Mets have ever had—a pitching-rich franchise finally achieving its first no-hitter, during its 50th anniversary season.

That Terry Collins lifted the reins off Santana, who was coming off shoulder surgery, speaks volumes about the historical importance of that one game. Always a palpably intense competitor—he famously pitched with a torn meniscus while trying to carry the Mets back to the playoffs late in 2008—Johan literally pitched until his arm fell apart that night. Afterward, he told the New York Times, "I know how much this means to New York and to the New York Mets." That game most likely ended his major league career (he had an 8.27 ERA in 10 starts afterward and hasn’t returned since).

One historic June game during a lost season doesn’t make up for losing a pennant, of course. And yet I see the ’06 failure and the Johan no-hitter as bookends in some weird way. The no-hitter, and a big blown call going against Beltran to make it happen, seemed to allow some semblance of closure for autumn 2006.

*   *   *

When Beltran returned to Queens as a St. Louis Cardinal, he was asked about Mets fans who were still upset about the 2006 strikeout. His response: "Get over it." He told the Daily News:

"What happened in 2006, you have to turn the page. That’s over. We can’t bring 2006 back to 2012. It has been six years. If they want to continue to think about that moment, then that’s their problem."

A montage of his Mets career, excluding the Wainwright strikeout, was displayed before the game and Beltran actually received a mostly warm welcome from fans. He was starting in center field for St. Louis, the first time all season that he manned his old position.

In his first plate appearance, Santana threw a pitch that severed Beltran’s bat. Mets announcers caught Beltran lamenting, "that was my favorite bat." It would be that kind of night for Beltran and the Cardinals.

Beltran led off the sixth with that now-famous line drive to left and his normally stoic face expressed a hint of shock and frustration when ump Adrian Johnson called it foul. Third base coach Jose Oquendo and manager Mike Matheny argued vociferously for a bit, but the call would stand. A recent study of no-hitters by Zachary Levine at Baseball Prospectus indicates that, at that stage in the game, there was less than a five percent chance of Johan completing a no-hitter.

Yet the blown call would loom large. The Mets' broadcast booth noted its potential historical importance immediately after it happened. Beltran’s would-be double and his role at the center of another historic Mets moment received plenty of media attention in the aftermath of the no-hitter. Some considered the achievement to be tarnished but, as Matthew Callan wrote, "Attaching an asterisk to Santana's no hitter obliquely insists that every other no hitter has been free from questionable calls, an assumption that is specious at best." It wasn’t even the only blown call in that ballgame: While it had little impact on the no-hitter, replays showed Shane Robinson was clearly struck on the hand in the eighth; the home plate ump missed it and he eventually struck out.

The next-closest opportunity to break up the no-no came in the seventh when Yadier Molina launched a pitch to deep left that looked like it would go over Mike Baxter’s head. Instead, Baxter risked life and limb to assure the no-hitter would continue, smashing into the wall after reaching out to make the catch.

With two outs in the eighth, Santana seemed to be running out of gas in his valiant effort to make Mets history. After Terry Collins went to the mound to check on him and said "you’re my hero," it was Beltran who he had to face next. After getting ahead on him with two strikes, Santana got Beltran to hit a weak liner to second. One could only imagine how much hate would’ve rained down upon Beltran had he broken up the no-hitter at that crucial point. Santana cruised through a perfect ninth, and history was made.

The Cardinals were the defending champs and would eventually go on to another NLCS that year. The Mets finished fourth in the division and had their fourth-straight losing season. But perhaps some vexing ghosts were exorcised that night. It’s certainly peculiar that all three figures—Beltran, Wainwright, and Molina—from that final agonizing moment in ‘06, the very last playoff pitch at Shea Stadium, were there to face the Mets in Queens that night, only to be thwarted. Despite Beltran’s best efforts to the contrary, the baseball gods saw fit to allow the Mets a hint of retribution.

