Rumors are swirling that the Mets have interest in the Rockies' superstar shortstop, but is he worth trading for?

With the news last week that the Mets had made their interest in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez known to the Rockies, a great amount of debate sprung up regarding whether the cost would be worth it. Those of you who saw my comments know where I stand, but I will do my best to be objective in the analysis portion of this post before attempting to brainwash you with my conclusions at the end.

First things first, what pieces do the Rockies want from the Mets? While it's impossible to pin down exactly what it would take, we can make a reasonable approximation. Former Mets GM Jim Duquette thinks it'll take at least Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero, Dominic Smith, and more. Another package I've seen bandied about is Noah Syndergaard or Wheeler, Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Plawecki, and Smith, with many other variations cropping up. Four Top 100 prospects, all of whom have been included in the Top 50 of one list or another and two of whom are Top 50 by general consensus—this seems like a reasonably fair package.

I will reiterate the disclaimer I made above before continuing. It is impossible to know who the Rockies want exactly. The resulting analysis could be completely thrown off based on the opinions of Rockies' scouts and which Mets prospects strike their fancy. They hold basically all the bargaining power if Mets' management really wants to complete a trade. With that in mind, let's press forward.

Troy Tulowitzki has been the best shortstop in baseball for a while, and is having an even more ridiculous season this year. He's mashing an absurd .340/.432/.603, good for a 172 wRC+. His defense has also been a plus, leading to a compiled 5.1 WAR in only 375 PA. He was having a healthy season before tweaking his quad, and if his personal statements are to be believed, the injury is nothing serious and the Rockies are simply playing it safe because they're awful. He's on pace for a 7-8 WAR season, and is, in a word, awesome.

However, the Mets are not trading for Tulo's past or present. They're trading for his future. What does the value look like? The table below shows his salary and projected WAR. For an established player like Tulo, I will suspend my disbelief of the Oliver projection system (I'm not a fan) and live with their numbers, because they are the best resource available. Those numbers only go out to 2018, so I projected a decline I feel is reasonable for 2019-2021.

*these values will likely be $20M or more due to escalators in his contract

Hot diggity, that's a lot of WAR in the next 5 years. But before we embrace these numbers fully, let's step back and make a couple observations. Oliver projects an 11.9 defensive value (2014 tally) forward for each of the next 7 years. Given his many nagging injuries, the inconsistency of defensive metrics, and general aging, this is simply not realistic. Knock some WAR off for that. The second, bigger problem to me is that Oliver projects 600 PA every year. Given Tulo's injury history, this is most certainly not reasonable, especially as he ages. But even with those caveats, Tulo is probably going to be an awesome player.

Now, let's look at how we fill our holes after this trade. We'll have lost a pitcher who was projected to be in our rotation for 2015 and our starting LF for 2016 and beyond. These are holes we'll have to fill with money. Though things don't exist in a vacuum, let's fill those spots with a Ruben Tejeda equivalent—a 1.0 WAR player who costs $500,000. Plawecki and Smith don't cost us anything in terms of production, but I will touch on the loss of depth later.

What value would these prospects have brought to the Mets? Let's start with Thor, our major league-ready God of thunder. Here, Oliver projections fail us, as they are pretty awful with projecting prospects. Instead, we'll have to suspend disbelief and make our own numbers. For Syndergaard, I will try to be conservative and say he follows the Wheeler path rather than the Harvey one, settling in as a top-of-the-rotation arm by late 2018. Assuming he comes up late this year (putting him on track for free agency in 2021), that value is shown in the table below.

My WAR projections won't be perfect, but I think they accurately reflect Syndergaard's ceiling. But that is also a problem; prospects bust, even Met prospects (shocking I know). Thankfully, we have data on the bust rates of top prospects. As a Top 20 pitching prospect, Syndergaard has a bust rate of about 63%. Given his command profile and the fact that he's been knocking on the door of Top 10 status, we can optimistically push that number to about 55%. Still, that is a huge bust rate, and we shall have to discount his WAR as a result.

As for salary, we'll again have to suspend our disbelief. Say he makes $30 million in those three arbitration years and the Mets get a nice bargain on his 2021 salary with an early career extension at $15 million. Again, optimistic, but this isn't a precise science. That gives us a projection of 24.1 WAR at a cost of $46.5 million with a large bust rate of 55%. There are several obvious problems here (money is not precise, bust rates are based on historical data when public top prospect lists were not as popular or accurate), but it will do as a rough estimate.

For Nimmo, the comp I've always used (and seen others use as well) is Shin-Soo Choo. Choo didn't get his first real shot until 26, but his skill set is similar to Nimmo's. Choo probably has a tad more power but was a poor corner outfielder, while Nimmo should be an above-average LF (or even a decent CF, but that's not the scenario we're considering here). Again, these are homemade WAR projections, but they will do as a rough estimate.

As a Top 50 prospect with high strikeout and high walk totals, Nimmo's bust rate is around 65%. As a Nimmo fan, that hurts. For salary, let's say he makes $25 million in his three arbitration years, which yields a total of 21 WAR at a cost of $26.5 million. Again, greatly simplified at every step of the approximation, but a reasonable projection to work with.

I did not concern myself with projecting Plawecki and Smith. Their impact on the Mets is more an effect of having depth (more on that later). Smith in particular is so far away and plays the easiest position on the field, so projecting him to determine what value he adds in this time frame when a replacement could be found relatively easily is a pointless exercise. To finish this scenario, we of course have our Ruben Tejeda of shortstops, also known as Ruben Tejeda. 1.0 WAR at $500,000. Bleh.

Lets's compare scenarios now by comparing the production we get from the shortstop and left field positions and 1 starting pitcher slot over this time span:

What do we make of this data? With all the caveats and restrictions on projections I've mentioned as we worked through the logic, our final case comes out almost equal in terms of WAR cost-efficiency. Scenario 1 guarantees more WAR, and ignores the potential contribution of other prospects like Michael Conforto and Steven Matz, plus gives us the bona fide superstar the fan base has long been lusting for.

But this is not the end of our analysis. If just one of either Nimmo or Syndergaard reach their ceiling, the WAR efficiency swings even further in favor of Scenario 2 and brings the total WAR much closer to an even mark, even if the other busts completely. Furthermore, we've reached our greater WAR in Scenario 1 by trading two other assets in Plawecki and Smith, sacrificing depth that could be used if d'Arnaud's hot streak is just a hot streak or that could have been traded in another deal. Scenario 2 also neglects contributions at SS from Amed Rosario or Gavin Cecchini down the line, or from sketchier candidates like Matt Reynolds and Wilmer Flores. No risk has been factored into Tulowitzki's projection either, and there is undeniably a decent amount of risk there given his injury history and the fact that he would have to adjust to leaving Coors Field (though I think this latter point is not much of a problem). Finally, that additional financial burden could seriously impede the Mets' ability to retain their young stars.

