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International Free Agent Profile: Yoan Moncada

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When Yoan Moncada becomes eligible, should signing the Cuban middle infielder be a priority for the Mets?

It's not supposed to be that easy. Rey Ordonez became estranged from his wife when he defected to the United States because of time, distance, and the extremely difficult logistics of coordinating temporary or permanent reunions. As a result, he played nearly no role whatsoever in his young son's life. Jorge Toca's marriage fell into disarray for similar reasons. Jose Contreras was separated from his mother for some eight years, though his story had a somewhat happy ending.

Yasiel Puig and Aroldis Chapman are both currently facing litigation concerning their supposed "snitching" to Cuban authorities regarding co-conspirators in failed plots to smuggle themselves off of the island. Misael Siverio had to sneak away from a coach who had seemed to always support him without ever saying "thank you" or "goodbye," and then had to deal with the subsequent betrayal of their friendship.

Yoan Moncada Olivera (sometimes "Johan") simply asked for his release from the Cienfuegos team, was granted a visa and passport by the government, and left the island nation on a plane headed for either the Dominican Republic or Mexico. This isn't an isolated case. Of late, the Cuban government has been allowing players to leave the country hassle-free, provided they petition and make their case to the Cuban National Baseball Commission. In addition to Moncada, the Cuban government has allowed Yenier Bello, Irait Chirino, and Pável Quesada to leave the country. Coupled with looser restrictions concerning players playing in leagues abroad, the moves are seen as an attempt to establish goodwill so that players can benefit financially and the government can gain more money and prestige.

Moncada was born on May 27, 1995, in the central municipality of Abreus in the Cienfuegos province. Like many other Cuban boys, Moncada was raised on tales of great Cuban and American baseball players and aspired to be one growing up; but, unlike so many others, it quickly became apparent that he had hit the genetic jackpot and might just accomplish that dream. The boy sprouted into a roughly six-foot, 200-pound man, able to hit from both sides of the plate and proficient at playing both shortstop and second base. His performance in the National Championship opened eyes domestically, as he notched forty hits—including eight homers—in twenty-four games. His performance in the 14th IBAF U-16 World Baseball Championship opened eyes internationally, as he hit .500/.500/.800 in twenty at-bats, with two doubles and two triples.

Naturally, Cienfuegos manager Narciso Ferrer wanted the switch-hitting middle infielder for his team. Playing mostly third and second base, the 17-year-old had a phenomenal season. In his rookie year, Moncada hit .279/.416/.343. He hit an impressive .304/.396/.380 during the Primero Fase (first phase) and .254/.436/.305 during the Segundo Fase (second phase). While he struggled a bit in the second phase, it is important to note that his line was still above average offensively, thanks to his 16% walk rate. GW of obstructedview.net calculated the rookie's OPS+ in the second phase to be 103, slightly better than league average.

Moncada did not suffer a sophomore slump, as some players do. For the year—no longer split into Primero Fase and Segundo Fase—he hit .273/.365/.406. While his on-base percentage took a hit, he bolstered his slugging percentage with four more doubles than he had in the 2012-2013 season, two more doubles than in 2012-2013, and two more home runs. His ISO jumped from .064 to .133. Once again, he was an above-average offensive player, with a 118 OPS+.

YearAgeGABAVGOBPSLGHRBBKSB
2012-2013 (52nd SNdB)1756138.279.416.3431203513/18
2013-2014 (53rd SNdB)1845165.273.365.406320348/14

The youngster seems to know what he is doing at the plate. He has a level, line-drive swing that has already exhibited some burgeoning power, and should continue developing as he ages. According to Moncada himself, he has more power while batting from his left side, but has more bat control and plate coverage when batting from his right.

While his strikeout rate over his two years of playing with Cienfuego has been slightly above league average, his walk rate has been very good. The fact that, as a 17- and 18-year-old kid playing against men old enough to be his father in some cases, he is not completely lost and fooled at the plate is an extremely encouraging sign. These are skills that can be honed with experience, and Moncada has a very solid foundation as it is.

Though his stolen base success rate would not reflect it, Moncada is very quick. At the 52nd Serie Nacional All-Star Game speed display, Cubahora, a digital magazine, clocked the youth as running from home to first in 3.48 seconds, and rounding the bases in 14.15 seconds; but, as GW of obstructedview.net notes, it is not clear whether or not those numbers include swinging the bat (very likely they do not). As stated aptly in the magazine, the display of speed "left scouts with mouths gaping." By comparison, Billy Hamilton has been clocked as high as going home to first in 3.3 seconds, and Evar Swanson holds the record for fastest time around the bases at 13.3 seconds. Though it is unlikely that Moncada is as fast as Hamilton or Swanson, it can be said with a lot more confidence that he has more in-game speed than Rusney Castillo or Guillermo Heredia, previous winners of the All-Star Game speed display and two players generally considered to be the fastest in contemporary Cuban baseball.

Moncada plays second base, shortstop, and third base, but prefers the two middle infield positions. "I feel good in all three positions. I used to play as shortstop, there I felt better, but now that I'm playing in second base I also feel comfortable and I think I can also do well here," he said shortly before the 52nd Serie Nacional. Well into the season, he echoed his earlier sentiments, confirming his desire to stay committed to second base. At 6 feet 2 inches and 205 pounds, either middle infield position is not out of the question, provided that he continues demonstrating the athleticism necessary to play them. While his arm looks about average, his range and reaction time, and overall athleticism seem like plus attributes; the sum total of all of these aspects of his defense should allow the youngster to stick at either middle infield position, including possibly shortstop.

Does He Make Sense For The Mets?

The switch-hitting middle infielder just turned 19 a few months ago. Coupled with the fact that he has two years of professional experience playing in Cuba, Moncada is not eligible to become an unrestricted free agent when and if all of the legal entanglements barring him from playing in the United States are cleared. Rather, he is treated like any other international free agent prospect, meaning that teams can only sign him between July 2 and June 15, and must draw from their respective international bonus pools to do so. Would Moncada be worth some of those limited international bonus pool funds?

Obviously. It would make sense for all other 29 teams to reach deep into their international bonus pools to sign Moncada as well. As a result, the young middle infielder could become somewhat expensive, insomuch as international prospects with semi-solid dollar caps can be expensive to billion-dollar enterprises.

The timing of when the Cuban middle infielder hits the market could have a big impact on what team signs him. Though he has yet to begin the process (as far as we know), there exists the possibility that Moncada signs during the 2014-2015 signing period. The 2014-2015 signing period began on July 2, roughly two months ago. Since it began, teams have spent millions of dollars on international prospects. The Mets were allotted $2,697,888 and, as I write this, have signed six international prospects with sizable signing bonuses, for a total of $1,995,000: Kenny Hernandez ($1,000,000), Yoel Romero ($300,000), Edgardo Fermin ($250,000), Jhoander Chourio ($130,000), Daniel Guzman ($140,000), and Tulio Garcia ($175,000). That leaves them with roughly $700,000 left in their international bonus pool for the 2014-2015 signing period. In addition, Ben Badler has reported that the Mets remain front-runners to sign Mexican catcher Juan Uriarte, who would likely receive a sizable portion of that amount.

Given timing constraints, and the fact that the youngster (and his agent) would benefit most from teams having their full international bonus pool allotments, it is unlikely that Moncada becomes available for the 2014-2015 signing period. Expect to see the Cuban "prodigy" during the 2015-2016 signing period. Whether or not we can expect to see him donning a Mets uniform is a different story.


Mets trade rumors: Bartolo Colon drawing interest from Dodgers, Angels, and Royals

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Multiple teams are interested in acquiring the 41-year-old's services.

After clearing waivers yesterday, Bartolo Colon is reportedly drawing interest from playoff-hopeful teams in need of starting pitching. Among them, the Dodgers, Angels, and Royals are said to be the most engaged, as they look to shore up their injury-riddled rotations for the stretch run.

There's no denying the value Colon can bring to a contender's rotation. Colon has a 3.35 FIP and is in the Top 10 in the National League in innings pitched and innings per start, so consistency remains the calling card for the Dominican Republic native. Even at age 41, he can still be the dependable workhorse a contender needs every fifth day.