The 2006 Game 7 loss and the 2012 no-hitter remain linked in my mind. They are perhaps the two biggest moments in the last decade of Mets baseball, and Carlos Beltran will forever be linked with both.

The pitcher's last appearance came on April 19, 2013, as a member of the Dodgers.

At the age of 40, Octavio Dotel has announced that he has retired from baseball. He last played early in the 2013 season. Twenty-one years ago, the Mets signed Dotel, a Dominican pitcher who was then a 19-year-old. He will always stand as a part of one of the most memorable games in franchise history.

Dotel's first major league start came on June 26, 1999, against the Braves, with the opposing pitcher just happening to be future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine. Dotel didn't last long, allowing six runs and five hits over four-and-one-third innings as the Braves won 7-2. He'd win his next start against the Marlins—a 12-8 Mets win—despite giving up five runs and six hits over five innings.

That's what you got with Dotel during his year as a Met. Some days he would show the promise of being a somewhat decent part of the rotation, but other days he would get shelled. He was later moved to the bullpen in favor of the team's more veteran arms.

For everything Dotel may or may not be remembered for as a Met, he'll be remembered as the winning pitcher in the memorable "Grand Slam Single" game on October 17, 1999. In that one, he came on in the thirteenth inning and allowed one run on four hits over three innings of work, with the run scoring in the top of the 15th on a Keith Lockhart RBI triple. The rest is history.

That turned out to be Dotel's final game with the team as he was traded with Roger Cedeño in the offseason to the Astros for Mike Hampton and Derek Bell. He'd go on to play for a total of thirteen teams over the course of fifteen seasons, won a World Series with the Cardinals in 2011, and was part of Houston's combined no-hitter of the Yankees on June 11, 2003. And for his career, he had a 3.78 ERA and struck out batters at a rate of 10.82 per nine innings.

The journeyman relief pitcher had the best year of his career at the age of 36.

You probably didn’t know who Buddy Carlyle was before the Mets’ 2014 season. Drafted in the second round of the 1996 draft by the Cincinnati Reds, the 36-year-old has bounced around organizations—including one in Japan—over the course of his long professional career. He made his major league debut in 1999 for the Padres at the age of 21 and threw 37.2 innings with a 5.97 ERA while he was there. He pitched just three innings in the big leagues the following year and did not return until 2005.

Even then, Carlyle only threw fourteen innings. He didn’t pitch in MLB in 2006, but he made twenty starts and two relief appearances for the Atlanta Braves in 2007 but struggled to the tune of a 5.21 ERA in total. He had a good year out of Atlanta’s bullpen with 45 appearances in 2008 but really struggled in a brief stint in their bullpen in 2009.

Carlyle next resurfaced at baseball’s highest level in 2011 with the Yankees, but he threw just seven-and-two-thirds innings for them that year. He pitched for the Braves' Triple-A affiliate in 2012 and the Blue Jays' Triple-A affiliate in 2013. So when the Mets signed him in the middle of February this year, there was understandably little fanfare. But he did with the Mets this season was a significant—and pleasant—surprise.

Sent to Triple-A Las Vegas to start the year, Carlyle had a 1.27 ERA through his first eighteen appearances for the team. That earned him his first trip to the big leagues when the Mets needed an arm after a fourteen-inning loss to the Phillies in the late May. He made just two appearances before the Mets sent him back to Las Vegas, the first of which saw him pitch three scoreless innings in relief and the second of which one-and-one-third scoreless.

Photo: Getty Images

Carlyle rejoined the Mets in early July, and despite a DFA in the middle of the month, he made only major league appearances for the rest of the year—thanks, in part, to the injury sustained by Daisuke Matsuzaka not long after he had been designated for assignment.

In total, Carlyle threw 31 innings for the Mets over 27 appearances and had a 1.45 ERA and 2.65 FIP. He struck out 23.5 percent of opponents and walked just 4.2 percent. It was undoubtedly his best season as a major league pitcher. It wasn’t just the best of his career, though. Among 209 relief pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched this year, Carlyle ranked 11th in ERA, one one-hundredth of a run behind Greg Holland for 10th.