At this point, my bias is probably obvious. I began writing this post heavily opposed to the idea of trading for Tulowitzki, as awesome as it would be to see him playing shortstop next to David Wright. The numbers are not nearly as stark as I expected them to be, and I was probably a tad optimistic in my projections for Syndergaard and Nimmo in terms of WAR and possibly salary. Still, I stand by my conclusion. Sandy Alderson has done a fantastic job of building up our farm, and the pipeline of talent is almost about reach the major leagues. I am loathe to sacrifice our depth when it is this very system that has consistently kept teams like the Braves and the Cardinals in contention year in and year out, particularly for a player with significant injury concerns who will soon enter his decline phase.

I know people will mention some big trades to disprove the point that the best teams don't make these kinds of acquisitions. The Matt Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, and Mark Teixeira trades are three cases I'd like to look at to further justify my position and hopefully change this opinion.

When the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday in 2009 from Oakland, he was a 29-year-old masher having a down season on an expiring contract. To get him, they gave up one top prospect in Brett Wallace (ranked 40th by Baseball America), and then two additional, complementary pieces. This is the equivalent of trading Brandon Nimmo, a pitcher like Casey Meisner, and a throw-in of some kind. They then gave Holliday a massive contract in free agency. This was a fantastic deal for them. They acquired a slugger with 2-3 years of prime left for mostly financial cost, while only depleting their depth minimally. To acquire Tulowitzki, we'd have to both destroy our depth and pay the huge deal, not to mention that a good deal of Tulo's value is tied up in his ability to play shortstop and that Holliday had nowhere near the injury history that Tulowitzki has.

The Tigers traded one Top 10 prospect (Cameron Maybin) and one former Top 10 prospect (Andrew Miller) for Miguel Cabrera in 2007. A Met equivalent of the total package they gave up is probably along the lines of what we're considering sending the Rockies for Tulowitzki. The key difference is that Cabrera was only 24 and already hitting like a Hall of Fame player. The Tigers traded for a player with no injury history and an absurd major league resume for his age, and they then got the best years of his career. Tulowitzki isn't ancient, but he isn't young either. He will soon enter the decline phase of his career, and playing the hardest position on the field with all his nagging injuries will take its toll. If he was 24, I would drive that prospect package with Herrera strapped to the roof of my car to Colorado tonight. But he's not.

Lastly, the Mark Teixeira trade. The Braves acquired a 27-year-old Mark Teixeira in 2007 with 1.5 years of team control left. They gave up Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz, and Beau Jones. They then traded him to the Angels a year later and got...Casey Kotchman. Oops. This is an example of how giving up huge prospect packages can backfire immensely. The Braves gave the Rangers a good starting pitcher, a shutdown reliever, a solid catcher (though he bloomed outside of Texas), and one of the better shortstops around for 1 year of Teixeira, got nowhere, and then were unwilling to pay him in free agency. Arguably one of the worst trades of the past decade and certainly the worst in Braves history, it should serve as a cautionary tale for Met fans gung ho to get Tulo.

I'll close my argument with a quote from Jurgen Klinsmann, a rather controversial comment he made about Kobe Bryant when justifying his decision to leave Landon Donavan of the World Cup roster:

"This always happens in America. Kobe Bryant, for example - why does he get a two-year contract extension for $50 million? Because of what he is going to do in the next two years for the Lakers? Of course not. Of course not. He gets it because of what he has done before. It makes no sense. Why do you pay for what has already happened?"

The highlighting is my own, to pull out the point I'm trying to make. I am not suggesting that Tulowitzki would be as great a drain as Kobe is to the Lakers, but the idea is valid. Do not trade our bright future for what Tulowitzki has done in the past. Trust in our development and target smaller trades (CarGo might even be a better option, if the cost is reasonable) that supplement our rising, young core.

In short, say no to Tulo.

Prospect bust rates based on http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects">this article at Royals Review. A more accurate method may have been to create three different scenarios—bust, success, superior—in projections and then take the weighted averages of each. Unfortunately, time is a finite resource.

The Mets' second baseman still has one year of team control left, but the team could improve in other areas by dealing him.

Whether or not to hold onto Daniel Murphy is one of the more complicated decisions facing the Mets' front office this summer. On one hand, trading away the 29-year-old second baseman during the prime of his career could strengthen an already strong Mets farm system. It would also open up a space in the infield for Wilmer Flores to finally show what he can do in a full-time role. Even if Flores flops, Dilson Herrera is hitting very well at Double-A and could be a second baseman of the future himself.

On the other hand, the Mets still have control over Murphy for one more year beyond this one. Trading him now could improve the club's future prospects, but enough concessions have bee made for the future already. The way things are going right now, the Mets could be ready to win in 2015, and dealing Murphy would weaken a potential playoff contender. With players like Jacob deGrom and Lucas Duda steadily rising their stock, the next Mets playoff team doesn't seem as far away as it did even a month ago.

Availability

Mets general manager Sandy Alderson recently told reporters that the team is likely to sit up at the trade deadline. However, with Flores and Herrera waiting in the wings, it's highly unlikely that Murphy is untouchable. The Mets would listen to an offers if they could get their hands on some close-to-the-majors outfield talent. A player like the Dodgers' Joc Pederson would be coveted by New York, but Los Angeles is getting what it needs at second base with Dee Gordon. The point is, the Mets would need to get one or two pieces that could help them in 2015 and beyond if they were to part with Murphy.

The Trade Market

Not too long ago it was reported that the Blue Jays and the Giants were in on Murphy, and neither team has since found a solution at second base. Toronto as experimented with a variety of players at second base, while San Francisco tried Brandon Hicks for a while before grabbing Dan Uggla off the scrap heap. Either playoff contender would consider Murphy a major upgrade at the keystone, at least offensively.

Other good teams with a hole at second base include the Athletics -- who get what they need defensively out of Eric Sogard, but could use some more pop at the position -- and the Orioles, from whom Jonathan Schoop is hitting just .216/.253/.329 this season. The Yankees also fancy themselves a contender, so we might as well throw them in the mix as well. Brian Roberts signed on to be the team's second baseman, but he's just slashing .239/.302/.363 and is liable to become injured at any moment.