The main problem standing between the Mets and a potential deal for Colon is his price tag, which is also a big reason why he cleared waivers in the first place. Colon is owed the remaining portion of his $9 million salary this year while under contract for another $11 million in 2015. The Mets will mostly likely have to eat part of his salary to facilitate a deal. Per Major League Baseball transaction rules, a player has to be traded before September 1 to be eligible for postseason play, so the Mets have until the end of the week to get some value in return for Colon.

International Free Agent Profile: Jorge Despaigne

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When Jorge Despaigne becomes eligible, should he be a high-priority target for the Mets?

Jorge Despaigne Wilson is a promising young right-handed pitcher formerly of Los Piratas de la Isla de la Juventud. The 23-year-old pitcher, who stands at six feet one inch tall and weighs roughly 200 pounds, recently escaped Cuba, according to Baseball America. Like teammate Raisel Iglesias, Despaigne is likely to try to pitch in the United States.

Despaigne's main weapon is his fastball, a pitch that scouts have recorded in the mid-90s, and unsubstantiated reports put as high as the upper-90s. In addition, he gets good movement on the pitch. In a league where the average fastball velocity is in the mid-to-high-80s, a fastball with the zip that Despaigne has on his is absolutely devastating. While pitchers who throw that hard are much more common in MLB, that kind of velocity is still an asset. He also has a weak changeup and a somewhat unrefined breaking ball in his arsenal. Because of his limited exposure on the international stage, concrete scouting reports are few and far between. Unconfirmed reports of those who have seen him note that his stuff separates him from most other pitchers on the island nation, and that he has a lot of potential that can be harnessed with more coaching and experience.

Despite the plus fastball, Despaigne has some fairly major red flags. Simply put, his mechanics inhibit his ability to repeat his delivery, which has caused some major control problems over his relatively short baseball career. The Cuban right-hander has a roughly 1:1 strikeout-to-walk rate rate for his career, having walked 114 batters to 105 batters struck out. His wildness also manifests itself in many hit batters and wild pitches.

Still, his fielding independent-pitching numbers are not nearly as horrendous as you would think. Despite the Cuban environment generally favoring hitters, Despaigne has demonstrated the uncanny ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. In his rookie season, he allowed six home runs in 57 innings; but since then, he has allowed exactly one in roughly 90 innings over two seasons.

YearAgeG/GSIPERAFIPBBK
2011-2012 (51st SNdB)2112/10574.585.464136
2012-2013 (52nd SNdB)2211/223.23.043.371715
2013-2014 (53rd SNdB)2320/1170.24.333.445654

We're still a long way from Despaigne being able to sign with an MLB team. He only recently left Cuba, meaning that the lengthy process has only just begun. He next needs to establish permanent residency in a country other than Cuba and petition the U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control for an unblocking license, so that MLB teams can legally do business with the Cuban national without running afoul of U.S. embargo policies. Assuming they do not find any improprieties in the documents he presents to them, their investigation can take a few months, meaning that Despaigne could be ready to showcase his talents over the winter or next spring.

Does He Make Sense For The Mets?

On July 2, 2014, the collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA changed. According to the updated CBA, Cuban defectors are only eligible to become free agents once properly vetted by the U.S. Treasury if they are over 23 and have at least five seasons of playing experience in Cuba. At 23 and having played three seasons in Cuba, Jorge Despaigne is not eligible to become an unrestricted free agent. So where does that leave him? Simply put, he is treated like any other international free agent prospect; this means that teams can only sign the Cuban pitcher between July 2 and June 15, and must draw from their respective international bonus pools to do so. Would Despaigne be worth some of those limited international bonus pool funds?

On the one hand, while he certainly represents risk, so do all international prospects. Despaigne, at 23 and already with three years of professional experience, is much more polished than many of the other prospects for whom money in the international bonus pool will be allotted. He is much more developed as a baseball player than other rookies from Latin America and is much closer to realizing his ultimate potential, whatever that may be.

Regardless of his pedestrian numbers, Despaigne possesses a skill as a pitcher that cannot be taught: high fastball velocity. Physical mechanics can be altered. Different pitches and grips can be learned. The ability to throw a fastball in the mid-90s is something that you either have or do not have, and the Cuban right-hander has it. The other issues that have hampered his young career can be worked on and refined with help from a larger body of coaches available in the United States.

On the other hand, Despaigne will likely take up a sizable chunk of the available international bonus pool money that the Mets have. For the amount that Despaigne might sign for, the team could ink any number of younger kids. At this stage in the game, regardless of their age or how far along in their development they are, all international prospects are projections and dreams, and nothing more. From a risk-and-reward point of view, signing a greater number of international prospects might be more prudent, because it gives you more potential lottery tickets in the game.. As I write this, the Mets have signed six international prospects with sizable signing bonuses, for a total of $1,995,000: Kenny Hernandez ($1,000,000), Yoel Romero ($300,000), Edgardo Fermin ($250,000), Jhoander Chourio ($130,000), Daniel Guzman ($140,000), and Tulio Garcia ($175,000). That leaves them with roughly $700,000 left in their international bonus pool for the 2014-2015 signing period. In addition, Ben Badler has reported that the Mets remain front-runners to sign Mexican catcher Juan Uriarte, who would likely receive a sizable portion of that amount.

It is highly unlikely that Despaigne becomes available during the 2014-2015 signing period. That works out well for him, though, as that allows teams to have more money to spend on a sizable signing bonus. As always, this is a fluid situation and updates will likely be forthcoming.

Are we finally seeing the real Travis d'Arnaud?

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The struggles of Travis d'Arnaud ultimately led to a demotion to the minor leagues, but instead of letting it ruin a promising future, the young catcher has used it as a springboard to major league success.

We've all heard the story. Called up to the Yankees early in the 1951 season, a youngster by the name of Mickey Mantle endured a slump so bad that he was eventually sent down to the minor leagues. As the story goes, the youngster was ready to give up on baseball altogether before a little tough love from his father changed his mind. After being summoned back up to New York a few weeks later, 'The Mick' would never see the minor leagues again.

The Mets certainly aren't expecting such results with Travis d'Arnaud. A franchise that has enjoyed the likes of Jerry Grote, Gary Carter, and Mike Piazza believed they had acquired another such impact catcher as the centerpiece of the R.A. Dickey trade after the 2012 season. But injuries continued to plague the young backstop in 2013, delaying his major league debut until mid-August of last year. Then he hit .202/.286/.263 in 99 at-bats, not exactly what Mets fans were expecting of the 2007 draft's 37th overall pick.

Handed the starting job in 2014, d'Arnaud's struggles not only continued but worsened. After hitting just .209 with one home run in March/April, he bottomed out with a .178/.213/.311 slash line in May, which included a two-week absence due to a concussion. After a 1-for-16 start in June, d'Arnaud was demoted to Triple-A Las Vegas on June 7. The 25-year-old left for the desert hitting a putrid .180/.271/.273 in 61 games.

The Mets seemingly had no intention of making d'Arnaud's trip to Las Vegas a short one, but when he hit .436/.475/.909 with six home runs in 59 at-bats, his minor league stay was over after just fifteen games. A three-run home run in his first game back with the Mets on June 24 set things in motion for d'Arnaud, who finally looks like the player Baseball America deemed worthy of the seventeenth overall ranking on their 2012 prospect list.

Since his return, d'Arnaud has played in 47 games and hit .263/.309/.486 with 9 home runs and 23 runs batted in, bringing his season totals to .228/.292/.396. d'Arnaud's 12 home runs on the season are already the most ever by a rookie Mets catcher, topping Todd Hundley's seven home runs in 1992.

So what exactly has d'Arnaud done since his return from Triple-A? If you ask him, he believes his problems were mostly mental, but while in Las Vegas, 51s skipper Wally Backman and hitting coach George Greer did a little tinkering of their own.

"George moved his back foot closer to the plate. He was having a hard time hitting the pitch away, but now he can cover the whole plate. If it was that simple all the time, it’d be great. That’s one of the things he wasn’t doing in the big leagues."

Interestingly enough, d'Arnaud's ability to cover the entire plate has not increased his percentage of hits to the opposite field. On the contrary, he now seems to be able to drive pitches on the mid-to-outer half of the plate to left-center far more frequently with increasingly positive results. His pre-demotion spray chart directly below shows a lot of weak contact and little or no ability to pull the ball outside of weak grounders and pop outs.

