With Yu Darvish out, should the Rangers sell, buy, or do nothing? You can make compelling arguments for all three.
You are the GM of the Texas Rangers. You are in charge of the roster decisions and building the team. Your best pitcher, one of the best in the league, is likely out for the season. It's your job to react, to forge on. Do you sell in preparation of 2016, do you look outside the organization for help, or do you stand pat?
Drinking at 6:45 a.m. and watching squirrels chase each other under the tree just outside your window while the sun rises and you think about what could have been is not an option. In real life, it might be -- it also might be a passage from a Cormac McCarthy book -- but here, you have three options. Sell. Buy. Nothing. You have to choose between those three.
Yu Darvish is probably gone for the season. There might not be a more devastating injury possible in baseball, considering the precipice the Rangers were already teetering over. Last week, I picked the most important players of the AL West, and when I got to the Rangers, I picked their team doctor.
Which is to say, for goodness' sake, stay healthy, Rangers. At least stay healthy enough to where you aren't actively depressing the fans of the other 29 teams.
The groundhog hadn't even emerged, all sticky, covered in pine tar, and ready to tell us that we had just two more weeks of spring training left. He wasn't even awake when Jurickson Profar was lost for the season, and then Darvish followed shortly after. That passage up there didn't mention Darvish at all, specifically because I'm a superstitious weirdo who didn't want to put that name in a passage about the Rangers' dispiriting luck. That was the one guy who couldn't get hurt if the Rangers were going to contend. That was the one guy, dammit.
Sell. Buy. Nothing. You are the GM of the Texas Rangers. Good luck.
Sell
Oh, this seems like the obvious choice. Fans -- at least, the hardcore ones on the Internet -- just love to pull the rebuild cord and bring the train to a shrieking halt. Rebuild, everyone! Shut it down. Move every single veteran for prospects, shiny prospects. Keep the prospects in a pot on your windowsill, water frequently, and use them to contend in the near future. That's how easy it is to rebuild when you're on the Internet.
The Rangers, though, can't just flip a sign over and open their doors for business. This isn't The 40-Year-Old Virgin, where they can just take the insanely valuable classic toys and sell them immediately on eBay. They don't have Aquaman in the box, they have a Lando without the head and six different IG-88s with broken arms. The return will be underwhelming, if there's a return at all. Would you want Shin-Soo Choo's contract on your team right now?
This was a theme explored when the Rangers traded for the win-now Yovani Gallardo:
A rebuild for the Rangers would look like this: Yu Darvish for a bounty of prospects. Adrian Beltre for a bounty of prospects. Everyone else is too expensive to deal, or they're a part of the team's long-term future. When the Rangers were done with this rebuilding effort, they would look around and see a bunch of young players ready to contribute. Those young players would be surrounded by veterans who aren't going anywhere and who aren't going to contribute more in the future than they might contribute right now. And the Rangers would think, gee, sure would be nice if we had an ace-type pitcher and one more middle-of-the-order bat, just in case.
Now we're down one Darvish. Beltre is the only player on the roster that the Rangers might conceivably trade in return for a handsome package of prospects, as he has two years remaining now that his $18 million 2016 option was picked up early. Teams would be interested in Gallardo, especially after the spring reaper's scythe severs ligaments and tendons around the league.
That's it, though. This isn't a team that needs to ditch its core in favor of an unknown future that can't possibly be worse. There's youth around the expensive veterans in the lineup. There's youth in the rotation. There's youth coming up from the minor leagues. So if Darvish's injury makes it nearly impossible to contend in 2015, the Rangers should make a push for win-soon prospects in the upper minors. Target players in Double-A or Triple-A this year, and hope that they'll be a part of the depth that spurs the 2016 Rangers into contention.
What would the Rangers get if they decided to shop Beltre and Gallardo? Enough to make it worth their while but not enough to build a foundation. That's what makes the scenario so interesting: The Rangers are now the rare team that isn't likely to contend, but doesn't need a full makeover. They can get plenty for their pending free agent and what's left of Beltre, and that could help them contend next year.
Buy
Last year at this time, I predicted the Rangers would win the AL West. There were folks who disagreed with me, but they didn't look at me as if I were wearing one-piece footie pajamas to a job interview. It was a reasonable position. Do you remember why Shin-Soo Choo got that ridiculous contract in the first place? Dude was good. Or how about Prince Fielder getting that ridiculous contract, then still having enough value for another team to want him? Dude was good.
Choo is 32. Fielder is 31. It's not like we're talking about a comeback from Lance Berkman or Aaron Rowand. Both Choo and Fielder might have a year or two or three left, and Derek Holland looked fantastic when he returned last year. It's not a roster bereft of talent. It's a roster that could use one more piece. An ace. Like Yu Darvish.
/flips over clubhouse spread
I know, I know. There's an ace available (Cole Hamels), but he would be ludicrously expensive. And ludicrously expensive. If the Rangers weren't instant, obvious contenders with Darvish, they wouldn't be with Hamels, so why make the financial commitment and ship off top prospects?
Think smaller. Look for the spring battles, pick off some of the intriguing losers. The Braves have some interesting pitchers who won't be in their rotation, even after the Mike Minor injury. The Mets will start with Dillon Gee as the long reliever, Noah Syndergaard as minor league depth, and several prospects behind both of them. The Rangers have a wily veteran who is almost entirely out of wily (Colby Lewis), and a pitcher who is nearly incapable of missing bats in a league where hitters don't care about making contact (Nick Tepesch). They could use depth.
Some of that Mets depth wouldn't expire for a few years if the Rangers wanted to think big and go prospect-for-prospect. The Rangers can't replace Darvish, but they could still build a team that's prepared in the event Fielder, Choo, et al are good again.
SB Nation presents: It's your team's year ... unless you're a Braves or Phillies fan
Nothing
Hope for those bounce-back seasons anyway. If they don't come, deal Gallardo and maybe the remaining year-and-a-half of Beltre. Hey, they gave it a good go, at least. And if you know a Rangers fan, ask him or her about Adrian Beltre and watch that pair of eyes light up. It's fun to watch Beltre play baseball. Baseball doesn't have to be a binary set of win/lose. There are still players who make the game worth watching, even in the most horrible seasons. Trading Beltre away would likely guarantee he's not back on a two- or three-year deal after his option expires in 2016. It would definitely mean the Rangers are less fun to watch this year.
So, see what happens. Maybe the players who were supposed to be good are good. Maybe the players who were supposed to be healthy are healthy. Maybe the prospects and youngsters who are supposed to break out will break out. Imagine if all that happens, and Beltre is hitting 30 dingers for the Royals. It would be the 2008 Twins without Johan Santana, all over again. Of all the scenarios up there -- rebuild, reload, rejigger, repent -- nothing would be more dejecting than dealing away win-now players, only to have the team need win-now players after all. After a season filled with bear traps last year, Rangers fans deserve better.
Except, it's still more likely for the Rangers to contend next year, when Darvish is back. So exchange the pieces that help in 2015 for ones more likely to help in 2016.
Except, there's still enough talent to contend in a division with relative parity. So keep the pieces and even add a few more.
Except, there's no sense throwing good money after bad, so the smartest thing to do is wait and see, and let the masses enjoy the genius of Adrian Beltre for one more season, at the very least.
All three of them make sense. All three of them are disasters waiting to happen. You are the GM of the Texas Rangers. What do you do?