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Mets vs. Oakland Recap: Not ideal

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The Mets did not put up much of a fight and were battered in Oakland.

Fresh off a long airplane flight, the Mets found themselves in Oakland tonight for their final west coast road trip of the season. They were unable to start it off on the right foot, however, and now find themselves on a three-game skid after falling to the Athletics by a score of 6-2.

Scott Kazmir was on the mound tonight opposite Dillon Gee as the Mets looked to get their offense off of life support after a dismal hitting display in their previous series at home against the Chicago Cubs. The Mets faced Kazmir once before this season back at Citi Field in June and absolutely obliterated him to the tune of seven runs through three innings. It was the worst start of the season for Kazmir and he took the mound tonight with a look of determination and as though he had something to prove. He was able to accomplish what he had set out to do and quieted the Mets allowing just one run in his six innings on the mound.

Gee, who has struggled mightily since returning from a prolonged period on the disabled list in early July, continued his roller coaster season. It has been a story of one step forward, two steps back for Gee this year and he has been unable to put together any form of consistency this summer. He may have been pleased to draw the A's for tonight's start, as they have been in a tailspin lately and boasted just a single player in their lineup hitting over .300. Unforunately for Gee, he was erratic all night and allowed four earned runs through six and two thirds innings.

Both the Mets and A's had chances to score runs through the first three innings but neither could capitalize. The Mets put runners in scoring position in both the first and second innings but failed to drive anyone home. The A's, meanwhile, loaded the bases in the third but Gee got Josh Donaldson to strike out to end that threat. In the fourth, however, the scoring began.

In the top half of the inning, Travis d'Arnaud, who drew the start at designated hitter, led off with a solo shot to right center field. It was his eleventh home run on the season and the first he slugged to the opposite field. It was an impressive display of power from the young catcher. After getting off to a disastrous start and a spell on the disabled list, d'Arnaud is beginning to show off the bat that has always been so highly thought of as he made his way through the Toronto Blue Jays system. The Mets went quietly the rest of that inning as Kazmir got two strikeouts and a fly out after the homer.

The A's wasted no time in responding, though, and broke the game wide open in the bottom of the fourth. After Stephen Vogt got on base with a one out single, Derek Norris rocketed a double that put two runners in scoring position for Josh Reddick. Gee walked Reddick on just four pitches to load the bases. Alberto Callaspo then hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game at one. Eric Sogard then drew a walk to load the bases once again and bring up Coco Crisp. Gee got behind in the count and left a fastball up in the zone that Crisp rifled down the right field line for a triple that cleared the bases. Gee was throwing everything but the kitchen sink out there in the fourth and simply could not find the strike zone. He was consistently leaving his pitches up and uncharacteristically walked two in the inning. He finally got John Jaso to fly out to end the inning.

Despite the home run allowed to d'Arnaud, Kazmir was throwing the ball quite well. He punched out six Mets in his six innings of work before turning it over to the bullpen in the seventh. With the Mets down 4-1 at this point, it looked like the game was well beyond reach. However, the Mets had other ideas and quickly got after the A's bullpen.

Ryan Cook entered the game in the seventh and Wilmer Flores greeted him with a lead off double. It was, rather notably, the Mets fifth hit on the night. After Ruben Tejada grounded out, Anthony Recker lined a double down the third base line to score Flores and shrink the deficit to two. After Cook struck out Juan Lagares, A's manager Bob Melvin decided to turn to the left-handed Eric O'Flaherty to face Curtis Granderson. During Granderson's at bat, O'Flaherty threw a wild pitch that allowed Recker to move over to third, but it was of no consequence as O'Flaherty got Granderson to strike out swinging to end the inning.

After Edgin threw a scoreless seventh the A's turned it over to their set-up man, Luke Gregerson who retired all three batters he faced. The newly called up Gonzalez Germen was tasked with the eighth inning and keeping it a two-run ballgame, but he did not fair so well. After walking Derek Norris, he gave up a moonshot two-run homer to Josh Reddick that gave the A's their sixth run of the night and created an insurmountable gap.

Closer Sean Doolittle came out in a non-save situation, as he needed some work, and wrapped up the game in short order sending the majority of fans in attendance home with a smile.

There was not much good to take away from tonight's game. The Mets could have used a day off, but instead played a west coast night game and appeared to be rather sluggish. Besides d'Arnaud's home run, the offense as a whole was once again rather porous and is not affording the pitching staff much room for error these days.

Gee was disappointing tonight and his body language was not good throughout his start. He clearly did not have very good command or his best stuff and it was the second straight start where he allowed four earned runs. Gee is quickly running out of time to end his season on a positive note.

The Mets will play just one more game in Oakland tomorrow afternoon where they will turn to Zack Wheeler in hopes of splitting this brief two game series.

SB Nation GameThreads

* Amazin' Avenue GameThread
* Athletics Nation GameThread

Win Probability Added

(What's this?)

Big winners: Travis d'Arnaud, 6.9%; Josh Edgin, 2.6%
Big losers: Dillon Gee, -27.4%; Lucas Duda, -11.1%
Teh aw3s0mest play: Travis d'Arnaud solo homer, fourth inning
Teh sux0rest play: Coco Crisp three RBI triple, fourth inning
Total pitcher WPA: -28.9%
Total batter WPA: -21.1%
GWRBI!: Coco Crisp triple, fourth inning


Game #125: A's earn much-needed win over Mets

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The A's really needed that.

There isn't much to say, really. The simple act of getting back in the win column is far more valuable than a single game in the standings — there's just an air of success that penetrated the Coliseum tonight that had been lacking throughout the fanbase, the media, the team's comments to the media, and did I say the fanbase?

Coco Crisp hit a bases-clearing, line-drive triple to give the A's a 4-1 lead. Coco, incidentally, is now tied for 8th place for triples hit as an Oakland Athletic — this was his 22nd.

Josh Reddick hit one of his signature, looping home runs just over the wall in the right field corner. Alberto Callaspo tied the game with a sacrifice fly. The A's actually scored six runs.

Scott Kazmir, meanwhile, overcame a solo home run by Travis d'Arnaud to complete six innings of one-run ball, giving up just four hits in the process. His recent struggles are forgivable thanks to the phenomenal season he has put together, but it was particularly encouraging to see him throw six high-quality innings against Major League opposition. Well, the Mets.

Ryan Cook struggled slightly in relief, allowing two hits and a run on an RBI double from former Oakland farmhand Anthony "Barely Know Her" Recker. But it didn't matter, as Eric O'Flaherty picked him up in the 7th, Luke Gregerson pitched a scoreless 8th, and Sean Doolittle did his thing in the 9th. Remember him? He pitches when the A's are winning. It's been a while.

With the Red Sox failing to overcome the Angels tonight at Fenway Park, despite the pinch-hitting efforts of one Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland remains a half-game behind Los Angeles in the American League West standings. The Angels and Red Sox play twice more this week, while the A's get only one more shot at Flushing's Finest. You can take solace in the fact that regardless of the results, the difference in the standings between the California rivals will at least be an integer.

The A's and Mets do it all over again tomorrow (today, at this point) at 12:35pm at the Coliseum. Jeff Samardzija is taking on Zach Wheeler, so the pitching should be solid. Then again, Samardzija is pitching against the Mets and Wheeler is pitching to what very well could be a reinvigorated Oakland offense. We'll see how it goes.

My Cup of Coffee with R.A. Dickey

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I was an 18-year-old freshman outfielder at a tiny college, and R.A. Dickey showed up. He was trying to save his career—I was trying to make contact. This is my account of facing R.A. Dickey.

When guys make it to the big leagues for a handful of games, maybe an entire season, later on in their lives they'll say they "had a cup of coffee" in the big leagues. The implication here being, of course, they didn't stay long.

My baseball career was short enough to call it a "shot of espresso," or maybe, "the tiniest, whispered sip of espresso." This metaphor admittedly gets a little complicated, because, after my cup of baseballian coffee, I entered the coffee business. But before I began dispensing non-baseball cups of coffee to thousands of non-baseball-playing Nashvillians, I did have a teeny, David Eckstein-sized cup of coffee for a local college. And while I was swishing around that dirty, grimy coffee in my mouth, I faced R.A. Dickey, Cy Young Award winner.

* * *

My freshman year, I played outfield at Trevecca Nazarene University, a small, Christian college in Nashville that fines you if you miss chapel. Trevecca has a competitive Division II baseball program (the school was in the NAIA during my time)—we finished second in the conference that year. During the fall semester, a block of months reserved collegiately for football and basketball and whatever else, baseball is relegated to conditioning drills, long-tossing, batting cage work, and good-natured rookie hazing. Rules prohibit teams from holding "practice" (rules also prohibited teams from "hazing"—guess shaving our heads and dizzy bat racing us into viritigalian stupors didn't count—so we did all of these other things and didn't call it "practice").