Chart1_medium

However, upon his return to the Mets in late June, d'Arnaud not only began pulling the ball, but doing so with authority he had yet to show as a big leaguer.

Chart2_medium

Just past his the first anniversary of his major league debut, both d'Arnaud and the Mets are pleased that he is finally showing the potential that made him such a highly touted prospect, one who has been twice traded in deals involving Cy Young Award winners.

Royals may be interested in Bartolo Colon

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But he's fat, like Billy Butler

Mets starting pitcher Bartolo Colon has cleared waivers, meaning he is free to be traded, and he has drawn interest from a number of teams, which could include the Kansas City Royals. Tyler Drenon looked at Bartolo Colon as a trade candidate back at the July trading deadline. Colon is 12-10 this year with a 3.82 ERA and 3.35 FIP. In 167.1 innings, he has struck out 7 hitters per nine innings, while walking just 1.2. Colon is coming off a career resurgence after winning 18 games with a 2.65 ERA last year with the Oakland Athletics.

The Royals have reportedly been seeking a pitcher that could serve as an upgrade over Jeremy Guthrie, as well as a replacement for James Shields in 2015 when the free agent departs. The 41-year old Colon will earn roughly $2 million the remainder of this season and is signed to a contract through 2015 that will pay him $11 million next year.

What would the Mets want in return for Colon?

What do the Mets want? In a word, value. The 41-year-old Colon has pitched well, and the Mets are targeting both salary relief and a decent return in prospects.

Last night, after word spread that Colon had cleared waivers, the question circulating around the game was how much of the pitcher’s $11 million salary the Mets would absorb. In July, we reported that the team was willing to eat about $2 million to facilitate a deal, and nothing substantial has changed since

The Angels and Dodgers are other teams mentioned as the most interested in Colon's services. The Angels have depleted their farm system, but would be in a better position to take on Colon's salary than Kansas City.

The Royals have until August 31 to acquire players that can be eligible for the post-season roster.

Bartolo-colon-jiggles-his-belly_medium

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Series Preview: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

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The Mets return home for a series with one of their fiercest rivals.

What's going on with the Braves?

With the Nationals finally turning into the world-beaters they were always destined to become, the Braves don't have much of a shot at the division crown anymore. Atlanta is eight games back in the loss column and doesn't appear to have the talent to catch up to Washington, whose run differential has recently peaked into triple-digit range.

Thank goodness for that second Wild Card slot, though. Although the Braves are four losses behind the Cardinals for the lead in the Wild Card standings, they stand only one loss behind San Francisco for a chance to take part in a one-game playoff at the end of the season.

To do that, though, the southern club is going to have to keep winning. After a brutal stretch to begin the month of August, the Braves somehow got back on track against Oakland and Pittsburgh before splitting four games with Cincinnati last weekend. That sets up the Braves for 15 straight games within the National League East, six of which are against the Marlins, whom Atlanta is just barely holding off for second place in the division.

So can Atlanta survive the gauntlet of September and make the playoffs? Fans are not very confident.

Who are these guys?

Emilio Bonifacio was acquired by Atlanta right before the trade deadline alongside lefty reliever James Russell from the Cubs. The Braves gave up catching prospect Victor Caratini in the deal. He's far away from the majors and is blocked by another catcher in Christian Bethancourt, but it's a little strange for a smart team like Atlanta to give up a prospect in exchange for a utility piece like Bonifacio. He got off to a hot start this season with the Cubs, and he can play shortstop as well as the outfield, but Bonifacio is a player who doesn't get on base or hit for power regularly enough to be considered a regular. Speed and versatility are his calling cards.

Another player who is giving the Braves some help down the stretch is infielder/outfielder Phil Gosselin. The former fifth-round draft pick out of Virginia was never much of a hitter in the minor leagues... until this season when he ripped off a .344/.379/.487 line at Triple-A Gwinnett to put himself in the promotion conversation. Gosselin has been up and down this season between the minors and the majors, but his recent streak of solid hitting could make his current big league stint much more than a cup of coffee.

Who's on the mound?

Tuesday: Alex Wood vs. Dillon Gee

Considering the way he has pitched recently, it's hard to believe that Wood was once shifted to the bullpen in the middle of this season. The 23-year-old lefty is now up to five starts in a row with at least six innings pitched and two earned runs allowed or fewer. His strikeout rate has bounced around a little bit, but given Wood's youth and consistency this season, he looks like a future rotation piece for sure.

Gee was roughed up in Oakland during his last outing, but now he has the chance to go back-to-back starts without allowing a home run for the first time since April. Other than that fun tidbit, the main reason to watch Gee is to see whether he can help the Mets hang around with an Atlanta team in the middle of a playoff push. Gee has struggled against strong offenses lately, but his one performance against the Braves in 2014 was a very solid one.

Wednesday: Julio Teheran vs. Zack Wheeler

Teheran was the clear ace of Atlanta's rotation in the first half of the season, but he's pitched like a mere mortal for the past two months. Back on July 8, even the Mets were able to score five runs on Teheran, lighting him up for 11 hits in less than four innings. He hasn't nearly been that bad in August, but even after six shutout innings against the Reds last week, Teheran's ERA is 4.62 for the month.

Wheeler's start in Oakland was a little worse than his recent string of solid outings. He let up four runs, failed to finish the sixth inning, and once again was not efficient with his pitch count. Wheeler is still young and still has the potential to be a high-end starter, but it now looks like we'll have to wait until 2014 or later to see him consistently pitch seven innings with two walks or fewer.

Thursday: Mike Minor vs. Jon Niese

With the way Minor has pitched this season, it's no wonder that Wood has replaced him as Atlanta's most intriguing young left-handed pitcher. Minor's strikeout and walk rates aren't too far off from where they were during his breakout 2013 campaign, but he is giving up more hits and home runs than before. The Mets are coming off of a four-homer game and hit three dingers off of Minor across two July matchups, so it might be time to warm up that apple in center field.

Since Niese came back from the disabled list in late July, he's allowed less than three runs in just one of seven starts. That's pretty sad for what was once the world's most consistent pitcher. Niese is 27 years old and should be peaking this year, but instead Niese is starting to look more like an extra arm than a solid middle-of-the-rotation asset. Hopefully he can get back to posting quality starts on the regular next month.

Prediction: The Mets drop two of three to the strong-armed Braves.

Poll
How will the Mets fare against the Braves this week?
Sweep 'em out of the Wild Card race!
0 votes
Win two out of three.
0 votes
Lose two out of three.
0 votes
Swept aside like a typical non-contender.
0 votes

0 votes | Poll has closed

Mets name six players ot Arizona Fall League roster

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Brandon Nimmo, Matt Reynolds, and Cory Mazzoni headline the list of prospects.

Now entering its 23rd season of play, the Arizona Fall League is a six-week season of baseball used by big league clubs to get some of their prized prospects extra playing time after the minor league season is finished. The Mets just announced the six players they will be sending to play for the Scottsdale Scorpions this October.

Nimmo's .906 OPS at High-A St. Lucie this season and subsequent success at Double-A Binghamton make the first-round draft pick the most hyped prospect of the six, but Reynolds is probably the closest to the majors. The Arkansas alumnus has risen through New York's system quickly and is currently banging on the door of the big leagues with a .430 on-base percentage at Triple-A Las Vegas.

The rest of the Fall League guys are all pitchers. Mazzoni is having a rough go of it in Vegas this season, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio is greater than 3:1 and he still projects has a useful right arm either out of the bullpen or in the back of the rotation. Meanwhile, Sewald has dominated the Florida State League in 2014 with 62 strikeouts and a 1.73 ERA in 52 relief innings. It will be interesting to see how he does against the stud hitters of the AFL.

Finally, Whalen is having great success as a 20-year-old starter at Single-A Savannah, while Hilario is still a work in progress at St. Lucie. With the minor league seasons winding down, the AFL is the best chance that selected prospects have to put their skills on display prior to spring training. The Mets have been unwilling or unable to spend much in the free agent market lately, making such offseason performances more important than ever.