He did so using his four-seam fastball, which he threw nearly 60 percent of the time, a sinker, and a cutter. On a few rare occasions, Carlyle mixed in a curveball or a changeup. In terms of swings-and-misses, the cutter and four-seam were his most effective pitches. While the data for his career in the PITCHf/x era—which began in 2007—is fairly limited, his swinging strike rates by pitch type this year were far different from those of his major league career before 2014.

All of that leaves the Mets with a bit of a tough decision on Carlyle this winter. The journeyman is out of options, which means that the Mets would at the very least have to get him through waivers in order to send him to the minors next year. If retained, Carlyle figures to remain an affordable pitcher, even as he enters his second year of arbitration. The Mets also have a bit of a 40-man roster crunch coming up, as they need to add several minor league players to the roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft but don't have a ton of room to work with.

Desired 2015 role: One of the best relief pitchers in baseball, of course!

Realistic 2015 role: A viable major league relief—and occasionally long-relief—pitcher, possibly in another organization.

Héctor Olivera, one of Cuba's more well-rounded players, has recently defected from the island nation. When his services become available, would he be worth investing in?

Born April 5, 1985, in the southern city of Santiago de Cuba, Héctor Olivera Amaro is the son of Héctor Olivera Sr. (Héctor Olivera González), a star third baseman in the 1970s and 1980s who hit a cumulative .316/.397/.464 over the course of his career. Following in his father's footsteps, the junior Héctor Olivera pursued baseball and earned a roster spot on Las Avispas (the Wasps), the team representing Santiago de Cuba in La Serie Nacional.

Héctor Olivera made his professional debut in the 43^rdSerie Nacional (2003-2004) at age 18. He hit the ground running in his rookie campaign, hitting .319/.367/.445. In addition to providing his team a great deal of value with his bat, Olivera demonstrated a great deal of positional versatility, logging time at first base, second base, shortstop, third base, and left field over the course of the season. The following year, newly installed manager Antonio Pacheco decided to make Olivera the team's regular second baseman. The youngster logged an even more impressive sophomore season, hitting 326/.362/.454 and belting six home runs. Of his 108 hits over the course of the season, none were more important than his very last. Santiago de Cuba had made the finals and were up 3-2 on the now-defunct Los Vaqueros de La Habana in the best-of-seven series. In the ninth inning of game six, Olivera led off the inning with a single and scored the clinching run.

The second baseman had his first real down year during the 45^thSerie Nacional (2005-2006), hitting .262/.351/.364 with five homers. Adding insult to injury, Santiago de Cuba made the finals, but lost to Los Industriales. In American baseball parlance, this would be akin to the New York Yankees beating the Boston Red Sox in the World Series (if that were possible). Las Avispas for get their revenge, though, as they won the championship the next year, beating those very same Industriales. Olivera had a better season as well, hitting .315/.372/.412 with eight home runs.

In the 47^thSerie Nacional (2007-2008), the second-generation ballplayer had his first All-Star season—in part because of the introduction of a new ball that led to an offensive explosion throughout the league and in part because of his own blossoming baseball talents. In 96 games, Olivera hit .353/.467/.542, roughly 30 points higher than his career-best average, 100 points higher than his career-best on-base percentage, and 100 points higher than his career-best slugging percentage. His 11 home runs were a then-career best, and his 21 steals (in 29 attempts) remain a career high. As was the case during the 44^thSerie Nacional (2004-2005), no hit was as important as his very last one. With Santiago de Cuba in the finals once again, Olivera reached on a fielder's choice in the bottom of the eighth, stole second, and came around to score the deciding run, giving the team its third championship in four years.