One of the things we did was have a round-robin "Intrasquad World Series." Our 25-man roster was divvied up among three teams—Team Black, Team Gold, and Team Purple. To round out each team's nine-man starting lineups, our three coaches were eligible to play. A draft was held to select the teams—one of our players' dads owned an upscale bowling alley, and we had the live draft there, complete with a draft board and microphone'd podium, in one of the "party rooms" (definitely a place where your ninth birthday was, with a cake and party hats and a clown you're scared of and you're not sure why is there). The three teams were captained by each of our three coaches.

Our head coach, Jeff Forehand (now the coach at Lipscomb University), played high school ball at Montgomery Bell Academy in Nashville, under his father, legendary Nashville coach Fred Forehand. Coach Forehand (our Coach Forehand) was teammates and remains good friends with former MBA and University of Tennessee star, current Toronto Blue Jay, and 2012 Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey. R.A. and Coach Forehand had a yearly standing agreement that, if R.A. was in town, and healthy, and just happened to be near Trevecca Nazarene University's campus during the intrasquad world series, he would pitch for whatever team drafted him. It was a risk--you draft R.A. and he doesn't show, you're down a man on your roster. If you pick him, you get a spot start from one of the best pitchers in the world.

Of course, this was 2005. R.A. Dickey was not one of the best pitchers in the world. He was one of the best pitchers in whatever room he happened to be sitting in, maybe? If he was sitting in a room completely devoid of professional baseball players? At the doctor's office, definitely, he was the best pitcher there. And, say, at the mall, although there are lots of people at the mall sometimes, so you can never be sure. He definitely was the best pitcher at any given moment at any local doctor's office, and he was sure in those a lot. Had Tommy John surgery, a host of shoulder problems, all kinds of stuff.

Also, he was old.

He'd starred in high school in the early 90's. His good friend and contemporary, Coach Forehand, was our coach, in his late-30's; this is what R.A. should've been doing at this point, settling down, having a family, "giving back" to the game. Instead, he was floundering around minor league bullpens and major league disabled lists. Numerous times, he was a shot of espresso away from being out of baseball entirely, forever.

In 2005, he was technically with the Texas Rangers. Although he was with the Texas Rangers the way you're still married to your wife even though she made you move out and you're eating pizza every single night and she is dating someone new and the divorce is just a matter of paperwork. As a formality, Orel Hershiser (just a totally random and huge name to appear in this saga) told R.A. to learn a knuckleball, like the wife saying to her estranged husband, "Um, get a job that pays six figures, and quit drinking, and dedicate your life to Christ." I'll get right on it, honey!

So R.A. got right on that knuckleball, a fickle, wavering pitch tried by few, mastered by even fewer. Tim Wakefield was able to grasp it, sort of, in the way that you don't really grasp a knuckleball anyway, but just kind of heave it up there, with your knuckles, hoping for the best. It's a long-shot pitch, capable of dancing past bats and ducking catcher's mitts. It can dart and flutter and weave, and it can float there like an eight-year-old's toss.

R.A. took up the knuckler because he couldn't take up anything else. Injuries had ravaged his other stuff—his fastball was hittable by every two-armed human in the coffee shop you're in right now, his curveball wasn't so much of a curve as a Google Maps "slight left" on its way to being a stand-up double, his fast-less fastball meant his change-up wasn't much of a change from anything, except maybe now every single human being on earth could hit a homer on him. He wouldn't have lasted 15 more minutes for the Rangers.

So he learned the knuckler.

It didn't start well. His first year throwing the knuckler, by some miraculous finagling of the disabled list, Dickey made the Rangers' opening day roster. No pitcher in major league history has given up more home runs than he gave up in his first start of the season. The Detroit Tigers launched six (6!) on him that day, which is half a dozen, and also twice the homers I've hit in all my life.

So he hadn't quite figured out the knuckleball yet. And he wouldn't, either, for a while. Six years it took—one for each of those six bombs—for Dickey to figure it out, or maybe it just took that long for the unpredictable yips and zips of the knuckleball to float the right way for R.A., in a career that had zipped in all the wrong ways for so long.

In 2012, as a member of the New York Mets, Dickey won the Cy Young Award. Six years removed from that ignominious home run record, seven years removed from making a fool of me in the Trevecca instrasquad world series.

* * *

I redshirted my freshman year. Redshirting is code for "looking good for the girls." My sole purpose at Trevecca Nazarene University—other than keeping the pitching charts, which I did with accuracy and aplomb—was to look good for the girls in the stands. I wore my socks just right, high cuffed, with my jersey tucked perfectly into my pants—and I never worried about it becoming dislodged, either, as the fastest move I'd make all season was to swiftly high-five a run-scoring teammate on his way back to the dugout. My actual on-field performance was irrelevant, unnecessary, and, if I was to keep my redshirt designation (which allowed me an extra year of eligibility on the hypothetical back end of my baseball career), prohibited. So I had to make up for it with sartorial swag.

Technically, my freshman year was dedicated to my continual improvement as a baseball player. There was no pressure on me to perform.

And then, in game one of the Intrasquad World Series, R.A. Dickey shows up.

This was not the R.A. Dickey of the Cy Young. In fact, this was not the R.A. Dickey of the major league-record six home runs. This was a half year prior to that, R.A. still testing out the knuckler, recovering from surgery—about 70%, he told us—and basically still figuring out if he could throw a baseball as a means of employment any longer. He was at the end of his rope. He could barely stand a chance on an MLB roster.

And he dominated us.

I faced R.A. four times. I made contact once. I hit it from me to you. Really. If you and I were sitting here talking, that's how far I hit it: a conversation's length. He fielded it, and easily threw me out at first. This after three straight trips ending in strikeouts.

The knuckleball was annihilating.

Maybe it was just 18-year-old me, never having seen anything like it. But it was crazy—nothing like Tim Wakefield, who just lobbed the thing up there like a greased-up watermelon. R.A. pitched the thing, hard—not like, 90-miles-an-hour hard, but hard, low-80's probably. With that amount of heat on it, the knuckler did some funny things. It dropped halfway there and continued on its path, like some sort of horizontal Tetris game. It shifted to the right just as you were about to swing, like a girl in the high school hallway, narrowly avoiding crashing into you. Most of all, it was fast, accurate, deceptive, and dizzying.

That this man couldn't cut it on a major league roster had major league implications for me: I was nowhere close. I had tasted, and I had seen: my cup of coffee tasted nothing like his.

After completing a full season of looking good for the girls at Trevecca, I retired. When he could hardly carry his own arm out to the mound, R.A. Dickey struck out my baseball career.

You can go ahead and pour one out for me—I was about to brew a new cup of coffee anyway.

Raleigh McCool is a staff writer for Grizzly Bear Blues SB Nation's Memphis Grizzlies community, and is appearing as a guest writer on Bluebird Banter for the first time. You can follow Raleigh on Twitter @raleightatum. A version of this story previously appeared on Raleigh McCool's website at raleighmccool.com.

Mets pitcher Dana Eveland received cortisone injection in elbow

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The veteran reliever received a cortisone injection for his elbow in hopes of avoiding a prolonged absence.

Dana Eveland will miss at least today's game because of elbow ailments that prompted him to get a cortisone injection. ESPN NewYork reported that the 30-year-old reliever will return on Friday night at the earliest.

Apparently the injection is already helping Eveland.

A pleasant surprise in New York's bullpen, Eveland has notched a 3.09 ERA in 23.1 innings along with 21 strikeouts and five walks. He's not just a left-handed specialist, either, as right-handed opponents are hitting a paltry .196/.260/.348 against him. His impressive performance is particularly striking considering his 5.32 career ERA and poor strikeout and walk rates.

Mets have weird "330 rule" they don't stick to

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If Terry Collins abides by the guideline for young pitchers to throw more than 330 pitches in a string of three starts, Zack Wheeler is on a tight leash during Wednesday's start.

It's commonplace to monitor a young hurler's pitch count during an outing, but the Mets have an odd rule in place monitoring their workload in threes.

Pitch counts are a source of heated debate among the baseball community. Young pitchers are too valuable to exhaust early in their careers, but tight limits have not prevented a slew of aces—come back to us,Matt Harvey!—from succumbing to arm ailments.

A year after seeing their top pitching asset require Tommy John surgery, the Mets are understandably wary of Zack Wheeler and their batch of young arms suffering a similar fate. Yet Terry Collins has not given Wheeler a quick hook of late when he's rolling.

According to Adam Rubin, the Mets have a rule not to let young starters exceed 330 pitches over three straight starts. If Collins sticks to this protocol, Wheeler won't have much leeway during Wednesday afternoon's game against the Oakland Athletics.

If this is true, the Mets aren't very good at counting. Wheeler has thrown 341 pitches over his past three outings. In three starts on June 30, July 6, and July 13, he fired 338 pitches, seemingly a sign of the club's relinquishing the training wheels in an attempt to stretch him out longer into games.