Mets Morning News: Victories are as easy as Juan, two, Gee!

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Your Wednesday morning dose of New York Mets and Major League Baseball news, notes, and links.

Meet the Mets

Choose Your Recap:Amazin' Avenue, MLB.com, ESPN NY, Daily News, New York Times, Star-Ledger, NY Post

Is David Wright hurt or is he just playing poorly? He admitted yesterday that his shoulder is not healthy but the captain  won't blame his injury for his slump.

Bartolo Colon is still drawing interest from teams and the Mets still have a few days to move him. With no space on the current roster, Daisuke Matsuzaka is in limbo. Noah Syndergaard is also in limbo, though Sandy Alderson would like him to get some big league experience in September.

The Mets played last night without Wright, Daniel Murphy, Vic Black, and Josh Edgin. Murphy is day to day with a calf issue, while Black and Edgin both could be out today as well. Black has done a great job of stranding runners this season.

Six Mets prospects will head to the Arizona Fall League this winter including Brandon Nimmo and Matt Reynolds. Reynolds appears to be an intriguing option for the organization at shortstop going forward.

Travis d'Arnaud was lost in the minors and a call to his dad helped him get back on track.

In Tommy John surgery news, Bobby Parnell won't get on a mound until 2015. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hefner is going to wait a little longer before deciding his next step.

Sandy Alderson says that the Mets are uninterested in swapping PCL teams if they can't find an International League AAA affiliate.

Around the NL East

The Philliesbeat the Nationals 4-3, while the Marlinsfell to the Angels 8-2.

Around the Majors

The Mariners have given GM Jack Zduriencik a contract extension.

Andrew McCutchen re-aggravated his ribcage injury on this catch against the wall.

Five good months doesn't erase the last five years, says Giancarlo Stanton about the Marlins organization. Grant Brisbee says that Stanton's excellent season is punching his ticket out of Miami.

Royals manager Ned Yost said something dumb and one of the team's beat writers tore him apart for it.

Yesterday At AA

Are we seeing the real Travis d'Arnaud? Let's hope so!

Steve Sypa looked at International Free Agents Yoan Moncada and Jorge Despaigne.

Aaron Yorke previewed the Mets series with the Atlanta Braves.

If you read an article or find a link that you think would be a great addition to a future edition of Mets Morning News, please forward it to our tips email address tips@grission.com and we'll try to add it in.


Should the Mets worry about Travis d'Arnaud's pitch blocking?

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Set against the backdrop of a season salvaged at the dish plays out a less gratifying story line about shortcomings behind it. But what exactly do the young catcher's defensive woes mean, and should we even care?

The Mets front office has had its ups and downs in 2014. The Chris Young gamble certainly did not pan out. Meanwhile, free agent acquisition Bartolo Colon has been well worth the price of admission for sheer entertainment value alone, not to mention his relatively strong performance.

However, one of the quieter wins of the 2014 season has been the successful re-direction of Travis d'Arnaud. Why, just two short months ago it wasn't uncommon to hear questions—doubts even—about his long-term chances to stick at the major league level, let alone star as an offensive bulwark for a team short on firepower.

Now? Well, now d'Arnaud is one of the least pressing concerns on the minds of Mets fans. Hell, he's gone from being a major question mark to a relative given in about as short a span of time as one could ask for.

And yet, there's something that continues to hold us back from throwing caution to the wind and anointing d'Arnaud the next of the cornerstone catchers destined to take this club to the promised land: his defense.

Perhaps most noticeable has been his poor record preventing the stolen base. At just 20 percent this season, he rates in the bottom tier in baseball in throwing out baserunners. But what fans may not have noticed is that at about 23 seconds between pitches, the Mets have a generally slow-paced staff. Furthermore, caught stealing percentage is a high-variance statistic year-to-year. What I'm saying is that if throwing were the only concern we have reasons to overlook it.

But the crux of his defensive issues, going back to his initial call-up in 2013, has been his seeming inability to block baseballs. In fact, his tendency to flat-out whiff on relatively standard offerings has been, at times, downright confounding given his solid defensive profile. Based on what we've seen this season, it almost goes without saying that d'Arnaud ranks dead last in passed balls, tied with known butcher Wilin Rosario.

d'Arnaud's passed balls have very clearly come as a direct result of his known proclivity for framing pitches

What's troubling about this is that unlike throwing, blocking pitches is a problem almost entirely inherent to the catcher. In this case there's no one to blame but d'Arnaud himself. And I mean that very literally; unlike Wilin Rosario who really can't help it because he probably doesn't belong behind the plate, d'Arnaud chooses this contemptible fate.

So d'Arnaud chooses to allow passed balls, you say? Well, a significant amount of d'Arnaud's passed balls have very clearly come as a direct result of his known proclivity for framing pitches. See for yourself:

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While it's not really quantifiable, the theory certainly passes the eye test. So by choosing to frame those close pitches d'Arnaud is subjecting himself to more passed balls. Stop the framing, and the passed balls in turn will stop, right? Wrong.

the positive value of the additional strikes that he steals ... outweigh the negative value of the additional passed balls they produce

Frankly, the passed balls are collateral damage. Whether or not d'Arnaud knows this, the positive value of the additional strikes that he steals with his exemplary framing skills outweigh the negative value of the additional passed balls they produce.

We know this thanks to the outstanding research performed by Max Marchi over at Baseball Prospectus wherein he effectively assigned run values to the various "non-quantifiable" components of catcher defense, a couple of those being framed pitches and blocked balls. Marchi's variousstudies get into the nitty-gritty, but based on his calculations, the value derived from pitch-framing dwarfs that which derives from pitch-blocking.

Specifically, the very best pitch-blocker over the four-year span Marchi analyzed (2008-2011) was Philadelphia's Carlos Ruiz. Utilizing linear weights, he determined that Ruiz generated 9.5 "Blocking" Runs -- far and away the highest total in that span:

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Meanwhile, the best pitch-framer in baseball from 2008-2011 was Brian McCann:

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Based on linear weights, the very best framers were worth, on average, over ten times as many runs as the top blockers.

The old saw that we often hear about when it comes to pitch-framing is that of Jose Molina and the Rays. You know the story: Molina can't hit his way out of a paper bag yet the club continues to make it a top priority to retain him, even deeming him worthy of a multi-year contract going into his age-38 season, based on the value of his until-recently undervalued pitch-framing skills. What's more interesting for our purposes is that, like d'Arnaud, Molina is actually a pretty terrible blocker. During that same four-year span, Molina cost his teams approximately six total runs, which is close to the bottom of the list.

Aside from the instructive trail blazed by forward-thinkers in St. Petersburg, there's also a burgeoning pattern worth calling out here: While the data points are still somewhat limited, the top of the pitch-framing list has a lot in common with the bottom of the pitch-blocking list.

In short, there seems to be an element of robbing Peter to pay Paul when it comes to framing pitches, except teams like the Rays have realized that Paul brings back much higher rates of return, so that trade-off is okay.

Further, it stands to reason that catchers like d'Arnaud know, but just don't care, that those extra strikes are costing them a few more passed balls. From Marchi's data we can see that the toughest pitches to block are those tagged 'in the dirt.' Most of the time these are breaking pitches that end up at the bottom of the strike zone. But the bottom of the strike zone also seems to be where an expert framer like Travis d'Arnaud makes his bones:

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And here's a heat map from ESPN's Mark Simon quantifying what we're seeing with our eyes:

Put simply, d'Arnaud keeps on calling for those breaking balls in the dirt, difficult to block though they may be, because those are also the pitches he's going to have the best chance to 'steal' from his opponent. And to this point it's worked. According to Jeff Sullivan's recent evaluation of which teams have been helped and hurt the most by pitch framing in 2014 over at Just a Bit Outside, the Mets ranked in the top five in baseball due in no small part to Travis d'Arnaud.

So once again, my advice is this: Don't sweat the small stuff, the occasional passed ball. The upside may seem like only a couple of measly strikes, but as Sullivan points out, they add up fast.

*And now, because these are fun to watch, I leave you with some more truly spectacular framing:

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Mets trade rumors: Royals, Angels and Dodgers losing interest in Bartolo Colon

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The Royals, Angels and Dodgers were each in the running for Bartolo Colon, but according to reports - each of them are backing out.