The Return

The Mets' two biggest holes right now are outfield and shortstop, so you'd have to start a deal with a solid prospect at one of those positions. Toronto's outfielder Dalton Pompey was just promoted to Double-A and has the speed and on-base ability to be a future asset at the top of the batting order. San Francisco's Joe Panik has already seen some time in the majors this season, but if the Giants liked him that much, they wouldn't have signed Uggla to play second base. Panik also hasn't played shortstop at the higher levels of the minors.

Even after parting ways with Addison Russell, Oakland has a top prospect at shortstop in Daniel Robertson. However, the A's would be unlikely to part with another valuable chip for a second baseman that their offense doesn't really need. Another possibility is outfielder Billy Burns, who has wheels to rival those of Billy Hamilton, but probably won't ever be as skilled with the bat.

The Orioles don't have many young position players that are close to the majors, but the Yankees could offer outfielders Aaron Judge and Jake Dave to make things interesting.

A breakdown of the contracts belonging to some of the Cardinals' potential trade targets.

The MLB non-waiver trade deadline falls this Thursday at 3:00 p.m. CT. The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly prioritizing a starter as the deadline nears. The market is beginning to take shape:

• The Giants saved the Cardinals from acquiring Jake Peavy by trading for the righty.
• The Red Sox are reportedly open for business and ready to sell Jon Lester or John Lackey, if the price is right.
• The Phillies have allegedly begun making outrageous trade demands for Cole Hamels, per Jayson Stark. One of the nine teams to which Hamels cannot block a trade with his no-trade clause? The Cardinals.
• Jon Morosi tweets that the Cardinals had a scout at the Mets-Phillies game in which Bartolo Colon and A.J. Burnett squared off.
• If you aren't reading Stark's trade deadline coverage, you should be. He also shares scouts' takes on Cliff Lee's unimpressive return from the DL. Stark passes along that Lee won't be moved until August at the earliest, if even then.

If you didn't think Ruben Amaro was rather dumb and consequently bad at his job before reading this post, I ask you to fully absorb the option-year buyouts he has negotiated for the Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Burnett contracts.

• Lee has a $27.5 million club option for 2016, his age 37 season, with a $12.5 million buyout.
• Hamels has a $20 million club option for 2019 with a $6 million buyout.
• Burnett's option is perhaps the strangest. There is a $15 million mutual option, but also a $7.5 million player option. The buyout is $1 million.

The trio of Phillies pitchers are each owed a fair chunk of change. This is exacerbated by the pricy buyouts the Philadelphia front office agreed to in the contracts. Coupled with the front office's current demands and one wonders whether any of the Phillies pitchers will be moved by the end of business on Thursday.

The Cardinals will keep player salary in mind when deciding whether or not to make a trade this week. So keep this chart in mind when the trade gossip really starts to pick up in the days to come.

How does Jacob deGrom’s recent run of excellence compare to Dwight Gooden’s series of dominating stretches that earned him the 1984 Rookie Of The Year?

Last night SNY sat down with Mets legend Dwight Gooden during its broadcast of the Mets-Phillies game. The topic? Gooden’s enthrallingly epic rookie season that took place 30 years ago. On the heels of yet another dominating performance yesterday by powerhouse rookie Jacob deGrom, SNY’s chat with the Doctor underscored how exciting it’s been to watch deGrom pitch lately.

Since the days of the K Korner and, subsequently, Gooden’s much-too-premature decline, Mets fans have been waiting for the next charismatic flame-thrower to sweep us off our feet. Matt Harvey filled that role in 2013 as a sophomore, but his future is, as of last October 22nd, uncertain.

So now we have Mr. deGrom, confident and capable of capturing our attention every fifth day. The lanky right-hander started his rookie season in May, and, despite pitching to a 0–2 record, showed that he belongs in Flushing by sporting an ERA of 2.42. Not only that, but his demeanor was calm and cool–despite the stress of pitching for this year’s feeble Mets’ offense.

After struggling a bit in June (1–2 with a 4.71 ERA), deGrom has thrown himself into the Rookie of the Year discussion by overwhelming his opponents in July. In fact, during his last four starts (dating back to July 8th against the Braves), deGrom has not only been good, he has been Cy Young material.

deGrom’s numbers from July 8th through Sunday’s victory over Milwaukee tell the story:

Jacob deGrom (July 8 - July 27, 2014)

In an attempt to gain a true appreciation of deGrom’s stats over these four games, it is helpful to compare this sample to a similar stretch during Gooden’s rookie season of 1984 (for which he did win the ROY award).

According to The Baseball Almanac, it so happens that Gooden’s last four starts in August of ’84 (starting with an August 11th manhandling of Marvell Wynne and his not-quite-mighty Pirates) were similar to what deGrom has done over the past month:

Dwight Gooden (August 11 - August 27, 1984)

Granted, these numbers are not exactly the same, and an exceptional month does not a season make. But any time a pitcher has, over the course of four consecutive starts, kept both his WHIP and ERA below 1.00 while also maintaining a strikeout ratio at or around 10 K/9, we are witnessing a certain level of dominance that does not happen often.

So what does all this mean for deGrom and his rookie season? Is this stretch of strength a fluke? Or are we witnessing the birth of something special, something that we’ll be discussing in 2044?

But as we watched and listened to Gooden last night on SNY, we remembered what he meant to the Mets back in ’84. And yes, Mets fans, you are allowed to imagine a future in which deGrom (or Harvey, or Wheeler, or Syndergaard—or all of them, for that matter!) blossoms into something similar to what Gooden was.

After all, pitchers do sometimes, somehow, improve on stretches like deGrom’s. Here’s what Gooden did during the last four September starts of his ’84 ROY campaign:

Dwight Gooden (September 7 – September 23, 1984)

And we all know what Doctor K did the NEXT year…

The veteran outfielder has had a rough month at the plate.

Back at the end of March, the Mets signed 40-year-old Bobby Abreu to a minor league deal. It was a seemingly inconsequential move at the time, as the outfielder hadn’t played in a major league game since the 2012 season. But Abreu reported to the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas and hit to the tune of a .395/.489/579 triple-slash line, good enough marks to earn him a promotion to the big leagues after fifteen games.

Cast off by the Phillies during spring training, Abreu became a feel-good story for the Mets as he raked in the early going. From his Mets debut on April 22 through June 15, Abreu hit .308/.385/.462 in 91 plate appearances. He hit just one home run over that span but doubled nine times and walked as many times as he struck out: eleven. While the Mets hadn’t found an everyday corner outfielder to complement Juan Lagares and Curtis Granderson, it seemed like they might have stumbled upon a useful part-time player in Abreu.