Jacob deGrom, who is scheduled to return from the disabled list on Saturday, amassed 334 pitches in his final three July starts. He allowed two earned runs in 20⅓ innings, so Collins inched past the guideline. Clearly this is not a hard cap, so don't be surprised if Wheeler gets a chance to surpass 100 pitches against Oakland. And if anything happens, there's always cupping therapy.

Mo'ne Davis is a kid, not a prospect or a gender pioneer

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And she's sure as hell not a painting. Treating her as anything but what she is, a 13-year-old, is the height of objectification, making her a symbol instead of a kid playing a kid's game. Her future can wait until it arrives.

It's too easy to talk about Mo'ne Davis the wrong way, or at least in a way that puts a burden on a 13-year-old girl that her performance does not require. The Little League World Series is mostly just a fun chance to watch kids play baseball at a precociously high level. It is also, perhaps as often, a chance for us to completely lose our perspective.

The LLWS brought us Reds All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier, sure, but it also gave us Sean Burroughs and pitcher Danny Almonte, a ringer who was actually old enough to have served in President Franklin Pierce's cabinet when he threw a perfect game in the 2001 edition of the tournament. Now it has given us Davis, the right-handed Philadelphian that has been the sensation of this year's LLWS. This is a good thing, but also one we should handle with care.

She's a fascinating and talented kid, but despite her being on television, she's really none of our damned business.

It's so easy to forget the "little" in Little League, especially when we're watching alpha-children who are already nearly adult height. Because they are so good, and because of the reflexes we build up as baseball-watching humans, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that these are kids, and forget that word is shorthand for "not fully formed." You can put anything on LLWS players in terms of projecting a future, but any and all of it will be both flatly irresponsible and wrong, not because some of them won't be major leaguers, but because most of them won't be. Most of them won't even come close. In this way, they're like most everyone else their age.

A lot of them won't even want to be major leaguers, as Davis reportedly does not want to be, and that's good. It may even be the best part. In an age in which ever more people aren't born serfs or slaves and can choose how they spend this one life they've been given, every time someone decides their own destiny it's a new monument to human progress. Mo'ne Davis will be able to decide what and who she wants to be. It's likely that it will have little to do with baseball, and that's just fine.

There's an old saying, "You can look for me when you see me coming." We should take that kind of attitude towards these Little Leaguers, regardless of gender. Let them be children now. Scout them when they're in high school, for gosh sakes, or college, but accept that today they are protoplasmic, inchoate, evolving youngsters who have not asked to have their futures projected by self-appointed professional soothsayers. They get to make that choice, or to grow out of their present abilities, or anything, without anyone having the right to look back at what any outsider wrote when they were 13 and saying, "Tch tch, woulda coulda shoulda."

Eri Yoshida

Eri Yoshida (Getty)

Back on Mother's Day, I speculated about the day, sometime in the hazy future, when the female Jackie Robinson will arrive to shatter baseball's gender barrier. It would be oh so easy to look at Ms. Davis and her 70-mph fastball and big curve and use her as an excuse to say, "Ah, maybe she's arrived ahead of schedule" as some writers have done. That is not only spectacularly premature, but also an unwarranted bit of objectification for a girl barely into her teens. We don't need to ask if Davis' fastball will add more velocity as she grows, if she grows because women don't gain as much height and weight as men as they go through adolescence to adulthood. We don't have to look at her precocious offspeed stuff and ask if that gives her an advantage against inexperienced competition that will fade with time. We can watch, because it's fun to watch baseball and because Davis is great fun to watch, but we might as well leave it there, if only for her sake and because it's the only sensible thing to do.

Important: That is not the same as denying that a female major leaguer is something that many of us look forward to seeing. Hell, I spent that whole Mother's Day piece hoping for it to happen in my lifetime, and I hope you want it to happen as much as I do. But it's not yet time to say if Davis is The Chosen One, and it may never be. You'll know it's her when you see her coming. Until then, she's not, for all practical purposes, a female prospect. She is not a prospect at all. She's a Little Leaguer, full stop.

The Jeff Passan piece linked above is well-reported, with quotes from Julie Croteau and all the usual sources who get called when a woman plays baseball at a high level. And yes, Croteau was an outlier back then and still is, but, "Twenty-five years ago, when Croteau walked on to the St. Mary's College baseball team in Maryland, the gender barrier extended beyond the appropriateness of sport for each sex. It was a time when boys and men wouldn't dare dress in an objectionable color - purple or, egads, pink -- lest their manliness come under fire" is a non-factual non-sequitur -- when Croteau was playing, "Miami Vice" was on the air and men's fashion went jarringly pastel for awhile. More to the point, traditional gender barriers have nothing to do with Davis right now. Girls have played Little League before. There is another female in this tournament. Croteau sees Davis representing a "beautiful arc of progress." She doesn't. Not yet.

And maybe "not yet" should be "never," regardless of her future. It will be a great day for Davis and everyone else when we stop treating everything a female athlete does as an outlier or a surprise (or, for that matter, female mathematicians). Passan quotes former college ballplayer Susan Perabo to this effect, pointing out that Davis would be less of an isolated case in the LLWS if girls weren't steered to softball, and observes of Davis, "she's only 13. The best thing personally that could happen to her is everyone forgets her for a while. It's overwhelming to be in the spotlight." Ideally, the story could start and end there, but it does not. People are watching Davis, Passan writes,

Because she's a she -- because the novelty of a girl who can throw a baseball 70 mph and hurl a shutout against the elite of her age group's elite is a match made in zeitgeist heaven -- it's more because of who she is than what she does. Mo'ne, like her namesake, traffics in beauty. Her achievements are of one variety, her comportment of an entirely different sort. And the latter is the luminescent part, the one that makes everyone wonder what, exactly, Mo'ne Davis might be when she's not a kid anymore."

See how subject changes there, how Davis's athleticism is de-emphasized in favor of novelty and femininity? Would anyone write that about Mike Trout's luminescence as if he was some kind of angler fish? Then comes the nonsensical big finish: "It is baseball in 2014. It is a big and vibrant, a Mo'ne for the modern set, capturing all of our feelings as great impressionism was meant to."

Davis is a girl, not a painting. She's a kid athlete, not a Barry Bonds to be analyzed and given a thumbs up or a thumbs down, to love or hate or really anything at all. She's a fascinating and talented kid, but despite her being on television, she's really none of our damned business.

I don't mean to pick on Passan, who does some very fine work, but if a writer has one obligation in this world, just one, it's to say, "Fuck the zeitgeist." You don't pick up a banner and march. To do the job well is to resist that urge, to rail against cliché and conventional wisdom. Instead of joining the parade, you light a torch that leads in some other, heretofore unsuspected direction. Otherwise, why bother saying anything at all?

I'm not saying I do that every time, or often enough, or that I've ever even done it once. But I do know that readers do not need to be told what they're already thinking. We might be wrong for thinking it, right, Galileo? Right, Darwin? To very slightly paraphrase an uncited quote from John Gray's philosophical tract, "Straw Dogs," "Without chaos, no knowledge. Without a frequent dismissal of reason, no progress. Ideas which today form the very basis of [knowledge] exist because there were such things as prejudice, conceit, passion; because these things opposed reason and because they were permitted to have their way."

As applied to Mo'ne Davis, that means there's a lot more value in not exploring the possibilities inherent in a female child-pitcher. Everyone is doing that already. Far better to give her time and not reinforce a line of errant thinking. She is a baseball player, not a female baseball player. We view the world through any number of prejudicial lenses, many of which we simply can't help but put on. If you view Davis through that one you're going to miss the great things you would have seen otherwise, which is simultaneously so much more and so much less than "female pitcher" or "female prospect." It's simply this: she's a kid playing a kids' version of the game and doing it excellently. That's wonderful, and it should be enough for now.

Final Score: Mets 8, Athletics 5—Offense shows signs of life, bullpen almost ruins it

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The Mets held on to win today despite the best efforts of their pitching and defense.

The Mets won a sloppy game today in Oakland, splitting their two-game series with the Athletics by beating the home team 8-5.

The Mets offense finally came alive this afternoon, most notably plating five runs in the third inning against A's starter Jeff Samardzija thanks to a wild pitch and homers from Eric Campbell and Lucas Duda. The Amazins got two more in the fourth and one more in the fifth to put the game out of reach.

The home team did not make it an easy victory, however, and answered back with two runs in both the third and the fourth. Zack Wheeler struggled today, letting up four runs in just under six innings of work, though two of the runs were unearned due to an error by Daniel Murphy in the fourth.

The Athletics also threatened in the bottom of the eighth, when Jeurys Familia came in with the bases loaded and walked in a run to make the score 8-5. Thankfully, he eventually escaped that jam, and also worked around a two-out double in the ninth to give the Mets a much-needed victory.

Read the full recap.

GameThread Roll Call

Nice job by MetsFan4Decades; her effort in the GameThread embiggens us all.

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The Mets' offense is offensive

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The Mets are close to last in the majors in nearly every offensive category since the All-Star break.