Bartolo Coloncleared waivers on Monday with no team claiming the 41-year-old starter from the New York Mets. Colon is scheduled to earn $11 million next season when he will be a 42-year-old.

According to reports, multiple teams were interested in the veteran pitcher, but those organizations refuse to pay his hefty salary. The Royals, Dodgers, and Angels were each in contention to trade for Colon. However, all three seem to be backing away. Although the Angels need a pitcher, they might nevertheless pass on Colon.

The Mets are looking to ship Colon elsewhere in an August deal like they did last year when Marlon Byrd and John Buck were sent to the Pirates. Byrd proved to be a strong acquisition for the Pirates, and the Mets received Vic Black, who has been one of the team's best pitchers coming out of the bullpen, and burgeoning second base prospectDilson Herrera.

If the Mets were to deal Colon, it would likely enable them to spend more money on a shortstop or another outfielder during the off season. Colon has a 3.82 ERA in 25 games started this year with 12 wins and 170 hits allowed in 167 innings.

As one of the most consistent pitchers in the National League, he would be a solid starter for any team in contention for a playoff run.

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What team is most likely going to land Bartolo Colon?

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Juan Lagares emerging as a star for the Mets

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Juan Lagares has two home runs over the past three games. Combined with his defensive capabilities, he is among the best center fielders in baseball.

Over the past few years, the outfield has been mediocre for the New York Mets. Jason Bay, Andres Torres, and other sub-par players have roamed the outfield grass at Citi Field.

Juan Lagares made the jump from Double-A to Triple-A in 2013 and, after performing rather well in the first handful of games, the Mets promoted the Dominican Republic native to the major leagues last year. Although he struggled to get adjusted to major league pitching, the 25-year-old has settled into his role with the Mets.

Hitting .279 this year, he now has the second-best average on the club behind Daniel Murphy, who is the only Met batting over .300. Following a solid first half of the season, Lagares cooled off in June and July, yet he has since started to heat up. Over the last 28 days, he is hitting .282 with 12 RBIs, and last night he hit his second home run in three games.

With his offensive abilities starting to reemerge, he continues to be among the best center fielders—if not the very best—in baseball. He's pacing National League center fielders with 29 defensive runs saved, far more than Arizona's Ender Inciarte and Cincinnati's Billy Hamilton. He also added another highlight-reel catch to his resume last night.

Here are some more interesting facts about Lagares courtesy of long-time Amazin' Avenue community member Gina:

  • The next three center fielders trailing Lagares in Fangraphs WAR are all over 500 plate appearances (Juan has 366).

  • Despite flashing great speed in the outfield he’s so far rated as a neutral/slightly negative base runner, so it’s possible that’s another place we could see him add some offensive value, especially as he gets more experience on the base paths.

  • Even with all his offensive holes he’s managed to be exactly average offensively.

  • While he does have a high BABIP he also has a huge line-drive rate and his BABIP isn’t actually well out of league with his comparable center fielders.

  • He also avoids hitting ground balls. If you think he’ll turn into a decent threat on the base paths then adding the infield hits to his repertoire will add some value. On the other hand, it also means he’s more likely to get sacrifice flies and avoid double plays and fielder’s choices.

As his career continues to progress, Lagares will be eyed as someone who can help lead the Mets back to the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Lagares is steadily improving, and an offensive surge is just what the team and its fans need at this point in the season.

Whether or not to root for the Mets down the stretch

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Is it ever okay to root for a better pick in next year's draft?

As it becomes clearer every day that the 2014 Mets are once again destined to not make the playoffs, a dilemma arises for fans as to whether or not they should hope the team will win on a daily basis. A playoff run is possible yet improbable, and the team currently has the 11th-worst record in the league—meaning if the season ended now, they would lose their first-round pick if they were to sign certain free agents during the offseason,

This is a dilemma with which many Mets fans are familiar. Prior to the 2013 season, the Mets' unprotected pick significantly altered their approach to signing Michael Bourn. At the end of last season, the Mets were very close to falling outside of the top 10 (up until the last day of the season), which surely would have affected their pursuit of Curtis Granderson had they been forced to also surrender a high pick.

One can easily argue that the Mets were better off not signing Bourn and would have been better off not signing Granderson; but that doesn’t impact the importance of having a protected pick going forward.

While this is a similar to a team tanking in the NBA, a major difference is that top NBA draft picks have much more immediate AND long-term value than do MLB draft picks. The biggest difference—and why it’s even a consideration for the Mets—is the power stripped from the front office in the offseason from not having a protected pick.

The Mets are currently in a position where they are still limited by finances, yet have high hopes for the near future. Because of their finances, maintaining a strong farm system—which is much easier with high draft picks and the financial slots that come with them—is essential to their long-term success. At the same time, the Mets may feel that they are a free agent or two away from beingtank a serious contender in 2015, while recognizing that the loss of a top-12-to-15 pick might hurt them in the long term.

The Mets are currently in a position where they are still limited by finances, yet have high hopes for the near future.

Like tanking in the NBA, it’s hard to dispute that losing this season would benefit the Mets in the long run. If the Mets have one of the ten worst records in baseball, they will have the opportunity to add a valuable asset that adds depth to their farm system and makes every valuable piece that much more expendable in a trade; this would be helpful if and when the Mets are in contention for a stretch of years.

However, this analytical mindset about the future can lead fans into mucky moral and emotional territory. Does caring about the future mean hoping Jenrry Mejia blows a save against the Phillies? If Lucas Duda has a big hit that leads the team to victory, is that good because it further proves his importance next season or bad because of the potential talent it costs? In the most basic terms, can you really call yourself a fan if at any point you’re watching a game and you hope your team loses?

This is the more existential issue that fans need to think about through the end of the season. Losing now would be for the greater good of the Mets, but the idea of the greater good has led to huge moral issues throughout human history; tossing the weak aside for a stronger but uncertain future has led to disastrous situations. Is losing the rest of the season worth the harm it can do to young players' confidence? How important is establishing a winning culture?

Also, while this issue has been relevant in the past, it was mostly in the minds of fans during the offseason or at the very end of a season (like last year's) in which there was nothing at stake, as the Mets had been eliminated for a long time. While the Mets are technically alive, sitting at eight games back in the wild card race with a lot of the season to play, as of Monday morning, Baseball Prospectus calculated their chances of making the playoffs at just 0.2%. To think about your favorite team losing one game at the end of the season to help benefit its future is one thing, but hoping for your team to lose a significant amount of games with over a month left to go is a whole different story.

At the same time, the Mets feel so close to relevance. With Matt Harvey returning, Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler shining, and Travis d’Arnaud and Lucas Duda flashing their potential long-term value, hoping for a dominant Mets team in 2015 is not a stretch. They obviously need to add at least one significant piece on offense—likely at shortstop or a corner outfield spot—but barring a major trade, they will need to challenge the Wilpons' budget and sign a free agent. Given the budgetary constraints that have existed for these past few years, this will be no easy task.

I bring up this issue because it is one that I am struggling with right now. I’m currently walking the tightrope pretty closely; I understand that with every loss, the Mets are better off for it. But I can’t help but fist pump when Duda hits a big home run or Wheeler gets out of a jam. I know at the end of the season I’ll be a lot happier if the Mets have a bottom-10 record, but it is still hard to watch a game and not hope for the best from players I have stuck with and hope will be important in the years ahead.

Having thought about this, I recommend a middling mindset. Root for the Mets to win, but don’t be heartbroken over every loss. Hope players who are a part of the future do well, while remain stoic and detached if players such as Buddy Carlyle or Dana Eveland struggle. This may go against everything you stand for as a fan, as you believe there is no way to watch without hoping your team wins every game. This is understandable. However, it's also understandable to cheer for the greater good.

Such is the life of a Met fan, sitting in the middle, watching a team wallow in mediocrity. The fact that fans even have to face this dilemma is a travesty. Hopefully this is the last time in a long time that we'll be confronted with such an unpleasant decision.

Mets top prospect Noah Syndergaard could join Mets in September

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Though he has experienced an up-and-down year in his first taste of Triple-A, it's still not clear if Mets' prospect Noah Syndergaard will join New York when rosters expand in September.