From that point on, the second baseman became one of the preeminent players in Cuba. From the 48^th to the 51^stSerie Nacional (2008-2009 to 2011-2012), the second baseman averaged a .331/.428/.579 slash line, hitting 18, 14, 16, and 17 home runs in each of those respective four seasons. His name regularly found itself high atop the leader boards, surrounded by such high-profile names as Alfredo Despaigne, Yulieski Gourriel, Frederich Cepeda, and Alexei Bell.

Olivera missed the entire 52^ndSerie Nacional (2012-2013) season, as well as the 2013 World Baseball Classic, due to thrombosis in his left bicep, a condition in which a clot forms inside of a blood vessel and obstructs the flow of blood to the area. The middle infielder returned to the field the following year and did not miss a beat, despite not having played in over a year. Olivera logged another season hitting over .300, and though his home run total dropped to only seven, he still slugged a robust .474.

In addition to years of domestic competition, Olivera is no stranger to international competition, having been a member of the Cuban national baseball team for years. Over roughly the last decade, he has played in numerous high-profile international competitions including, but not limited to, the Baseball World Cup, the Intercontinental Cup, the Olympics, the World Baseball Classic, and the World Port Tournament.

Olivera participated in the 2009 WBC, the tournament in which Samurai Japan defeated the Cuban national team twice in the second round to eliminate them from the competition. Penciled in as the starting second baseman, Olivera played in four games. In his 16 at-bats, he hit .313/.389/.500, notching five hits and walking twice. On March 8 against South Africa, Olivera led off the game with a single off of Barry Armitage, walked in the third, and hit a solo home run in the fifth off of Donavon Hendricks. On March 10 against Australia, Olivera drew a walk in the seventh inning against Damian Moss. On March 16 against Mexico, he singled in the third and the fifth, both hits coming off of Jorge Campillo. On March 18 against Japan, he singled in thefifth off of Hisashi Iwakuma.

Héctor Olivera is a fairly well-rounded player and, as a result, Baseball America ranked him the sixth-best baseball player in Cuba back in late August. With his ability to hit for average, hit for power, and get on base at a high rate, the second baseman sat near the top of numerous offensive categories—for both his team and the league—during his career in Serie Nacional.

At the plate, the right-hander exhibits above-average plate recognition and zone awareness, no doubt due in part to working with his father, whose .459 batting average during the 1980 Series Selectivas (a now-defunct summer league that ran yearly from 1975 to 1995) remains a Cuban record. Olivera possesses decent pop for a middle infielder, but it is important to keep his home run numbers in context—stadiums in Cuba are generally smaller than MLB parks. Guillermo Moncada Stadium is the second-biggest in Cuba, and yet it is roughly 320 feet down the lines and 400 feet to straight-away center.

Defensively, scouts have generally been indifferent about Olivera's ability to play second base. In the time that scouts have had to form their opinions, Olivera has neither impressed nor humiliated himself. He is seen as athletic and able to handle the defensive rigors of second base, but unlikely to excel defensively. In addition to manning second base for Las Avispas, Olivera has logged varying amounts of time at both corner infield spots and shortstop, as well as spending time as DH.

The middle infielder only recently defected, so his impact in MLB is still a ways off. Generally speaking, the process can take anywhere from a few months to a year or so, depending on how quickly Olivera can establish permanent residency in a new country, how quickly the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control vets his paperwork for his unblocking license (and whether or not any irregularities turn up), how quickly MLB grants him free agent status, and how aggressive he markets himself and how MLB teams respond.

Does he make sense for the Mets?

Though he has gotten token time at other positions, Olivera is primarily a second baseman. With 2014 All-Star Daniel Murphy the incumbent second baseman, and prospects Wilmer Flores and/or Dilson Herrera ready to step up should Murphy be traded, the Mets have no real pressing need to address the position. Héctor Olivera is also no lock to be an upgrade over Murphy, Flores, or Herrera, making his possible acquisition even less likely.