Since then, however, Abreu has really struggled. In just 48 plate appearances from June 16 through July 27, Abreu has hit .122/.250/.122. He’s still walked nearly as often as he struck out, but without an extra-base hit over the last month, he hasn’t been nearly as valuable with the bat. In the span of a month, his slash line for the season dropped to .244/.338/.345.

Abreu probably wasn’t ever going to be as good as he looked over his first two months with the Mets. He’s probably at least a little bit better than he’s been over the last month, too. On the season, Abreu is now a roughly-league-average hitter when accounting for league and ballpark, a level of production that doesn’t really work with his lack of defensive prowess.

Of course, the Mets’ alternatives are not leaps and bounds better than Abreu. Chris Young hasn’t played the kind of defense that he used to, and he’s hit just .207/.291/.366 this year. Eric Young Jr. has been better with the glove, but he’s hit just .231/.316/.306.

The Mets have a few alternatives to Abreu in Las Vegas. Kirk Nieuwenhuis has bounced back and forth between the Mets and 51s this year, but he’s hit well in limited playing time in the big leagues and, like Abreu, hits from the left side of the plate. Andrew Brown has raked in the minors, but he’s struggled in his major league stints. Matt den Dekker has hit well in Vegas, but he barely hit in his brief time with the Mets this year. And Cesar Puello has gotten limited playing time in Vegas, though his bat has finally started to heat up over the last few weeks.

Considering the Mets went several weeks with six outfielders on their active roster and now has five, it doesn’t seem likely the team would replace Abreu with anyone other than an outfielder. So given Abreu’s lack of production over the last month, should the Mets replace him with someone from Vegas or let him keep trying to get back on track in the majors?

Hey, that US run in the World Cup was great fun. Maybe you are considering getting more into soccer this Fall, when the European club season kicks off. Here are some suggestions from one Mets fan to another.

With what was arguably the best World Cup of my lifetime now in the rear view mirror, soccer fans around the world now turn their attention to the European club season, kicking off in a few weeks. Perhaps you are one of the Americans that got swept up by the excitement of this year's World Cup, and want to explore the sport a bit more. This seems to happen every four years or so, but the pundits tell me that this time soccer will really take America by storm. Since you are most likely a Mets fan, I figured I would compile a list of teams to follow that will make the transition into the world of European football as seamless as possible.

(And yes, I realize that Bill Simmons already sort of did this a few years ago.)

There are several factors to consider when picking a soccer club to follow.

(1) Will I actually be able to watch them play?

This is less of an issue now that NBC Sports shows every single Barclay's Premier League game either on TV or online, so even if you pick West Ham United for some reason (not on my list, but to each their own), you'll be able to watch every one of their 38 Premier League contests. The Spanish and Italian leagues get reasonable coverage as well, assuming you invested in a serious digital or satellite sports package for your television. Elsewhere, it gets dicey. BeIn Sports, which is on DirectTV and in some digital cable packages, has the rights to the English Championship, but prefers to show such wonderful programming as "Dr. Ho's HoPhysio Back Belt" or "Sexy Face at Any Age," instead of actually showing the live soccer that they own the rights to. And if you decide to go for Strømsgodset of the Norwegian Tippeligaen (a defensible choice), you might be completely out of luck.

Of course as with anything popular with people on the Internet, there are a number of semi-legal ways to watch almost every European league, if you know where to look.

(2) Will I actually want to watch them play live?

If you are a world traveller, top-class European football offers you a wide variety of sumptuous destinations: Barcelona, Madrid, Amsterdam, Monaco, Paris, Milan, Rome, and London. It also offers you Manchester, Liverpool, Donetsk, and Dortmund.

Also, soccer is a highly underrated live sport.

(3) Can I watch the games with other people?

I'm limiting this solely to NYC, because it's the area where I know the soccer fan culture the best, but for me, one of the best parts of being a soccer fan is showing up bleary-eyed at seven AM with a bunch of fellow fans and having a few beers while we yell at the shoddy BeIN digital streams. An active supporter's club is always a plus, and it can help with the transition for a new fan.

I will also be grading each team's 2014 home kit. Now you shouldn't solely pick a team based on how smart they look on match day, but the home shirt is integral to the soccer fan experience, so it's important to know what you will be wearing.

So with those criteria in mind, here is my list of European clubs that might appeal to various strata of Mets fans:

If you really enjoyed The Worst Team Money Can Buy, but wish it had a slightly more upbeat ending:

(photo credit: Ben Hoskins)

Queens Park Rangers

Queens Park Rangers are my usual go-to Mets equivalent in the Premier League (when they are actually in the Premier League). They are dwarfed by the major clubs in London (Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea), and have often tried to spend their way into relevancy with predictably mixed to poor results. Despite famously having spent more money on players than the last two UEFA Champions League runners-up (Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund), QPR spent last season in the Championship, the second tier of English football, after being relegated from the Premier League at the end of the 2012-13 season. They didn't exactly run away with the Championship either, finishing fourth and needing the playoffs to beat a path back into the top flight. Clearly having learned from their mistakes, they have already been linked to Ajax striker Kolbeinn Sigthorsson, who won't come cheap, and signed former England international, Rio Ferdinand. Ferdinand was a world-class player for over a decade, but is now 35 and has back issues. I don't think you can get a more mid-90s Mets signing than that.

They do have some likable young talent. Charlie Austin stands out most notably, and despite a poor first season, Yun Suk-young has some potential as well. Of course, they also have Joey Barton, who is, to put it kindly, a bit of a dick (in fact, there are 3,850,000 results on google for "Joey Barton is a dick"). In better news, if you tried to get into club soccer after the last World Cup, there may be some familiar names here like Shaun Wright-Phillips, Robert Green, and Julio Cesar (currently on loan at Toronto FC).

2014-15 kit quality (on the 20-80 scouting scale)

45, fringe-average

If you know my personal rooting interests, you'll know I am partial to blue and white. I like the horizontal stripes (or hoops, in the parlance), but this year's home shirt is missing last year's stylish collar and red trim. Like most non-marquee clubs that go through a big kit manufacturer (Nike in this case), the end result is fairly bland.

Mets team(s) they will remind you of

I already compared them to those early-to-mid nineties Mets teams, so pick whatever depressing year suits your fancy.

Why you might want to consider someone else

They aren't a particularly likable team, even without Joey Barton, and I'd imagine they'll be one of the bookie's favorites to drop back down this year. If you are going to pick a Premier League team, you might want to pick a better one. And I suppose you could also reasonably ask me: Who would voluntarily root for the mid-90s Mets?