Will he or won't he? That's the question Mets' fans—and apparently GM Sandy Alderson—are asking in regard to seeing top prospect Noah Syndergaard next month in Queens. Though the Daily News recently mentioned that New York was 'unlikely' to call up the right-hander, it's still a possibility, according to Alderson.

"There may be something to be gained from the familiarity he may acquire during that month. Just what goes on at the major league level."

If the pitcher nicknamed 'Thor' were to join the Mets, he likely would pitch out of the bullpen, if at all, as he is quickly approaching the club's imposed innings limit. Following his most recent start on August 22, Syndergaard is now at 124 innings, or roughly 25 innings short of his limit with the playoffs looming for Las Vegas. But it's not just the workload that may stand in the way of the 22-year-old making his major league debut in 2014; it's a number's game, says Alderson.

"We don’t have 40-man roster spots readily available for everyone we’d like to see in September."

The Mets' 40-man roster currently stands at 37.

Expected to follow a similar track to Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler to the major leagues, Syndergaard has been inconsistent during his initial Triple-A experience. He has posted strong peripherals for the 51s, striking out 135 in 124 innings (9.77 K/9) while walking 41 (2.97 BB/9). His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 17.2% is ninth best in the Pacific Coast League and his FIP of 3.79 is third.

Due partly to the hitter-friendly environment, his own inconsistencies, and bad luck, Syndergaard is just 8-7 with a 4.85 ERA in 24 starts for Las Vegas. Much of that can be explained by an opponent's batting average against of .291, a number that is inflated by an obscene BABIP of .380, an astronomical figure considering how many innings he has thrown.

Although he surrendered five runs in his most recent start, Syndergaard is finishing 2014 strong. The Mansfield, Texas native has posted a 2.95 ERA and 48-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last seven starts, spanning 39 innings.

This Week in Mets Quotes: Alderson on why the Mets are losing, Duda with playoff aspirations

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Lots of interesting, funny, idiotic, and insightful things were said by the Mets—and about them—recently. Here are some of our favorites.

Comprehensive and concise.

"We need to hit more than the opposition. Right now, that's not happening. That's in part because we're not hitting enough, and in part because we're giving up too many." —Sandy Alderson [Newsday]

Wait, baseball can be fun?

"If we had the answer, we would start doing it, get more base hits, score more runs. That would be fun." —Daniel Murphy [New York Post]

I’ve been re-reading this over and over and have no idea what word the NYP editor replaced with ‘[stinks]’.

"It’s been fine. I’ll see how it feels in the morning. As soon as I felt it hit that spot, it just [stinks] out of my whole back, it had to be that one area." —David Wright [New York Post]

Whoa, where’s the lack of confidence, humble Lucas Duda I’m used too…

"We’re not out of it yet. I think everybody in the room feels like we have a chance and we’re going to go with it." —Lucas Duda [New York Post]

…ah that’s better.

"[Samardzija] had good stuff today. I was lucky enough just to get a ball up." —Lucas Duda [New York Post]

Nope, don’t buy it, old man Alderson just continues to be asleep at the wheel.

"I think it’s a matter of there might be some scouting differences of opinion, and kind of where we are and what we’re going to do in the immediate future, so there are lots of issues involved. We scout [Cuban Players] now, so it’s not as if we’re not aware of what is going on. It’s not like we’re not aware of who is out there. We are not looking at that market necessarily to solve our problems. But you need to be active in all the player-acquisition markets -- participate and be aware that you have those as options." —Sandy Alderson [New York Post]

Hopefully the answer is ‘much more better.’

"It’s been pretty much across the board, starting with the top of our lineup all the way through. When you only get three or four hits a night, there’s a collective issue. We’ve got some young players in the lineup who we’ve got to give some time, but I think it’s been a collective thing. I do believe that offensively we will get better. The question is how much better." —Sandy Alderson [WOR710]

It’s like when you used to fake sick when you didn’t want to go to school.

"My experience being around all those baserunners: Guys who want to run, they’ll run. They’re looking to run. When you put the steal on and guys are iffy, they always come up with reasons why they didn't get a good jump. That’s a bad feeling." —Terry Collins [ESPN]

Personally, I’m not a huge believer in baserunning, I mean I believe it exists but I just have questions, you know.

"I’m a huge believer in baserunning, but sometimes the guys getting on aren't the guys you can run." —Terry Collins [ESPN]

Again, I think I’ll just let this one go.

"Murph needs a blow." —Terry Collins [ESPN]

Oh boy, I assume ‘people’ equals Jason Bay

"I think that you don’t get the results that you want, all of a sudden you start messing with some things. It becomes that grind and that search that you always hear people talk about." —David Wright [ESPN]

Virginian Smack Talk

"The shoulder is not an excuse. Again, when I go tell the manager that I’m good to play, I expect to produce. I’m not thinking about the shoulder. I’m not thinking about bad habits. I’m thinking about going out there and trying to excel and doing what I’m capable of doing, that I’ve proven I can do. When I don’t do that, I’m as frustrated as anybody. I hold myself to a very high standard. I feel like I’ve set a high standard for myself. When I don’t reach that standard, obviously I’m disappointed. There’s no sense in whining and moaning about it now. I’ve got however many weeks to get it going a little bit and hopefully finish strong and let that carry over into the offseason." —David Wright [ESPN]

[crickets]

"We also wanted to get Lucas Duda in against left-handed pitching. I’ve applied to try to get a 10th player out there, but unfortunately it hasn’t been [approved] yet." —Terry Collins [New York Post]

Well, good at least we know it’s ‘adversity’ and David Wright can handle it…

"First of all, no player is ever going to be at the top of his game consistently throughout a season, or over ‘X’ number of seasons. And part of dealing with the adversity is how it’s handled. David handles it very well." —Sandy Alderson [WOR710]

…or maybe not.

"When I think of adversity, I don’t think of playing baseball. I think of adversity in real life. Not getting some hits, to me, is not adversity. You go up there and expect to succeed. And when you don’t succeed the way you’re accustomed to or expect to, there’s disappointment in that. As far as trying to make this overcoming obstacles or things like that, I don’t look at it like that." —David Wright [ESPN]

Mets likely to extend minor league affiliation with Triple-A Las Vegas

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Although the preference would be to enjoy a Triple-A affiliate closer to New York, it appears the Mets will continue their relationship with Las Vegas for the foreseeable future.

Following brief stints in New Orleans (2007-2008) and Buffalo (2009-2012), the Mets' Triple-A affiliate has seemingly found a home in the desert of Las Vegas. While it certainly isn't ideal having their top minor league club a five-hour flight from their major league team, it appears that New York will extend their partnership with a new two-year Player Development Contract with the Las Vegas 51s through 2016.

Speaking at Las Vegas's Cashman Field last week, GM Sandy Alderson left little doubt that New York's Triple-A affiliation in Sin City would continue.

"That’s a very strong possibility. We have a great relationship with the 51s organization. I’ve known (team president) Don Logan a long time, and he runs an excellent operation."

After enjoying a long and successful 37-season partnership with Tidewater/Norfolk (1969-2006), the Mets have been forced to affiliate with two Pacific Coast League franchises in four of the last eight seasons, a trend that looks like it will continue for at least another two years due to a lack of available options farther East.

Las Vegas skipper Wally Backman understands the preference to be closer to New York, but he has also enjoyed his time with the 51s.

"I’m sure the Mets would like to have us on the East Coast, but I don’t think that’s gonna happen. And if we can’t be there, in my opinion this is the best place to be. I would like to see them come back here. I’ve got a real good feeling we’re gonna be back. I don’t know that for sure, but I think we’ll be back."

Though the distance may be a detriment, the 51s have enjoyed success in their brief two-year stint as the Mets' Triple-A affiliate, compiling a 160-123 (.565) record in 2013 and 2014, including consecutive PCL Southern Division titles.


Yankees sign former Mets outfielder Chris Young to minor league deal

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The Bronx Bombers are taking a chance on the former Mets outfielder.