Because Olivera is fairly athletic, he could, in theory, be shifted to an outfield position, but I do not see the wisdom of such a move. In addition to the difficulties of getting adjusted to a new league in a new country, Olivera would have to learn to play the outfield; outside of a handful of games in his rookie season, Olivera has no experience playing out there. In the past, Terry Collins has cited difficulties adapting to the outfield as a reason Lucas Duda's bat lagged in parts of 2012 and 2013. "When he was playing the outfield, he was so concerned about not making a mistake defensively, he got more caught up in that than producing runs," Collins said. "He always thought he had to drive in two if he was going to drive in any runs. I think right now, he knows he can play first base, he's a good first baseman, and I think it's helped him offensively." While there is no guarantee that Olivera would have similar difficulties at the plate as result of changing positions, I don't see the utility in finding out.

Complicating everything is the thrombosis that forced Olivera to sit out the 52^ndSerie Nacional. While he did return for the 53^rd annual competition and had a fairly successful season, there were a few red flags. While not necessarily a prolific power hitter, the seven home runs he belted were his fewest since the 45^thSerie Nacional (2005-2006) and the first time in six years that he totaled only a single-digit home run total. In addition, he spent most of the season as a DH, playing 29 games at second base and the remaining 44 as the designated hitter. While he has played DH in the past, his number of games played as a DH in 2013-2014 was unusually high. Throw in his relatively advanced age and it makes one wonder: Were those numbers indicative of a player shaking off the rust or of a player starting down the down arc of his career?

As a result of all of these red flags and question marks, it's hard to gauge the market for the middle infielder. By virtue of his advanced age, I don't think any contract that he signs will be particularly long or particularly exorbitant.

Your Saturday morning dose of New York Mets and Major League Baseball news, notes, and links.

Meet the Mets

Hitting coach Lamar Johnson will not keep his position in 2015. Did he make much of a difference? A trio of hitters appear to have benefited from Johnson's time as hitting coach.

What would a Mets playoff roster have looked like had they made the postseason this year? Not very pretty.

Four free agents who should be on their list this winter are still playing for AL teams this postseason.

Daniel Murphy might or might not be on the way out for the Mets this offseason and Adam Rubin looks at why.

Ex-Mets pitcher and prospect Octavio Dotel has retired. He was the last active 1999 Met.

Another former Mets player Joe McEwing is a candidate for the Rangers and Diamondbacks manager job.

Around the Playoffs

Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw each got knocked around and the Cardinals held on to beat the Dodgers 10-9.

Eric Hosmer's 11th inning home run propelled the Royals to a 4-1 victory over the Angels, giving them a 2-0 series lead.

In a close one, the Giantsdefeated the Nationals 3-2.

The Oriolessmacked the Tigers bullpen around, winning 7-6 to take a 2-0 series lead.

Around the Majors

Jose Fernandez had his second throwing session since Tommy John surgery and it was "incredible".

Phillies president David Montgomery took a leave of absence and it was reported that he was forced out by a Philly tv station. That, however, was incorrect.

Eno Sarris talked to Brandon Moss of the A's, who is a fan of sabermetrics and hates batting average. Also, Ruben Amaro is wrong again.

Kevin Towers will leave the Diamondbacks to pursue other opportunities, rather than take on a new role.

Red Sox hitting coach Greg Colbrunn has stepped down after a rough year.

Former Astros manager Bo Porter is the newBraves third base coach.

Yesterday At AA

James Kannengieser says not to pay much attention to the Mets run differential.

Matthew Callan looked back at the 1999 Mets trip to the desert to take on the Diamondbacks.

We reviewed Eric Campbell's rookie season.

Peter Quadrino recalls some of Carlos Beltran's most memorable Mets moments.

Politics and Robert Moses' vision of New York City played a large role in the building of Shea Stadium.

Should the Mets use Jenrry Mejia or Bobby Parnell as closer in 2015?

Episode 87 of the Amazin Avenue Audio podcast is available to listen to.

If you read an article or find a link that you think would be a great addition to a future edition of Mets Morning News, please forward it to our tips email address tips@grission.com and we'll try to add it in.