You might also consider

Newcastle United (which has a very large fan presence in NYC, though you won't understand a word they say), AS Monaco

If you want to root for a 'good' team that still reminds you of the Mets:

(photo credit: Clive Rose)

Tottenham Hotspur

Oh Spurs.

Now I can't in good conscience recommend one of the elite European sides. I can't stop you from picking Manchester United or Real Madrid or Bayern Munich, but if you were inclined to jump into soccer fandom through a team with a rich history and more spending money than some of the smaller South American nations, you'd probably be a Yankees fan anyway.

As far as English teams go, the clubs most likely to get you derided for bandwagon jumping are the aforementioned Man U, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham. By the same token, those teams generally have the largest and most active supporter's clubs (though weirdly, I tend to see more Aston Villa fans at my home bar than some of the bigger clubs). Tottenham is the one big English club I will recommend to Mets fans though. Their fanbase is comparably and familiarly neurotic. For example, this year they are complaining that the team's sponsor's logo is red, because that is traditional rival Arsenal's color. Complaining about the color of the uniform? Definitely Metsy. They also have two titles in their (admittedly longer than the Mets) history and sit in the shadow of a bigger rival, Arsenal (though for the love of god, don't bring that up with them).

Recently, Tottenham has played incredibly frustrating, occasionally brilliant soccer. They've brought in Mauricio Pochettino, the ex-Southampton manager, who should employ the same fun, creative style he did with the Saints. And they have the talent to pull it off, including what seems like half the Belgian national team. You would think their big 2013 buy, Spain's Roberto Saldado would have to play better this year under Pochettino, that their veteran back four won't be as shaky, that whatever Southampton players they poach will adapt well, and that Hugo Lloris will continue to be one of the best keepers in England. But it's Spurs, so you never know. You only suspect that pain and underachievement will follow. As a Mets fan, this should be pretty familiar.

2014-15 kit quality (on the 20-80 scouting scale)

45, fringe-average

I don't have a problem with the red AIA logo (I also never made a big deal about the black Mets jerseys though). However, the yellow trim and weird detailing around the collar doesn't do it for me. I have generally liked their kit designs in the past, but the Under Armour entries of the last few years have either been bland or, like this year, over-designed.

Mets team(s) they will remind you of

Occasionally brilliant, more often frustrating, and in the end bested by by teams that aren't necessarily more talented than them. Sounds like the 1987-1990 Mets to me.

Why you might want to consider someone else

Spurs will make you crazy, man. Also, Bill Simmons picked them.

You might also consider

Aston Villa, FC Porto

If you just want the closest approximation of 2014 Mets fandom:

(photo credit: Laurence Griffiths)

Birmingham City

Mets fans who have suffered through the last decade or so of Mets baseball will feel right at home with Birmingham City.

- They play in a big city (Birmingham) where they have always been in the shadow of a bigger team (Aston Villa).

- They were so broke last season, they couldn't even afford to fire their manager as they slid down the table post-Boxing-Day.

- They won only two games at home all season.

Pretty much sounds like recent Mets teams to me.

Birmingham narrowly avoided relegation to League One on the last day of the 2013-14 season (okay, the Mets comparisons stop there) with a late Paul Caddis equalizer, and will likely be a trendy preseason pick to be in the relegation mix once again.

It hasn't always been this bad though. Brum was in the Premier League as recently as three years ago, when they bagged the League Cup over Arsenal. And no one will accuse you of being a bandwagon jumper, like they might if you jump into European soccer as a Manchester United or Real Madrid fan.

2014-15 kit quality (on the 20-80 scouting scale)

60, plus

Brum ditched the blue and white panels for this year's kit and went with a very stylish all blue number. It has a collar(!), and the thin stripes give it a nice dimension. It's an excellent effort. The away kit is unremarkable, but that isn't always a bad thing in the soccer world.

Mets team(s) they will remind you of

The post-Madoff, totally depressing 2012-2014 Mets.

Why you might want to consider someone else

I'm also not entirely sure why anyone would voluntarily root for the 2014 Mets, and since they are in the Championship, you'll probably only get to see ten or so games across the length of the season. Also, Birmingham isn't exactly the crown jewel of England's tourism industry. And finally, it could go downhill very quickly for Brum; remember, MLB doesn't have relegation.

You might also consider

Blackpool FC

If your favorite Met is Mike Piazza and you occasionally got drunk and shouted "Forza Azzurri" during the World Cup:

(photo credit: Claudio Villa)

AC Milan

Milan is by far the most successful team I'll recommend. They've won seven Champions League titles, second only to Real Madrid's ten, to go with 18 Serie A (Italian League) titles and 11 Italian Cup wins. That is a lot of hardware. They have household names up and down the lineup (Robinho, Michael Essien, Keisuke Honda, Nigel de Jong, and Mario Balotelli, who is a fair approximation of Jordany Valdespin as a world-class footballer).

#milan#selfie#Balotelli#me#ManCityVsMilan pic.twitter.com/17fQ1OJ1ob

— NAWAF (@NA_B27) July 27, 2014

So why do they appear on a list of teams that would feel familiar to Mets fans? Well, terrible ownership and crippling financial problems of course! They are owned by former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, who is having his own, uh, fraud issues. This might cause him to sell off some of those world-class players like, uh, Mario Balotelli. The financial issues also contributed to one of the worst results in Milan's recent history, an 8th place finish in Serie A that will see them shut out of European competition for the first time since 1998.

On the plus side, Milan is a heck of a vacation destination, and their fanbase has a strong presence in NYC. Also, Serie A games tend to kick off later than English games, so you won't be getting tanked over breakfast (may not be a plus for some).

2014-15 kit quality (on the 20-80 scouting scale)

40, below-average

I actually really like the classic red and black stripes of Milan, but Adidas' 2014-15 kit is likely to be a bit controversial. Personally for me it is just very, very busy, though I like the mock-style collar. Of course you can always just get a shirt from a different season. This one is pretty nice.

Mets team(s) they will remind you of

Financial troubles? About to lose their best player? A smattering of other old stars past their prime? The bottom dropping out after a run of success? Sounds like the 1978 Mets to me.

Why you might want to consider someone else

Berlusconi is one of the few professional sports owners less sympathetic than the Wilpons. Maybe more sympathetic than M. Donald Grant though.

You might also consider

S.S. Lazio

If you really don't want to put a lot of effort in (or are French):

FC Metz

(photo credit: fcmetz.com)

To be honest, I wasn't even aware that FC Metz existed until a French twitter follower pointed them out to me. They were just promoted to Ligue 1 on the backs of their 2013-14 Ligue 2 championship. And the comparisons to the Mets go beyond the name. Metz have a renowned youth academy that has developed many French stars (due to the nature of European football, they usually end up getting sold off to bigger clubs after short stints with Metz's first team). And our homophonic cousins were also good in the late-90s, winning the French League Cup in 1996 and finishing 2nd in Ligue 1 in 1998.