Chris Young didn't have to search very far to find his new home. Less than two weeks after getting dumped by the MetsCBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported that the New York Yankees and the outfielder agreed to a minor league deal. After signing a one-year, $7.25 million deal during the offseason, the 30-year-old hit .205/.283/.346 with a -0.6 fWAR before the Mets cut him. Neither his power nor his defense—his best traits before this season—was up to par with the Mets.

The second New York club to gamble on him, however, will do so at a significantly lower cost. Critics of Young's deal felt Sandy Alderson overpaid Young after he hit .200/.280/.379. While the Yankees are usually not so desperate for offense, they are currently tied for 19th in baseball in runs scored. Several low-key acquisitions—Chase Headley, Martin Prado, and Brandon McCarthy—have helped them remain in the hunt for the second American League Wild Card spot.

Mets vs. Braves Recap: It would have been a whole lot worse if it mattered

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The Mets lost a frustrating ballgame to the Braves on Wednesday night.

The Mets lost a tough game to the Braves on Wednesday night. The upside here is that the game didn’t really matter for the Mets, and a loss like this one would have felt quite a bit worse if it had. Playing spoiler to the Braves isn’t a terrible consolation prize, of course, but it’s not quite on the level of actually contending.

Zack Wheeler got the start for the Mets and began the evening by serving up an opposite-field leadoff home run to Jason Heyward. He retired the next three batters he faced, though, and threw a scoreless second inning, too. The Mets tied things up in the bottom of the second on a Wilmer Flores solo home run.

But Wheeler labored in the third inning, and the Mets fell behind again. After a ground out and a bunt single, Wheeler gave up a double to Freddie Freeman to put runners at second and third with just one out. Justin Upton—who has struggled big time against Wheeler in a tiny sample—grounded out to second base but plated the Braves’ second run in the process. Wheeler induced another ground ball, this time hit to short, but Ruben Tejada botched the easy play and allowed the Braves to score their third run of the game. That wound up being enough for Atlanta to win the game, but the Mets mounted a couple of significant threats in the eighth and ninth innings.

In the eighth, pinch hitter Eric Young Jr. led off with a single against Jordan Walden. He moved to second on a wild pitch, and Curtis Granderson drew a walk shortly thereafter. Juan Lagares came up and singled to score Young. Unfortunately, Lucas Duda grounded into a double play, and Travis d’Arnaud hit a ground ball so deep in the hole to Andrelton Simmons’s right that it seemed unplaybale, but Simmons made a spectacular play to field it and throw d’Arnaud out at first.

And after Carlos Torres threw a scoreless top of the ninth, the Mets’ first two hitters reached base in the bottom of the inning: Eric Campbell with a single and Matt den Dekker with a walk. That’s when the otherwise-meaningless game got frustrating.

Terry Collins had Wilmer Flores put down a sacrifice bunt with Ruben Tejada on deck. The game was over pretty quickly from there, as Flores was retired on the sacrifice and Tejada—with the infield now in—hit a ground ball to third base that allowed Atlanta to throw Campbell out at home plate with ease. Kirk Nieuwenhuis stepped up to pinch hit, but he popped out to end the game.

SB Nation GameThreads

* Amazin' Avenue GameThread
* Talking Chop GameThread

Win Probability Added

(What's this?)

Big winners: Matt den Dekker, +21.2% WPA, Juan Lagares, +18.0% WPA
Big losers: Ruben Tejada, -45.1% WPA, Lucas Duda, -33.4% WPA, Travis d’Arnaud, -17.9% WPA, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, -17.8% WPA, Zack Wheeler, -13.1% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Matt den Dekker’s walk in the ninth, +18.8% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Ruben Tejada’s ground out in the ninth, -33.6% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -8.4% WPA
Total batter WPA: -41.6% WPA
GWRBI!: n/a because of Tejada’s error

Mets Daily Prospect Report, 8/28/14: Thus Spake Thoroastra

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Catch up on all of yesterday’s minor league action from around the Mets farm system!

*All results from games played on Wednesday, August 27th, 2014

Triple-A - Las Vegas 51's (80-60)_______________________________________

ROUND ROCK 3, LAS VEGAS 8 (Box)

Noah Syndergaard threw six and two-thirds innings of one-run baseball as he and three combined to strikeout sixteen Express hitters last night. Kevin Plawecki's two home runs paced the twelve-hit 51s offensive attack and helped complete a series sweep.

Double-A - Binghamton Mets (83-54)_____________________________________

NEW BRITAIN 11, BINGHAMTON 7 (11 innings/box)

The B-Mets relinquished a 6-2 seventh inning lead before allowing five runs in the eleventh to ensure defeat. Tyler Pill pitched five above-average innings, before the bullpen would allow nine runs in the final six. Despite going seven-for-twenty yesterday with runners in scoring position, Binghamton's offense left fourteen runners on base, squandering multiple chances to win the game.

Advanced-A - St. Lucie Mets (33-32 / 73-61)_____________________________________

CHARLOTTE 3, ST. LUCIE 4 (Box)

The S-Mets' playoff hopes are dim, but last night provided a walk-off win and kept the playoff chase alive. L.J. Mazzilli's game-ending ground ball was botched by Stone Crabs third baseman Patrick Leonard, allowing Gilbert Gomez and Maikis De La Cruz to score the winning runs. Julian Hilario received the win despite allowing the go-ahead run for Charlotte in the top of the ninth.

Low-A -Savannah Sand Gnats(38-29 / 82-49)__________________________________

AUGUSTA 5, SAVANNAH 4 (Box)

The Gnats' rally fell short at Historic Grayson Stadium last night, as the SAL affiliate dropped their eighth consecutive game. Octavio Acosta was in trouble early and the GreenJackets took a 5-0 lead in the third inning. While the offense was profoundly impotent against Augusta starter Chase Johnson, a four-run eighth inning against the bullpen closed the lead to one before the Gnats were set down in order in the ninth.

Short-A - Brooklyn Cyclones (40-31)__________________________________

STATEN ISLAND 2, BROOKLYN 3 (11 innings/Box)

Amed Rosario: Walk-off HBP.

Rookie -Kingsport Mets(33-33)__________________________________

KINGSPORT 8, ELIZABETHTON 9 (10 innings/Box)

The K-Mets lost a four-run lead and erased a four-run deficit before losing in the tenth.

Rookie -GCL Mets(32-27)__________________________________

GCL METS 7, GCL MARLINS 5 (Box)

Star of the Night

Noah Syndergaard

Goat of the Night

Adam Kolarek

Mets Morning News: Shortstop? What shortstop?

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Your Thursday morning dose of New York Mets and Major League Baseball news, notes and links.

Meet the Mets

The Mets lost to the Braves last night even though they had opportunities to at least tie the game in both the eighth and ninth innings. Ruben Tejada made a crucial error, and Andrelton Simmons made an outstanding play to save a run. At least Zack Wheeler was pretty good.

Choose your recap: Amazin' Avenue shortlongMLB.comESPN New YorkDaily NewsNew York TimesStar-LedgerNY Post, or Newsday.

Travis d'Arnaud, who was robbed of a single by Simmons, is pretty well aware of just how good the shortstop has been with the glove against him.

A couple of notes on the injury front: David Wrightcould be back tonight, and the prognosis on Vic Black is a herniated disc.

With shortstop still a problem for the Mets, could Matt Reynolds, who had a tough year in St. Lucie in 2013 but has broken out between Binghamton and Las Vegas this year, be the answer at the position?

NJ.com asks if the Mets should trade Bartolo Colon.

The Daily News has more on the struggles of Curtis Granderson, who's looking worrisome as the Mets look towards the future.

Around the National League East

The Phillies finished off a sweep of the Nationals with an 8-2 win, while the Angels topped the Marlins6-1 in one of Wednesday's late games.

Around Major League Baseball

If you hadn't met Cubs prospect Jorge Soler yet, he introduced himself by hitting a home run in his first major league at-bat.

The Tigers have possibly lost Anibal Sanchez for the rest of the season, while Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera have been struggling in the midst of a pennant race. But Grant Brisbee contends that they still might be okay.

Baseball has a number of unwritten rules, but how well do you know the written ones?

The Astros continue to bumble the Brady Aiken situation.

Yesterday at AA

The Mets may be ready to call Noah Syndergaard up from Las Vegas in September. Speaking of Las Vegas, it looks like the Mets are stuck with Las Vegas as their Triple-A affiliate.