The 1906 Chicago White Sox have a dubious place in baseball lore. They won the World Series in six games against their crosstown rivals, the Cubs, in what was—and still is—widely viewed as an upset. Those White Sox were known as the "Hitless Wonders," batting only .230 as a team during the season, good for dead last in the major leagues.

When applied to the 1906 White Sox, the term "hitless wonders" has a positive connotation, as that team holds a special place for White Sox fans and in baseball history alike. Fast-forward to the present, and the term can equally be used to describe the 2014 New York Mets—albeit with a negative connotation. The 2014 Mets will likely not win a World Series. Instead, 2014 will probably go down as another in series of disappointing years marked by frustration and offensive futility

Mets fans don’t have to be reminded how the offensive woes have persisted as we approach September. In fact, the offensive numbers are downright awful since the All-Star break—notwithstanding Wednesday afternoon's outburst—and it is probably not far-fetched to say they have reached their nadir. Let’s look at some numbers, reflecting performances both by the team and the players individually.

The Mets

  • The Mets had four hits or fewer in five consecutive games played on August 14 through 18. The last team to do this was the 2004 Mets. This stretch really was a microcosm of the entire season, in which hitting has been problematic for this team. It seems that multiple pieces of the starting lineup have been slumping at any given time.
  • Since the All-Star break, the Mets are dead last in the majors in batting average (.210), last in runs per game (3.0), and last in slugging percentage (.304), with 58 extra-base hits.
  • Also since the All-Star Break, the Mets are hitting .251 with runners in scoring position and have struck out a whopping 239 times. Their on-base percentage as a team is .275.
  • So, we’re looking at a slash line of .210/.275/.304 over 31 games since the All-Star break. Not a small sample size, mind you, and if these were the numbers for an individual player, it would warrant a demotion to the minors.
  • Regular season rankings are as follows: 26th overall in runs (474), 29th overall in batting average (.236), 23rd overall in on-base percentage (.307), and 29th overall in slugging percentage (.354). Again, putrid numbers that would warrant a demotion for an individual player.

Individual Mets players

  • Over the course of the season, Daniel Murphy has consistently hit well, but even he has fallen prey to the team-wide hitting doldrums lately. Murphy has five hits in his last 28 at-bats (.179) covering the Mets' recent home stand, including his ninth-inning double against the Cubs on Monday. Lately, he looks like he needs a day or two off. That said, he’s still among the league leaders in hits and has been at or near .300 for a good portion of the season.
  • The power hitters (and I use that term loosely) have been affected the worst, although Lucas Duda has held his own for the most part. During the month of August, Duda is 16-for-61 with four home runs, batting .262. Duda really is the lone power bat in the lineup at this stage, having set career marks in home runs and RBIs. The numbers are more than adequate, but unfortunately, you need production from more than one guy.
  • The much-maligned Curtis Granderson’s numbers in August: 11-for-71 (.158) with only one extra-base hit. He has only 20 hits since the All-Star break. It is probably safe to say that he should be moved from the leadoff spot, possibly to 6th in the batting order. Save for his hot streak—which occurred mostly in the month of May—Granderson has been a disappointment hitting-wise for this team.
  • David Wright’s down season has received a great deal of attention lately, whereby there has been much speculation as to how badly his left shoulder is injured. Wright has downplayed the seriousness of the injury, but did take some time off after recently being hit by a pitch in the very area giving him problems. His power numbers are way down, with only eight home runs on the year.

The question on Mets fans’ minds is: How can the front office improve the lineup? I'm sure you guys have some ideas. The Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan Contest is still a couple of months away, but what would you do to improve the Mets' offense for 2015?


Mets vs. Athletics Recap: It wasn't pretty, but it'll do

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The offense scored eight (!) runs and the Mets managed to split the series versus the Athletics.

If you felt a rumbling under your feet at some point in the late afternoon, it was most likely the Mets' offense registering a pulse for the first time in ages.

Today's win was not a total victory. The Mets made several costly errors in the field, Zack Wheeler did not possess his best stuff, and Vic Black and Jeurys Familia almost let the A's back in the game in the bottom of the eighth.

Nevertheless, in three consecutive innings the Amazins put runs on the board, and that made today's 8-5 win versus the A's, ultimately, quite satisfying.

The contest started quietly enough. Athletics starter Jeff Samardzija and Wheeler both cruised through the first two frames without incident. In the top of the third, though, the Mets broke through in a huge way.

Eric Campbell led off that inning, and notched the game’s first hit with a homer to center that put the Mets on top 1-0. Samardzija recovered to retire Wilmer Flores and Eric Young, but then both Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy singled to put runners on first and second with two outs. The A’s starter then walked David Wright to load the bases and bring up Lucas Duda. Samardzija’s first pitch to the Dude was a wild one in the dirt that skipped away from catcher John Jaso. It seemed that Samardzija really wanted Granderson to score, as his next pitch was also wild, and this time, the right fielder darted home to put the Mets up 2-0.

After a brief conversation with A’s pitching coach Curt Young, Samardzija was even more generous to the Amazins, and served up an 88 mile per hour slider to Duda that the first baseman smacked well over the center field fence to put the Mets up 5-0. The party ended when Samardzija struck out Travis d’Arnaud, but it was a wonderful thing to see the Mets offense have a big inning.

Photo: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The A’s responded with some runs of their own in the home half of the third. After Wheeler set down Sam Fuld and Andy Parrino, he issued his first walk of the day to A’s second baseman Eric Sogard. Coco Crisp then doubled to right, which easily plated Sogard, and Crisp advanced to third after Daniel Murphy made a regrettable relay throw home that skipped away from d’Arnaud. John Jaso then drove in Crisp to make the score 5-2, and hustled out a double to put a runner on second with two outs. Wheeler regained his composure, however, and induced a popup to David Wright off the bat of Stephen Vogt to strand Jaso and end the inning.

Shockingly, the Mets actually managed to put some more runs on the board again in the fourth. With one out, Samardzija walked Eric Campbell. Wilmer Flores then got on with a fielder's choice, and Eric Young followed with his second single of the day to put runners on first and second with two outs. Curtis Granderson then drove in Flores with a single the other way to put the Mets up 6-2. They weren’t done, though, as Murphy came up next and smacked a single to right that drove in Young to restore the Mets' five-run lead. This latest run also signaled the end of Samardzija’s day, as Bob Melvin brought in Jesse Chavez to face David Wright, who struck out to end the inning and strand the runners.

At this point, Mets fans might have thought the Amazins were going cruise to a satisfying and rare easy win. It was not to be, as the A’s scored again in the bottom of the fourth. Wheeler started the adventure when he walked Brandon Moss to lead things off. Moss then advanced to second on Josh Reddick’s single to right. Though Wheeler retired the next batter, Alberto Callaspo, on a fielder’s choice to Duda, the runners advanced to second and third on the play. After a line out from Sam Fuld, Andy Parrino hit a routine ground ball to Daniel Murphy that the Mets second baseman fumbled and then booted (literally) into right field, allowing both runners to score and cut the Mets lead to 7-4. Wheeler then let up a single to center, and Dan Warthen came out to talk to his pitcher, as Coco Crisp stood on deck representing the tying run. Mercifully for Mets fans, Wheeler induced a ground out and got out of the inning.

Though Wheeler recorded two outs in the home half of the sixth, Josh Edgin came in to replace him after Wheeler issued a walk to Sam Fuld, ending the righty's streak of consecutive starts lasting at least six innings at nine.

The Mets got one run back in the fifth. Lucas Duda led off with a single to right, and though Chavez then struck out d’Arnaud and Matt den Dekker to notch two quick outs, he allowed consecutive singles to Eric Campbell and Wilmer Flores. The second of these drove in Duda to make the score 8-4. After a coaching visit to the mound, Eric Young grounded out to Eric Sogard to quell any further Mets scoring.

The game proceeded without any real excitement from either side until the bottom of the eighth, when the A's had their best chance to mount a comeback. After a Stephen Vogt ground out, Vic Black, who had come on in the seventh to replace Edgin, walked Brandon Moss. Josh Reddick then reached base after Lucas Duda misplayed a ground ball to put runners on first and second. Black then walked Callaspo on four pitches, and Terry Collins brought in Jeurys Familia to get the Mets out of the jam. Apparently, the fire wasn’t quite hot enough yet, as Familia walked Sam Fuld to make the score 8-5. He settled down, though, and struck out Andy Parrino and induced a clutch ground out from Josh Donaldson to get out of the inning.

Familia stayed on for the ninth, and though he issued a two-out double to Vogt, he got a grounder off the bat of Brandon Moss that Wilmer Flores made a nice play on to end the game and seal the Mets' victory.

SB Nation GameThreads

* Amazin' Avenue GameThread
* Athletics Nation GameThread

Win Probability Added

Chart__8__large

(What's this?)