Beyond that, I don't know really know that much about them, other than Google maps tells me Metz is a pretty long hike from both Paris and the south of France. Though not that far from Belgium, if that is your thing.

2014-15 kit quality (on the 20-80 scouting scale)

50, average

It's another generic Nike kit, and one with A LOT of sponsors. Like the Milan kit, it's too busy, but I like the panel look as opposed to the solid red. And the away shirt is pretty swanky. Too bad neither is blue and orange to really complete the effect.

Mets team(s) they will remind you of

I mean, they are named "Metz," what more do you want?

Why you might want to consider someone else

I don't know enough about French football to proffer a guess about Metz's chances of staying up in Ligue 1 next season, but I do know enough about French football to mention that you won't be able to watch much of them without resorting to quasi-legal means.

You might also consider

METZ the band

If you want to dream on the possibility of new ownership (or just have drinks with me at seven in the morning):

(photo credit: Michael Regan)

Sheffield Wednesday

Ah, my beloved owls. Like the Mets, they haven't really seen much glory since 2000 (the last year Wednesday spent in the Premier League), but still have an incredibly loyal, incredibly neurotic fanbase (hmm, this seems to be a trend). After years of bouncing between the bottom of the Championship and the top of League One, and after barely surviving a winding-up order in 2010, the club was bought this summer by Azerbaijani billionaire Hafiz Mammadov. The sale is still being completed, so Wednesday aren't awash in new players yet, but the future finally looks bright for a club with as many first division titles as Chelsea and Manchester City. At least that is what I keep telling myself. This year's team lacks star power of course, but they have had a few USMNT players come through in the past, most notably midfielder John Harkes, who became the first American to score at Wembley Stadium, and last year, center back Oguchi Onyewu.

Also, like the Mets, there is an intriguing group of young talent here. Sam Hutchinson has been brought in full time from Chelsea after a loan spell last year. He is only 24 and was getting first-team time with the Blues when he wasn't dealing with horrible knee issues. If Wednesday can keep him healthy, he can be a force in the defensive midfield along with fan favorite Jose Semedo (he's magic, you know). Up front they have a young cadre of strikers in Adthe "Albanian Pele" Nuhiu, Scottish national Chris Maguire, and the homegrown Caolan Lavery. And like with Birmingham City, no one is going to accuse you of jumping on a bandwagon. Plus, we have a vibrant supporter's club, (note to self: Tell Paddy to update the website more often) that gets 10-20 South Yorkshire dudes out to the bar for those obnoxious 7:15 AM kickoffs.

2014-15 kit quality (on the 20-80 scouting scale)

60, plus

Wednesday has gotten some guff on the twittersphere for switching to a Sondico, a small English kit manufacturer, after spending the last few seasons with Puma. Honestly though, the last few Puma kits were garbage (last year's-- pictured above-- was famously compared to an Everton shirt being pulled out of a Tesco bag), and I think Sondico did a fine job with this year's home shirt. It has a pretty cool retro feel to it. They still haven't announced an away kit, despite their first match being away to Brighton in, uh, two weeks, but that's Wednesday for you.

Mets team(s) they will remind you of

The 2016 Mets, after a new commissioner and money woes force the Wilpons to finally sell to someone with money?

Why you might want to consider someone else

Like Birmingham City, Wednesday will only get a dozen or so games televised this year (first one is 7:15 AM August 30th against Nottingham Forest if you want to join me for a few beers). And like the Mets, Wednesday is pretty good at screwing things up even when the future looks bright.

You might also consider

I have a soft spot for Everton, I guess?

But of course, we all know you are actually going to pick...*sigh*

(photo credit: Clive Mason)

Arsenal

I still don't quite understand the rather large intersection between Mets fans and Arsenal fans. While I wrote above that Wednesday and Spurs fans are neurotic like Mets fans, I should now note that they are not nearly as neurotic as Arsenal fans. I remember sitting at Football Factory early last season, watching a winless Wednesday squad at the bottom of the Championship play a listless draw with Yorkshire rivals Barnsley, while down at the end of the bar, a group of mostly American Arsenal fans groused about their team WHICH WAS ON TOP OF THE PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE AT THE TIME. I get the Nick Hornsby thing (I'm not a fan of his work, but whatever). I get that they are a well-run organization with the whole "Moneyball" thing going for them, but I can't in good conscience recommend an actually good Premier League team (Spurs don't really count).

But you are going to pick Arsenal. Because in the end, everyone picks Arsenal.

Alexis Sanchez is pretty awesome though, I will grant you that.

DO IT, PLEASE.

Apparently, the Mets are willing to eat some of Bartolo Colon's salary in a trade ... although he might prefer to eat it himself.

That's all. That's the only joke about Colon's physical appearance that will appear in this article. Sorry.

Also apparently, the Royals "could be in play" for Colon, according to the New York Daily News' Andy Martino. The sticking point is, of course, money. The Royals might not be able to add the $14.25 million remaining on Colon's contract -- it runs through the end of next season.

So, in order to get the Mets to eat part of that amount, the Royals might have to make a more substantial offer than they wold have otherwise. But, there's also this:

"Absolutely nothing" doing on Colon trade talks at moment, per source. Chance that changes later in week, but nada at present.

— Andy Martino (@MartinoNYDN) July 29, 2014

Colon is 41 years old and he's listed at 5'11" and 285 pounds. That's not a joke. That's just what Baseball Reference says in black and white. Jokes are synonymous with Bartolo Colon, but he's actually a human being. And if you ever stood next to him while he was pitching, your jaw would drop.

Over the last two and-a-half years, he's thrown 484⅓ innings with a 3.25 ERA and a 3.47 FIP. That's better than Jon Lester. Obviously what he's doing right now is more important. This season, he has a 3.88 ERA and a 3.41 FIP. Most of his peripheral stats are similar to his numbers from a year ago -- when he was named an All-Star and finished sixth in the American League in Cy Young balloting.

Where would he fit into the Kansas City rotation? Well, for now he'd fit nicely in the spot vacated by Jason Vargas -- who will return shortly after having an appendectomy on July 9. After Vargas returns, maybe Colon could usurp Jeremy Guthrie's spot in the sequence. Or maybe he'd just give them a deeper rotation.

It all depends on why the Mets want in return. It could potentially be a top ten prospect in the Royals' system, considering the Mets were able to get that kind of return for a half-season of Marlon Byrd last year.