Travis d'Arnaud has struggled with blocking pitches, but should the team be concerned?

The list of teams interested in Bartolo Colon appears to be shrinking.

Nicholas Iorio breaks down the stats to measure Dillon Gee's effectiveness.

Juan Lagares is clearly the answer in center for the Mets.

Chris Young has found a new home with the Yankees.

Which free agent shortstops can be had by the Mets this winter?

We take a look back at the previous week in Mets quotes.

Finally, Sean Cunningham dives into the age-old question: should you root for a team to tank for draft picks?

International Free Agent Profile: Pavel Quesada

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Pavel Quesada, formerly a third baseman playing for the Cienfuegos team in Cuba, will be working out for the Mets this week. Once he becomes a free agent, would the corner infielder be worth looking into?

While it most assuredly is a ‘professional' league with ‘professional' players, Revolutionary Cuban baseball prefers to considers itself an ‘amateur' league. Since the Cuban Revolution, the government, through the Cuban National Baseball Commission, has pushed and maintained the narrative of baseball being an activity that players engage in simply for the love of kin and country, rather than for money and personal gain. Putting that into political perspective relevant to Cuba, framing baseball in socialist terms would serve as a propaganda tool to get the baseball-crazy general public to buy into—at least in concept, if not execution—the changes transforming the island nation.

As a result of all of that, players do not actually play under contracts. If they make their respective teams, they receive government stipends and other assistance for being "professional amateurs;" but they never indenture themselves to their teams. As a result, you periodically get what happened in the case of Pavel Quesada. A veteran infielder on the Cienfuegos team, he "handed in his resignation" to the Cuban National Baseball Commission, stating that he did not wish to play in the upcoming 54thSerie Nacional de Beisbol, instead looking to legally leave the country to play abroad. Jesus Gomez, representing the commission, commented to the effect that it doesn't make sense to hold a player against his will and granted Quesada's request. Quesada was granted a visa and a passport, and was allowed to leave the country. Quesada is not alone in this regard. Of late, the Cuban government has allowed a handful of other players to leave the country in this manner: Yenier Bello, Irait Chirino, and Yoan Moncada, among others. One of numerous reforms sweeping the island nation over the last few years, looser restrictions on Cuban players is seen as a move to establish goodwill to the benefit of both players and the government.

Pavel Quesada made his Serie Nacional debut in the 44th tournament (2004-2005) as a starry-eyed 17-year-old, but only got two at-bats over two games. He did not make the Cienfuegos team for the 45thSerie National, but made the cut for the 46th. In that tournament, which took place in 2006 and 2007, he got into 75 games for the Cienfuegos team—nicknamed ‘Los Elephantes' (the Elephants) or ‘Los Elephantes Verde' (the Green Elephants)—hitting .274/.357/.312 in roughly 200 at-bats. He would become a mainstay in the Cienfuegos' lineup for the next few tournaments, before missing the 50thSerie Nacional. During that time, he averaged roughly 80 games per year, hitting a combined .298/.377/.471, splitting time at second and third base.

When he returned after his 2010-2011 sabbatical, he picked up where he left off. Playing exclusively at third base, he hit .287/.410/.459, notching career highs in hits (100), home runs (12), walks (52), hit by pitches (22), and RBI (60). Quesada, along with Jose Abreu and Erisbel Arruebarrena, presented a very dangerous trio for opposing pitchers. Curiously, Quesada's home run power began to dry up immediately after that season, though his overall power remained solid as he hit a career-high 28 doubles. For the 52ndSerie Nacional, the third baseman hit only five home runs, four in the Primero Face (first round) of the tournament, and only one in the Segundo Face (second round). The trend continued during the 2013-2014 season, his last in Cuba. In limited game action, his power dipped further.

YearAgeGABAVGOBPSLGHRBBKSB
2009-2010 (49th SNdB)2187286.304.404.5141042453/7
2010-2011 (50th SNdB)22DNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNP
2011-2012 (51st SNdB)2396327.287.410.4591251492/6
2012-2013(52nd SNdB)2488282.297.412.449550310/1
2013-2014 (53rd SNdB)2543149.322.434.44322890/1

Quesada's strongest skill is his plate discipline. Because of the elevated offensive environment in Cuba—compared to what is generally considered a normal environment in the minor and major leagues in the U.S.—his high on-base percentage is not as good as you might immediately think, although it is still above average compared to the rest of the league. Mike Puma of the New York Post has described the corner infielder as "a 3B with power," which is somewhat incorrect. While he does have a modicum of power, it is not enough for me, personally, to describe the player as a true power hitter, especially considering the position(s) he plays. His career high in home runs came in 2011-2012, when he hit 12, putting him in a seven-way tie for 25th most that season. As his home run numbers trended downward in the next two seasons, he made up for it partially in doubles; but, yet again, Quesada found himself nowhere near the top tier in that category, either.

Earlier in his career, Quesada split time between second base and third base. The last time be played second in a professional ballgame was in the 2009-2010 season. Since then, he has played exclusively at third base.

Does he make sense for the Mets?

The Mets appear to be interested in Quesada, as they plan to have him work out in front of their scouts in a training complex in the Dominican Republic. This may or may not be the first time that Mets officials are on hand to see Quesada for themselves, as he worked out in front of a few teams at the end of July at a Yankees training complex in Boca Chica, Dominican Republic. This more recent and personal workout with the Mets could either signify the team wanting to get a first look at him, or continued interest in the corner infielder.

While I don't think that he will break the bank (as many recent Cuban defectors have), I don't think that with his particular skill set, Quesada will cost the major league minimum. I do think he can be had for relatively close to it, though, assuming  he does not suddenly light up the world in his workouts and drive the bidding process through the roof. As a corner infielder, his total skill set is very limited when compared to those of some of his fellow Cubans who are currently playing in MLB. He does not have the speed of Rusney Castillo. He does not play defense like Erisbel Arruebarrena does. He does not have the power of Jose Abreu. He does not seem to be the total package, like Yasiel Puig is. His main strength—getting on base—has value. But even in today's post-Moneyball world, it remains something of an undervalued asset as compared to more flashier skills, like power, speed, or defense.

As for what role he might play were the Mets to sign him? I don't have enough information to say for certain, but were I to make an educated guess, it would be as a platoon partner for Lucas Duda. While Duda is enjoying a breakout season, he is still hitting only .154/.250/.205 against lefties, and is a .210/.292/.313 hitter against them over the course of his career. While he and Ike Davis were paired with right-handed compliments for platoon purposes, those players never really figured to be much more than cheap attempts to get some production where virtually none existed. I do not have platoon numbers on Pavel Quesada, but it is more likely than not that he does not have a reverse platoon split—that is, he probably hits better against lefties than he does against righties. Assuming as much, the Cuban infielder would seem to be a more permanent partner for the incumbent Duda. If his abilities manifest themselves in the U.S. as they have in Cuba, is Quesada a player worth signing and rostering?

Ignoring any possible domestic free agents the Mets could possibly bring in to play such a role, the Mets have a few options already in the farm system. Josh Satin already filled the role of right-handed platoon mate at first base in 2013, and did not fare too poorly, hitting .317/.404/.476 against lefties before falling out of favor in 2014. Andrew Brown has hit .333/.439/.646 against left-handed pitchers in 137 at-bats in Triple-A Vegas during the past two years. Jayce Boyd is currently hitting .302/.417/.488 against lefties in 129 at-bats in Double-A Binghamton. All three, were they selected to compliment Lucas Duda partially or fully against left-handed pitchers, would almost certainly cost less than Quesada. In addition, while all three have risk associated with them—each being either a "four-A" player or an untested rookie—all three are familiar with baseball and baseball strategy in the United States, which Quesada is not. The Cuban infielder would have to deal with adapting to his new circumstances on top of everything else, a hurdle that the Mets' internal options would not have to face.

Quesada is still in the process of establishing permanent residency outside of Cuba and needs to go through the unblocking process; so a lot can change between now and the time that he becomes eligible to be signed by an MLB team. The Mets' situation might change such that signing Quesada would be unnecessary, while it might change such that signing Quesada would be a boon to the club. As always, this is a fluid situation worth monitoring.

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