Big winners: Lucas Duda, 16.8; Eric Campbell, 14.5
Big losers: Vic Black, -6.0; Matt den Dekker, -5.3
Teh aw3s0mest play: Lucas Duda home run, top of the third
Teh sux0rest play: Sam Fuld walk, bottom of the eighth
Total pitcher WPA: 8.3
Total batter WPA: 41.7
GWRBI!: Curtis Granderson single, top of the fourth

Mets Daily Prospect Report, 8/21/14: Bowmie Don't Play That

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Catch up on all of the Mets prospects in yesterday’s minor league action!

*All results from games played on Wednesday, August 20th, 2014*

Triple-A - Las Vegas 51's (73-60)_______________________________________

NEW ORLEANS 4, LAS VEGAS 0 (Box)

Matthew Bowman has been been shoving it his two starts since being recalled to the PCL. The 51s offense was rather impotent last night though, and a meltdown from Ryan Reid in the ninth ensured a 51s loss.

Double-A - Binghamton Mets (78-52)_____________________________________

BINGHAMTON 8, ERIE 5 (Box)

Gabby Ynoa threw seven strong innings and was backed by a fifteen-hit B-Met offensive as Erie scores two runs in both the eighth and ninth innings to make this game appear much closer than it was.

Advanced-A - St. Lucie Mets (29-29 / 69-58)_____________________________________

ST. LUCIE 6, CHARLOTTE 2 (Box)

A five-run St. Lucie seventh erased a 2-1 deficit as Matthew Koch and Paul Seward combined for ten strikeouts.

Low-A -Savannah Sand Gnats(38-21 / 82-43)__________________________________

SAVANNAH 3, ROME 6 (Box)

The Gnats are 82-43, I can live with a loss every now and then.

Short-A - Brooklyn Cyclones (35-29)__________________________________

BROOKLYN 4, STATEN ISLAND 14 (Box)

Six Brooklyn errors lead to nine unearned runs in an overall ghastly affair for the Cyclones. Yes, there was a save in this game too.

Rookie -Kingsport Mets(31-28)__________________________________

NO GAME (SCHEDULE)

The Appalachian League had a league-wide day off yesterday, but K-Met Vicente Lupo was named Offensive Player of the Week ending August 17th for the Appy.

Andrew Massie is the probable starter for tonight's game against Bluefield.

Rookie -GCL Mets(28-25)__________________________________

GCL METS 4, GCL CARDINALS 0 (Box)

Star of the Night

Matt Bowman.

Goat of the Night

Everyone wearing a Brooklyn jersey last night.

Cub Tracks Blames The Conditions

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"Tarp-gate" is certainly on the minds of the writers. We've also got unfazed rookies, the need for a veteran leader, baseball fashion issues, a spelling bee, trouble finding playing time, and an excuse to drink a beer while watching a woman become a cyborg.

After the tarp fiasco, I've seen enough to know that I have seen too much.

From Comcast SportsNet

From Cubs Den

From Cubs.com

From ESPNChicago.com

From the Chicago Tribune

From the Chicago Sun-Times 

From the Daily Herald

Miscellaneous

Today's food for thought

Mets Morning News: Mets' offense golden against A's, Colon to return Sunday

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Your Thursday morning dose of New York Mets and Major League Baseball news, notes, and links.

Meet the Mets

Apparently the Mets have an offense now? They scored eight runs yesterday in an 8-5 victory over the A's and are off today before a weekend set against the Dodgers begins tomorrow night.

Happy Recaps: Amazin' Avenue shortlongNew York TimesMLB.comESPN NYDaily NewsStar-LedgerPostNewsday

It's looking less and less likely the Mets and Cubs will swap players, despite rumors that have been stirring.

Bad news: Jon Niese is 2-4 with a 4.96 ERA since coming off the disabled list. Good news: he's never lost to the Dodgers.

Bartolo Colon will return from the bereavement list on Sunday following the loss of his mother.

Jenrry Mejia wasn't available to close yesterday's game because of a stiff back.

Around the NL East

The Nationals just can't lose, can they? They beat Arizona 3-2 on a Anthony Rendon walk-off hit to extend their winning streak to nine.

The Braves' winning streak ended at five, as a miscue in the outfield by Justin Upton led to a Gaby Sanchez walk-off sac fly to give the Pirates3-2 win. In Talking Chop's words, the Braves went full Barves.

The Phillies took care of the Mariners 4-3 behind a three-run fourth inning in which only one run was earned.

The Marlins nearly pulled off a late comeback, scoring two in the bottom of the ninth behind a pair of home runs but failing to get the tying run in a 5-4 loss to the Rangers.

Around the Majors

A big blow to the AL West-leading Angels: Garrett Richards suffered a left knee injury covering first, and early indications are that it's quite serious.

The Giants-Cubs game from Tuesday, called four-and-a-half hours after the tarp debacle and originally ruled official with the Cubs ahead will be continued today after the Giants won their protest.

Here's Part II (5-1) of the 10 most underrated players in the game from Grant Brisbee. Spoiler alert: no Mets.

It looks like Yadier Molina is making steps toward a return to the Cardinals, just in time for the pennant race.

Yesterday At Amazin' Avenue

Jeff Paternostro reports on three young pitchers doing their thing with the Cyclones.

Here are some names that might be available for the Mets on the waiver wire.

How do Mets fans and non-Mets fans view Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson?

Get to know the 330 rule, which you probably didn't know existed until Adam Rubin tweeted about it yesterday.

Dana Eveland got a cortisone shot in his elbow yesterday and is shelved until at least tomorrow.

Curtis Granderson has really struggled this year.

And Jeffrey and Chris are back with the latest episode of the podcast.

If you read an article or find a link that you think would be a great addition to a future edition of Mets Morning News, please forward it to our tips email address tips@grission.com and we'll try to add it in.

Mets captain David Wright is going to be just fine

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Despite suffering the worst season of his career, the Mets' captain is going to be all right. We hope.

It isn’t news that David Wright is having a bad year at the plate. It hasn't been fun to watch, and it has raised concerns that the current, diminished version of Wright might be here to stay. Quite frankly, this is a frightening proposition to consider, particularly since the Mets are on the sharp, sharp hook for the remainder of Wright’s huge contract; and for a cash-strapped franchise that is struggling to return to relevance and contention, such a contract for an aging, barely-average player would present a major problem, to say the least.

Of course, no one can possibly know for certain what the future holds for David Wright. On the one hand, his age, a not-insignificant factor, is working against him, as is the fact that he fields a difficult position in which varying degrees of physical punishment are inevitable.

On the other hand, Wright has been one of the best players in the National League throughout his career. He has a long track record of success, to the point where he is probably several good seasons away from being a future Hall of Famer.

I want to give Wright the benefit of the doubt, but I acknowledge that skepticism—if not outright pessimism—concerning his value as a player in seasons to come may be warranted. As such, I decided to examine the data to seek a root-cause explanation of Wright’s crummy season, with the hopes of uncovering something encouraging or, at the least, instructive.

Methodology and Analysis

For starters, I parked myself on David Wright’s Fangraphs page. A cursory glance at the dashboard reveals the impetus for this article: He’s having a bad (for him) season, as evidenced by basically every measure in the chart.

One thing that really stands out is Wright’s deflated walk rate, which, at 7.6 percent, is well below both his career average of 11.0 percent and last year’s 11.2 percent. Another red flag is his precipitous drop-off in Isolated Power (ISO), which sits at a paltry .105 for the season; it feels starker yet when considering his career ISO of .197 and last year’s .207. In sum here, Wright has been walking less and hitting for much less power than he has in the past—not a good combination.

I figured, among other things, that these developments could indicate that Wright’s selectivity has taken a nose dive, so I scrolled down to examine his batted ball and plate discipline numbers.

Batted ball rates for Dubs, while a bit of a mixed bag leaning slightly on the negative side, proved inconclusive. To wit, Wright is hitting more ground balls than usual—40.1 percent versus his career rate of 38.7 percent—but that alone isn't necessarily a harbinger of doom. Consider his excellent 2012 season, in which he racked up a career-high 42.4 percent ground ball rate en route to a 141 wRC+.

Interestingly, Wright’s line drive rate is actually higher this season at 23.3 percent than it was either last year (22.9%) or his career mark (22.6%). Taken alone, that’s a positive development, and it certainly doesn't explain his down year at the plate.

Most damning of the batted ball numbers, perhaps, is Wright’s home runs per fly ball rate, which at 5.6 percent is the lowest of his career. This is way down from the 13.0 percent he turned in last year and the 13.1 percent he has averaged for his career. The only season in which he even approached such a low rate was his first "down" season of 2009, when he turned in a 6.9 percent rate in that category.

Duly depressed, I scrolled down to examine Wright’s plate discipline, imagining that there, finally, I would find discrepancies that would indicate the root cause of Wright’s problems this year. I hoped for that, actually, because it would mean—in theory, anyway—that Wright’s issues at the plate are obvious and correctable.