Particulars aside, if the thought of Bartolo Colon pitching for the Royals doesn't bring at least the thought of smiling to mind then you're probably doing it wrong.

Cole Hamels pitched eight shutout innings, while Dillon Gee and Josh Edgin combined to serve up three home runs to help the Phillies even the series at a game apiece.

Perhaps sensing that it might be his final bow in Phillies uniform, Cole Hamels shut down the Mets offense for eight innings and helped Philadelphia get a 6-0 win at Citi Field tonight.

Though Hamels scattered six hits over the first four innings, the Mets failed to put anything together against a pitcher that had a 5.06 ERA against them over his last three seasons. He struck out eight, walked no one, and retired the last thirteen Mets he saw in order.

For most of the game, Dillon Gee's performance represented a marked improvement over his last two starts. Through six innings, the only runs he allowed were on two solo homers by Jimmy Rollins and Grady Sizemore. In the seventh, however, he left the game having loaded the bases with one out. Josh Edgin then came in to face Chase Utley, who promptly hit a grand slam to put the game out of reach for the Mets.

GameThread Roll Call

Nice job by MetsFan4Decades; her effort in the GameThread embiggens us all.

Let's all thank Josh Edgin for serving up that Chase Utley grand slam, which is one of the greatest things a human being can see with their eyes.

While packing for a trip earlier today, I found my Phillies tiara, which I thought I'd lost. Tonight, I am wearing that tiara while recapping this game for you. That's what this game deserves -- my very favorite piece of game attire, a ridiculous dress-up tiara meant for children.

Tonight's game was all Phillies. If the Phils hadn't needed someone to swing the bat against, the Mets could have taken the night off. (All things considered, perhaps they did.) Jimmy Rollins was the first to cause trouble for Dillon Gee, hitting his 14th homer of the year off of Gee in the third inning. Grady Sizemore hit his own solo shot in the fourth inning, his first as Phillie. The score was 2-0 until the seventh inning, when Gee was replaced by Josh Edgin after loading the bases. Then Chase Utley came up, and it was all over. He hit a monster grand slam off of Edgin, causing women to faint all over the greater Philadelphia area, and in fact the world.

The offense was great, but in reality this game was all Cole Hamels. He is pitching phenomenally right now, dominating the Mets over eight shutout innings. Dominating. They did have six hits against him, but no one made it past second base all night. Hamels also struck out eight and walked zero. He was just fabulous tonight, as he's been recently. Watching him pitch so well now, nearly six years after he was World Series MVP, makes me indescribably happy. Hamels is the real thing, and he's OUR thing.

If you're wondering where the rest of Mets are in all of this, don't. They mustered so little against Cole Hamels that the Mets broadcast booth spent the majority of the game loving on Hamels himself. They complimented his pitching style, his mental toughness, his ability to bounce back, his bunting ability, his athleticism, and probably more, but it was hard to keep track since they were seriously talking about him that much. They seemed genuinely thrilled that Hamels was pitching so well at Citi Field, something he hasn't done consistently in his career.

Cole Hamels: Mets broadcaster approved. Get on board, world.

Source: FanGraphs

The Mets lost 6-0 as Dillon Gee and Josh Edgin give up three homers, the last of which was a Chase Utley grand slam.

In their 7-1 win on Monday night, the Mets seemed to put their recent offensive woes behind them. Furthermore, what better way to solidify that forward movement for the Mets than by facing Cole Hamels?

Going into Tuesday night, Hamels was 7-14 lifetime against the Mets. David Wright and Daniel Murphy were hitting a career .329 and .386, respectively, against him. Over the last three seasons, Hamels's ERA versus the Amazins was an absolutely delicious 5.06. Simply put: it should have been feast time for the Mets offense.

Sadly, though, Hamels brought only famine and desolation, striking out eight over eight shutout innings and helping the Phillies even the series tonight with a 6-0 win. There was much talk going into the game of Hamels being a likely trade candidate for the struggling Phillies. The Mets, ever generous, clearly upped his value in the contest at Citi Field tonight.

To be fair, the final score does not reflect the true performance of Mets starter Dillon Gee. After an abysmal start in Milwaukee last week in which he gave up six runs, this start represented a partial return to form for the Mets righty. The only hiccups he experienced over the first six innings came in the form of two solo home runs. The first was on a gift-wrapped fastball to Jimmy Rollins that the Phillies shortstop—and perpetual irritant—smacked into the right field seats to put the Phillies up 1-0 in the third. The second came off the bat of Grady Sizemore, who, after fouling off three straight pitches, blasted a slider off the right field foul pole. Nevertheless, though he only struck out two, Gee certainly gave the Mets a chance to win.

Unfortunately for him, the Mets could not get anything going against Hamels. Though they recorded at least one hit in the first four innings, Hamels allowed only two runners to get to second base the whole game. In the first inning, with Eric Campbell at first and Curtis Granderson at second, he struck out Chris Young to end the potential threat. Then in the fourth, after David Wright hustled out a double, Hamels set down Campbell on three pitches to strand the Captain. Though he allowed an infield hit to Wilmer Flores with two outs in the fourth, Hamels retired the next thirteen Mets he saw without breaking a sweat.

And if the Amazins' utter ineptitude at the plate wasn't depressing enough; Mets fans had to endure the top of the seventh inning, which was just a slow crawl towards despair. Dominic Brown singled to right to lead off the inning. After Cody Asche flew out, Hamels laid down a bunt to sacrifice Brown over to second with two outs. Gee then hit Ben Revere with a fastball, and the next pitch he threw (to Jimmy Rollins) went all the way to the backstop to advance the runners to second and third. Gee then walked Rollins to load the bases. Possibly sensing things were starting to fall apart, Terry decided to call in Josh Edgin from the bullpen to record the final out against Chase Utley. The left-hander promptly threw a fastball that Utley smashed to put the Phillies up 6-0 and stick Gee with an extra three earned runs for his stat line. Ryan Howard mercifully followed with a ground out to second, perhaps sensing the Mets had had enough.

In spite of Buddy Carlyle coming in in the eighth and holding the Phillies at six for the final two innings; the Mets went down in order against Hamels in both the seventh and eighth. After Ryne Sandberg brought in Ken Giles to pitch the ninth, Eric Campbell registered a one out single to give the Mets their first hit since the fourth inning. Keeping with the pattern of the night though, pinch hitter Bobby Abreu grounded out to first, and Travis d'Arnaud flew out to Grady Sizemore to end the game.