Confound it all, it was another mixed bag. Granted, Wright is swinging more often at pitches outside the strike zone this season (27.4%) than he has for his career (23.2%). But he’s only a tick worse in that regard than he was during last year’s excellent campaign (26.4%). So while it would probably be a good thing if Wright chased fewer pitches outside the zone, it can hardly be pointed to as the unequivocal cause of his woes this season.

Wright’s other swing rates aren't significantly off from either last year’s or his career rates, so I won’t linger there. I will note that Wright’s contact rate, which measures the "total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches," is, at 82.4 percent, very slightly lower than his 2013 mark (83.4%) but not his career mark (82.3%).

Discussion

In short, this is all pretty inconclusive. Considered as a whole, I could see how Wright’s batted ball and plate discipline rates this season might explain some drop-off in performance, but not the precipitous decline he’s experienced. That’s pretty frustrating from an analytic perspective.

So, instead of pausing to reflect on what I had learned up to this point in my analysis, I charged forward, steadfast in my conviction that there had to be a demonstrable root cause for Wright’s crummy season. This unchecked belief, heavily buttressed by my hope, zeal, and frustration, all but guaranteed I was going to seize upon something—anything—as the elusive cause, however incorrect.

My misguided eureka moment occurred in PITCHf/x pitch velocity, which indicated that Wright is, for the most part, facing the fastest pitches of his career. I decided that had to be it, or close to it. Of course, I knew Wright hasn't been alone in experiencing this phenomenon, as it is established that pitch speed has been increasing in recent years throughout MLB. But I also knew that bat speed is a critical element of a player’s power; and although I didn't have bat speed data at my disposal, I concluded that Wright must somehow be having a difficult time adjusting to this higher-velocity environment.

It almost sounds plausible, which is what made it even more misguided. (Recall the axiom that the most powerful and destructive lies often contain elements of truth.) As my intrepid editor pointed out, it seems highly unlikely that Wright, immediately following of one of the very best seasons of his career, simply cannot catch up to baseballs.

Where does that leave us? Well, it leaves us with a lot of questions, unfortunately. I don’t think David Wright’s shoulder injury is an adequate explanation for his performance. After all, Wright wasn't exactly tearing it up prior to his shoulder injury: From the beginning of the season through June 26, the last game he played before missing time due to the injury, he put up a sub-par .277/.333/.396 and 107 wRC+. In other words, he really has struggled all season long.

Maybe Wright’s been dealing with physical ailments since spring training. That seems plausible, as his batted ball rates indicate that he should be hitting the ball as hard and as far as he usually does; maybe something is sapping his ability to generate power. Or maybe his protracted slump has affected him psychologically to the point where it is manifesting in altered, counterproductive behaviors. Maybe Wright is over the hill, and this really is the version of the player we can expect going forward. Maybe it’s all of the above.

Or maybe he’s just having a rough year—it happens to lots of players—and he’ll be fine.

My bet, as an admittedly hopeful, biased onlooker, is on the latter.

It is true that David Wright is on the wrong side of 30, a time when production begins to drop for most players. So yes, maybe Wright really is over the hill. I’m not buying that, though—not quite yet. Wright has set the bar very high for himself, such that even average turns of performance are startling. However, since the overall body of evidence demonstrates he is a consistently excellent player, I expect him to return to some form of excellence, whether it occurs before season’s end or in 2015.

I sure do hope I’m right.

Looking past the stat line: Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks

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Archie Bradley has seen his stock fall after battling injuries and ineffectiveness this season.

"Don’t scout the stat line" is a phrase commonly heard in scouting circles, especially when it comes to scouting Minor League or amateur players. There are a multitude of factors that play into a players’ stat line other than his true talent, including luck, age relative to his level, park factors, health, and transition to pro ball. For these reasons, it is essential to separate the numbers from the true talent, but when the numbers do not match the talent, it is often worth a second look to examine the causes of the poor numbers. Was the initial evaluation of the player inaccurate or can the poor performance be explained by other reasons? Have the tools that helped the player initially climb the lists regressed?

Using the Baseball Prospectus Midseason Top 50 Prospect list as our guide, there are four pitching prospects whose 2014 statistics do not match their high rankings. These prospects are, with their BP midseason ranking in parenthesis, Mets’ righty Noah Syndergaard (9), Reds’ righty Robert Stephenson (10), Diamondbacks’ righty Archie Bradley (14), and Astros’ righty Mark Appel (34).

This week, I’ll be examining one of these players each day. The first post, featuring Noah Sydergaard, can be found here, and the second post, featuring Robert Stephenson, can be found here. I discuss Diamondbacks' righthander Archie Bradley in today's post, and tomorrow's post, the last of the four, will focus on Mark Appel.

Archie Bradley’s 2014 Stats (across three levels)

77.2 IP, 4.06 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 71 Hits, 2 HR, 41 BB, 69 K

Following a dominant 2013 campaign in High-A and Double-A, Archie Bradley was widely regarded as the top pitching prospect in the Minor Leagues entering the 2014 season. Debates about whether Bradley would open the season with the Major League club were both present and reasonable, but Bradley’s season has not gone as planned.

The big righty was sent to Triple-A Reno to begin the season, where he had two good starts followed by three bad starts and then landed on the disabled list with elbow soreness. The baseball community held their collective breath and feared another Tommy John surgery, but Bradley’s soreness was merely a result of swelling in the elbow. After a few weeks of rest he resumed throwing, made one decent rehab start in rookie ball, and was sent to Double-A Mobile – a level below his initial 2014 assignment.

The Diamondbacks were certainly hoping to see Bradley prove his health and return to dominance upon returning to the Southern League, but this hasn’t been the case. Instead, his strikeouts are down to 7.3 per nine innings, a low mark for a pitcher credited by Baseball Prospectus prior to the season as having a present 7 fastball (on the 2 to 8 scale) and a potential 7 curveball. Additionally, Bradley, who has never been a control artist, has seen his walks increase to a very poor 5.1 per nine innings. His ERA is still reasonable, but his reduced ability to miss bats – his greatest strength – and his reduced ability to throw strikes – his biggest weakness, lead to significant concern about his present profile.

Two possible explanations for Bradley’s poor numbers rise above the rest. First, it is possible that Bradley is not physically healthy or not completely recovered from the elbow swelling and soreness. This would be an easy explanation that would account for his regressed command and strikeout capabilities, but I have no way of confirming or rejecting this theory. It should be noted that Bradley’s reputation as a tough, competitive player who wants the ball would support this, but again, this is mere speculation based upon his ineffectiveness following elbow issues earlier in the year.

The other explanation, and probably the less favorable of the two, is that Bradley has regressed or just isn’t as good as we initially thought. While it was easy to get excited about Bradley’s 1.97 ERA in 123.1 innings at Mobile, his FIP was over a full run higher at 3.04. That's still good, but it does not suggest the same level of dominance as a sub-2.00 ERA. His FIP has risen about full run this season at Double-A to 4.07, which is not steep of a regression as it initially appeared, but still, there is no denying that Bradley has pitched markedly worse this season than before. Additionally and unlike Syndergaard, there are few positives in his numbers that give us reasons for optimism. Bradley's bat-missing and strike-throwing abilities have clearly regressed and cannot be justified by park effects, poor team defense, or bad luck.

Furthermore, I don’t buy the argument that his struggles are a result of his time on the DL and find it difficult to believe that the Diamondbacks would send Bradley out to an advanced affiliate before he was fully ready. If he is indeed healthy, I cannot justify his poor 2014 performance on missing time for an injury that was considered healed two months ago, especially as his recent performance (more walks that strikeouts in two of his past three outings) has not been any better.

2015 Outlook

Health is going to be critical for Bradley heading into the 2015 season, where the Diamondbacks hope he can resume his development into a top of the rotation starter. If poor health was the cause for his poor 2014 statistics and Bradley is fully healthy next season, I expect Bradley to retake his spot near the top of all pitching prospects. If he is not healthy or if his regression carries over into the 2015 season, expect his stock to fall significantly.

The bottom line is that Bradley is still just 22 and very good at pitching, but this season has been poor by all accounts. Between the injury and the lackluster performance, he has taken a clear step back and will enter 2015 with significantly less hype. The potential to blossom into an ace remains, but that outcome seems much farther away than before. In a current ranking, I’d bump Bradley down to about the 20-25 range, below both Syndergaard and Stephenson.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and MLB Farm. Scouting grades and rankings courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.

Dan Weigel is a contributing writer at Minor League Ball and Beyond the Box Score. His tweets about prospects and other interesting things are found at @DanWiggles38.

Healey: Wheeler's changeup a key part of success

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As Zack Wheeler continues his development into a premier pitcher, much of his success can be attributed to his changeup.

Zack Wheeler's road to Major League Baseball was predicated on his fastball. His ability to light up radar guns, seemingly with ease, was a major factor in his high prospect rankings and the Mets' desire of him in the Carlos Beltran trade. That said, what gets you to the majors is often not what keeps you there, and according to MLB.com's Tim Healey, it has been Wheeler's changeup that has turned him from above average rookie into stud stopper.

Last week, our own Sean Cunningham argued that Wheeler's changeup was dragging him down, suggesting:

The lack of development with his changeup is supported by Fangraphs’ PITCHf/x pitch values, where a score of zero is considered average, a negative score below average, and a positive score above average. Last season, the ineffectiveness of Wheeler’s curveball—which was assigned a pitch value of -3.6—was a major concern. But this season it has improved significantly and increased to 1.2.

Wheeler’s changeup has made no strides, as it was valued at -0.2 last season and -1.9 this season. Pitch values are far from perfect, but in this case they support what is clearly evident from watching Wheeler pitch.

However, Healey looks at the data a bit differently:

Opposing batters are hitting .255 against Wheeler in at-bats ending with changeups, a considerable drop from the .333 mark they posted in 2013, according to brooksbaseball.net, a website that tabulates such data.

Wheeler's changeup induces one-quarter fewer line drives this year compared to last, and twice as many ground balls. Nearly half of all balls in play on Wheeler's changeups are hit on the ground.

That's what Wheeler wants -- weak contact.

Healey goes on further to suggest that there is a mental aspect to Wheeler's changeup as well. The addition of another seemingly improving pitch gives the batter something more to think about, and even if he lacks feel for it on a given night. It can still be used to slow down a bat, given its stark contrast to Wheeler's high-90s fastball.

Looking at Fangraph's PITCHf/x tool gives us some insight into just how Wheeler's changeup has changed. Wheeler does not throw the changeup often, only having thrown it 42 times last season and 98 times so far this season, but his ground ball percentage has gone from 20.0 percent to 46.7 percent—a marked improvement. Furthermore, Wheeler is getting batters to swing at it more often, as his swing percentage at the pitch outside the zone has improved from 26.7 percent to 29.1 percent, and batters are swinging at changeups in the zone 91.7 percent of the time compared to 75.0 percent of the time last year.

Other stats, however, indicate that despite the changes, the value of Wheeler's changeup has decreased from a nearly league-average pitch, into a below-average pitch, as its Fangraphs pitch value has decreased from -0.23 to -1.56. That number has improved even over his past three starts, as it sat at -1.9 last Monday.

Since the All-Star break, Wheeler has posted a 2.44 ERA and a 2.26 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ERA currently ranks forty-third among qualified MLB pitchers. High pitch counts continue to be an issue for Wheeler, however, as he has not pitched more than six-and-two-thirds innings in any of those starts.


Making sense of the Mets' terrible August offense

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August has been brutal for the Mets' offense, but things shouldn't stay so bad for long.

In August, the Mets' offense has a 57 wRC+. The next three worst teams—the Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox—are all at 71 wRC+. The Mets have a .247 wOBA. The Red Sox are the next worst at .278. The Mets have generated –32.4 in offensive value. The next worst is the Diamondbacks, at –20.4. I’ll give you a minute to let those stats sink in, maybe grab a strong drink, and pet a dog to make you feel better. Take your time.

Now, drink in hand, I hope to drag you back from the ledge. It doesn’t take a statistician to know that this sort of performance is not sustainable; the worst full-season offensive performance by wRC+ was the 69 mark posted by the expansion Mets in 1963. The ineptitude necessary to maintain a 57 wRC+ over an extended part of the season is nigh on impossible, barring a voodoo BABIP curse or the entirety of the roster eating a bad Shake Shack burger and missing all of the season. Here is the offensive data for the five worst team performances from each month over the 2014 season:

MonthTeamBB%K%ISOBABIPAVGOBPSLGMonth wRC+Season wRC+
JunePadres7.10%23.70%0.0840.2150.1710.2370.2554082
AugustMets6.00%20.10%0.0800.2470.2060.2620.2865788
AprilAstros8.20%24.50%0.1470.2540.2100.2820.3588097
AprilPirates8.40%21.40%0.1290.2590.2210.2960.35184106
JulyBrewers5.30%21.30%0.1420.2710.2280.2790.3717897
JulyOrioles6.20%23.40%0.1460.2720.2290.2860.37582102
AprilPadres6.50%23.00%0.1100.2730.2170.2700.3277082
AugustRangers7.20%22.20%0.1130.2730.2290.2910.3417188
JuneCubs5.80%22.80%0.1480.2750.2270.2770.3747787
JulyGiants7.70%19.90%0.0990.2750.2290.2920.3288096
AugustDiamondbacks7.60%20.30%0.1080.2760.2290.2910.3387188
MayMariners7.90%19.90%0.1250.2760.2330.3000.3588690
JulyReds6.70%21.60%0.1190.2770.2280.2860.3477587
AugustRed Sox7.90%20.80%0.1020.2800.2320.2910.3337189
JuneRed Sox7.90%22.00%0.1160.2810.2300.2970.3467789
AprilMets9.30%24.00%0.0990.2820.2200.3000.3197988
MayTwins7.50%22.50%0.1190.2820.2310.2910.3508097
MayReds6.70%21.40%0.1290.2820.2330.2880.3627887
MayRoyals6.50%15.70%0.0930.2820.2460.3000.3397893
JunePhillies6.20%20.50%0.1170.2850.2400.2910.3577987
AprilCubs7.80%24.30%0.1190.2960.2360.3000.3558187
JulyMariners5.40%20.40%0.0990.3050.2510.2940.3508190
AugustBlue Jays8.10%19.80%0.0850.3050.2500.3100.33577107
JuneMarlins7.60%25.30%0.0970.3070.2340.2970.3317393
MayWhite Sox7.40%24.70%0.1230.3090.2450.3050.3688698

The Mets’ August still hasn’t quite reached the June Padre level of ineptitude, but it’s not far off. Unsurprisingly, bad offensive teams appear on this list more often than good ones, since they can more easily reach these lows through random variations. Even so, solid offensive teams like the Pirates, Orioles, and Blue Jays also appear. In short, bad months happen to just about every team.

The most obvious (and perhaps simplistic) explanation for a month of putrid offensive performance is simply a poor BABIP. Here are the five worst BABIPs from the previous list, along with the xBABIPs for the same time period and the next month's performance:

MonthTeamBABIPwRC+xBABIPNext Month BABIPNext Month wRC+
JunePadres0.215400.2980.30395
AugustMets0.247570.310
AprilAstros0.254800.3210.309111
AprilPirates0.259840.3090.329113
JulyBrewers0.271780.3080.289100
JulyOrioles0.272820.3090.311124

Lo and behold, there are the June Padres and the August Mets at the bottom of the BABIP barrel. Encouragingly enough, all of these teams were significantly underperforming their xBABIPs and then bounced back big time the next month, always outperforming their season wRC+.

This data reinforces the idea that hot or cold streaks have little predictive power. Wright, Murphy, and Granderson, three of the Mets' four best hitters on the season, are mired in awful slumps, and the holes in the lineup are being more obviously exposed as a result.

The Mets' lineup as currently constructed is not good, evidenced by its 88 wRC+ mark for the year. Recently, it’s been borderline torturous to watch the team's offensive flailings on a nightly basis. But both common sense and some simple predictive metrics indicate the sky is not falling just yet. As Met fans, it’s tough to have anything resembling optimism, but there’s no reason to panic.

Mets IF/OF Anthony Seratelli attends Telli Town tailgate

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Seratelli spent seven seasons in the Royals system - two of which were in Omaha, and he still has quite a following there.

Anthony Seratelli poked his head inside the Omaha Storm Chasers clubhouse on Tuesday night 30 minutes after the Las Vegas 51s defeated the Storm Chasers, 10-4, presumably to say hello.

Seratelli, 31, spent seven seasons in the Royals system - two of which were in Omaha (2012-13). But when the Mets came calling before the 2014 season, he thought he had a better shot at making the big leagues with them, so he took the deal. He didn't put up the numbers to make the big league club in spring training, so he ended up in Triple-A, Las Vegas.

If you aren't familiar with hisbackstory, it's worth reading. He's been struggling against the odds since since his high school playing days in New Jersey. In fact, he was cut from the freshman team. He pushed on anyway.

After high school, he walked on at Seton Hall and started all four years, but didn't catch the interest of a major league team so he played independent ball. After working out for several major league teams to no avail, he learned about an open tryout for the Royals. He gave it a shot and they offered him a minor league contract. He worked his way up through the Royals system, playing every position on the field, except catcher.

Sadly, on his way up the ladder, his father, Russell, was killed in a freak automobile accident before the 2011 season. If you have never watched the tribute video Seratelli made for his father on the one-year anniversary of his death, get the Kleenex ready.

After arriving in Omaha, a group of fans sat with him at a meet and greet and told him they wanted to have a little cheering section for him. From then on, Section 108 at Werner Park became known as Telli Town. They printed Telli Town t-shirts, and held up Telli Town signs. And in 2013, they held their first annual Telli Town tailgate in the parking lot at Werner Park. Of course, they invited Seratelli, and he showed up.

When he signed with the Mets, the Telli Town Facebook page cheered him on. Even though he didn't make the big league club, they have followed him all season while playing for the 51s, posting links to articles and making plans to see him play. Last week Telli Town made the trek from Omaha to Des Moines (where Las Vegas took on the Iowa Cubs) because they just couldn't wait two more days for the 51s to play in Omaha.

When the 51s rolled into Omaha, Telli Town was busy preparing for its second annual tailgate. Seratelli showed up for this one, too, which was held on Sunday after the game. He chatted with the residents, enjoyed food fresh off the grill, posed for pictures and even played a little Whiffle ball with the children. He said 30-40 people showed up for the event, including Omaha pitcher Buddy Baumann.

"It's the best thing in the world," Seratelli said about the support. "That's what you play for - for people to root for you. You don't want to be the bad guy out there. You want people on your side who want you to come through in situations, even as an opposing player, and their support makes it that much easier. That's why I love playing here."

As much as he appreciates the gesture, he's hoping to be in the big leagues next season, which would squash any plans for a third annual tailgate.

"The goal would be, to not be here." He laughed. "But if I am, I know they will be here to support me and that's a nice feeling."

1999: Fonzie goes off the 'dome

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This week in 1999: The Mets head to Houston, where Edgardo Alfonzo has a night for the ages

After a tidy 4-2 homestand against the Cardinals and Astros, the Mets headed to Phoenix on August 27 to begin the second of three westward trips that would close out their 1999 season. The Diamondbacks enjoyed a hearty lead at the time, 7.5 up in the NL West ahead of the fading Giants, and had taken five of six games against the Mets earlier in the year.

Octavio Dotel did his part to buck that trend in the series opener by pitching eight innings of one-run ball. He lobbied to complete the game, but with 110 pitches thrown and a five run lead to work with, Bobby Valentine removed the rookie in favor of Billy Taylor. The trade deadline acquisition promptly gave up singles to the first three batters he faced, plating a run with more threatening to score. Armando Benitez was called on to put out the fire and allowed an inherited run to score but nothing else, capping a needlessly tight 6-3 win. Dotel eschewed his usual postgame workout to watch the carnage, so he addressed reporters in the visiting clubhouse while pedaling away on a stationary bike.

Hopes that this might turn the Mets' luck against Arizona didn't pan out, as they dropped the next two at Bank One Ballpark. The 5-3 loss in game two came at the end of a back-and-forth contest, one that went the D-Backs way when Dennis Cook allowed the go-ahead run to score in the bottom of the seventh, with some assistance from Rickey Henderson, who watched a double sail past him as speedy Tony Womack ran home all the way from first. In the series finale, more shoddy outfield defense and an Al Leiter error on a comebacker led to four first inning runs. The Mets pulled together their own three-run rally before Taylor and Chuck McElroy gave up some back-breaking insurance runs in an 8-4 defeat.

The Mets headed next to Houston for their last scheduled trip to the Astrodome. (The Astros were set to open their brand new quirkified downtown stadium, then dubbed Enron Park, in 2000.) They certainly looked happy to have the BOB in their rearview in the series opener on August 30, as they pummeled the home team by the score of 17-1. Every Met chipped in some offense, even players inserted in the late innings of a laugher. But no one had a better day than Edgardo Alfonzo.

At the time, Alfonzo was known, if at all, for quietly doing his job and being a team player, having shuffled around the Mets infield multiple times to accommodate more well-regarded players like Jeff Kent and Rico Brogna. He'd begun to establish himself at third base in 1998, only to watch his team acquire gold glover Robin Ventura. So he moved over to second, where he formed a deadly double play combo with Rey Ordoñez. He also had begun to hit, and had the knack for coming through with a big hit when the Mets needed it the most. But he was still little more than an afterthought in the minds of most, outshined by the bigger bats of Piazza, Ventura, and Olerud.

And that was fine with Fonzie. He not only didn't mind being overshadowed, but seemed to prefer it. In a profile of Alfonzo that ran just before the team left for Phoenix, he told Jack Curry of the Times, "I think it’s good when nobody notices you. Then, when everything’s over, they’ll look at you and see the numbers and say, ‘I didn’t know he could do that. I didn’t even notice this guy.’"

It was difficult for Alfonzo to go unnoticed when he put on the most prodigious offensive display in franchise history. At the Astrodome, Fonzie went 6-for-6, a double and three homer. He was the first Met to go deep three times in a game since Gary Carter did it in 1985. His 16 total bases set a new club record (formerly 14, set by Darryl Strawberry in '85) and were just two shy of the all-time record. When he rapped out a ninth inning single for his sixth hit of the day, the remaining Astros fans rewarded him with a standing ovation.

The stunning output upped his batting average a stunning 8 points in one day. It also forced people to notice he'd been putting up MVP-worthy stats all year. And in typical Alfonzo fashion, when asked for his favorite moment of this historic day, his response was, "The last out, because we won the game."

The Mets should have been riding high from this record-setting high, but struggled to score the next night against Astros starter Jose Lima. A late game-tying home run by John Olerud was negated when a rusty Turk Wendell (coming off six days of rest he didn't want) gave up a grand slam to Ken Caminiti, the difference in a 6-2 loss. But the offense returned with a vengeance in the final game at the Astrodome, as Robin Ventura drove in four runs, Roger Cedeño knocked in two, and Piazza and Olerud each belted a pair of doubles in a 9-5 victory. The Mets would head back home for six games against the Rockies and Giants, trailing the Braves by 2.5

Jim Callis: Miami Marlins' Andrew Heaney candidate to be October ace

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Miami Marlins starter Andrew Heaney was not notably successful during his first stint in the major leagues. But Jim Calli of Sports on Earth believes Heaney is a candidate to be a star come October.

Andrew Heaney didn't let his first taste of the major leagues get the best of him. And because of that, he may be a pitcher to watch come September.

Miami is still in the hunt for a wild card spot, and when rosters expand in just over a week, Heaney is a candidate to be promoted. But while Heaney's first few starts with the Marlins were not significantly successful, Jim Callis of Sports on Earth believes Heaney is a candidate to be an October ace.

Miami drafted Heaney ninth overall after he led NCAA Division I with 140 strikeouts in 118 innings as an Oklahoma State junior in 2012, and despite some acrimonious negotiations, they landed him for $2.6 million on the day of the signing deadline. Considered the most polished pitcher in his draft class, he has lived up to that billing by breezing through the minors and making his big league debut this June. He recorded a quality start against the Mets in his first outing, then got hit hard in his next three before returning to Triple-A.

Heaney quickly worked through Miami's minor league system, and rightfully was promoted after the Marlins lost Jose Fernandez. Even with the Marlins' starting pitching depth, Heaney was among the more qualified arms and likely still is.

In four starts, Heaney went 0-3 with a 6.53 ERA and 6.19 FIP. He was plagued by the long ball, and allowed at least four runs his three of the four.

While Miami tries to remain competitive, Nathan Eovaldi has been inconsistent and Manager Mike Redmond has yet to formally decide between Brad Hand and Brad Penny for the Marlins' fifth starting spot. Anthony DeSclafani, Randy Wolf, and Brian Flynn have all seen time in Miami's rotation, which Henderson Alvarez has slowly become the ace of since Fernandez went down.

Heaney's fastball and slider have both been praised, and his changeup has reportedly improved. He has been efficient in New Orleans, and could anchor Miami's rotation for the rest of the season.

Considering his limited major league experience and inconsistencies, it may be premature to say Heaney can be an October ace. But moving forward, he has the potential to become one of the best arm's on the Marlins' starting staff.

Mets prospect Dilson Herrera has New York in his sights

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What seemed like a standard, late-season waiver-wire deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates actually might have handed the Mets one of their best prospects in years.

With the Mets once again out of contention at this time last year, Sandy Alderson swung a trade with the Pirates that sent Marlon Byrd and John Buck to Pittsburgh for Dilson Herrera and Vic Black. Since then, Herrera has transformed himself into one of the Mets' top prospects heading into 2015.

Herrera began this year in High-A St. Lucie, where he hit .307/.355/.410 in 67 games. That was just a taste of what was to come. Currently the youngest position player in the Eastern League at the age of 20, Herrera has done nothing but hit since his promotion to Double-A Binghamton in mid-June.  Since then, Herrera has hit .336/.407/.564 with nine home runs. He has hit safely in 43 of 53 games and has nineteen multi-hit games.

In July, Baseball America included Herrera as the second baseman for its All-Prospect Team, saying:

Herrera may not have a single knockout tool, but the 20-year-old Colombian does many things well and has made the jump to Double-A in the second half without a misstep. In fact, he hit .320 and ranked third in the minors with 139 hits at the end of July, thanks to a quick swing and plenty of hard contact. He has enough power, speed and control of the zone to profile as a big league starter at the keystone.

It would be unfair to expect anything close to this type of production from Herrera whenever he makes his major league debut. But if Daniel Murphy becomes too expensive for the Mets, all eyes will be on Herrera, who figures to start next season in Triple-A Las Vegas.

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