Tomorrow, the Mets hope Zack Wheeler will lead them back to victory as they attempt take the series from the Phillies. Game time is 12:10 EDT.

SB Nation GameThreads

* Amazin' Avenue GameThread
* The Good Phight GameThread

Win Probability Added

(What's this?)

Big winners: Curtis Granderson, 6.5; Buddy Carlyle, 0.1
Big losers: Daniel Murphy, -13.6; Josh Edgin -12.8
Teh aw3s0mest play: Curtis Granderson single, bottom of the third
Teh sux0rest play: Jimmy Rollins home run, top of the third
Total pitcher WPA: -16.5
Total batter WPA: -33.5
GWRBI!: Jimmy Rollins home run, top of the third

Despite accusations by some of Glavotage, Tom Glavine had a pretty nice run in New York.

March 31, 2003, Shea sold out. Tens of thousands of fans paid whatever they had to, played hooky from wherever they were supposed to be that day just to see the start of another new era: Tom Glavine pitching for the first time as a New York Met. After 16 seasons and countless accolades in Atlanta—two Cy Young Awards, eight All-Star berths, not to mention a World Series MVP—who could have blamed the Shea faithful for being kind of geeked that unseasonable, cold afternoon? And then, after a long winter of waiting, the game and season finally got underway—and, a half inning later, in a flash seemed over. Just like that, it was 4–0 Cubs. The prize of the offseason got booed off the mound, didn’t even last four innings. Then some reliever named Mike Bacsik, who’d arrived with Roberto Alomar from Cleveland, gave up nine more runs. 15–2 was the final: the biggest blowout on Opening Day in half a century. The game-time temperature was 39 degrees, winds gusted 20 mph. Trust me, I was there. It was all bad.

The year before, the team had finished last. Half a starting lineup worth of big-name acquisitions—Roberto Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jeromy Burnitz II, Roger Cedeño II—had failed to meet expectations. And now this latest hired gun, who’d already logged 3,000 innings on his aging left arm, who’d just turned 37 and only came to town after the Braves refused to guarantee him a third year—we were so ready to write him off as well. At four years and $42.5 million, it seemed the Mets had been outfoxed, or tomahawk chopped, again.

Glavine’s first start as a member of the Mets was surely just another of the franchise’s well-publicized false starts. He finished the season 9–13 with a 4.52 ERA; the Mets came in last, again.

The following year, however, the ace pitched closer to form, earning an All-Star selection despite having no luck in run support. Then further misfortune famously struck—literally, his taxi was hit while leaving LaGuardia. Glavine lost two teeth in the collision. Laid up in the ambulance, then in NYU Medical Center, you know he must’ve wished he’d inked a four-year deal anyplace else but Queens. There were stitches and replacement teeth but no DL stint; he’d never done that before. The Mets finished the season second to last, only beating out Montreal in its final year of existence. Atlanta won the division handily, again.

In 2005, things began to turn. Both pitcher and team put up pretty solid seasons. That’s the year Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran arrived in Queens; David Wright and Jose Reyes, meanwhile, came into their own. Glavine finished the season 13–13 with a 3.53 ERA. The Braves won the division again, and the Mets finished fourth again, but over .500 at least.

The 2006 season, obviously, needs no introduction; some people might not remember, though, that Glavine was selected to his tenth and final All-Star game, finishing the year 15–7 on a team that won 97 games. It was without doubt a magical year, despite Pedro winning all of nine games and—along with Orlando Hernandez—missing the entire playoffs due to injury.

In 17 post-season innings, Glavine was 2–1 with a 1.59 ERA.

After the 2006 season, Glavine was a 40-year-old free agent and just 10 wins shy of 300. It would have been understood if he had circled back to Atlanta, returned home, but instead the old vet opted to pitch another season in Queens.

It’s a strain on my family for me to be in New York, and it’s tough to be away from my family during the season.

. . .

I’m sure at some point in time the Braves would have made an offer, but I told the Mets I would have a decision before the winter meetings and I stayed true to my word. But the Mets never pressured me to make a decision. They were very respectful to me.

He won his 300th on August 5, 2007 in Wrigley Field. It’s very possible that we’ll never see, in our lifetime, another pitcher reach that milestone in a Mets uniform.

What most people remember about that season, however, is Glavine’s final start as a Met. September 30, 2007 was every bit as painful as March 31, 2003—and then some. Glavine retired exactly one batter in surrendering seven earned runs. The Mets went on to lose 8–1 and miss out on the playoffs, completing an epic September collapse.

Mets fans were not in a forgiving mood after that game, understandably so, and Glavine did the right thing in declining, at age 41, his $13 million player option.

Instead he signed a one-year deal with the Braves, and went on to win two more games in his professional career. In hindsight, can we really blame a 41-year-old pitcher clearly at the end of the line for what happened in Game 162 of 2007, or is it more the fault of the team for not having a younger, stronger stopper?

The following year you subtract Tom Glavine from that roster, and add indisputably one of the game’s best pitchers, Johan Santana, and what’s the result? A similar meltdown ensues.

In fact, compare Glavine and Santana’s Mets numbers, both on the diamond and payroll. It’s fairly clear which pitcher gave the organization and fans a better return. And while you’re at it, repeat that exercise with a real fan favorite: Pedro Martinez.

Glavine finished his Mets career 61–56 with a 3.97 ERA. Not outstanding, especially by his standards, but not too bad in a hitter’s era. His 1005 innings pitched, 164 starts, and 61 wins are each 11th best in team history. For a franchise that prides itself on a tradition of pitching excellence, those stats—all accrued after the pitcher’s 37th birthday—are somewhat surprising when compared to other players who spent their prime in Queens.

Only three southpaws in baseball history have won more games. Maybe we have forgotten, but there was still greatness in number 47, even past his prime.

Glavine was never "Tom Terrific," at least not for us. He never put up a season here as good as Pedro’s best, never threw a no-hitter like Santana. He didn’t have Gooden’s fastball, Seaver’s slider or Pedro’s changeup, but I’m sure a lot of kids out there learned just as much about the game when 47, a true artist, took the mound every fifth day. He was a quiet pillar of a team that went from laughingstock to toast of the town in a four-year span.

Perhaps most of all, he got off to a rocky start in this town but stuck with its tough fans, earning his keep unlike so many other high-priced busts we’ve seen around here.

Yesterday, during his Hall of Fame induction, Glavine made a point of thanking the Mets organization and its fans alongside their Atlanta counterparts. He thanked the Braves trainers, and then Mike Herbst of the Mets. He thanked Atlanta’s legendary pitching coach, Leo Mazzone, and then Rick Peterson of the Mets.

To all the folks associated with the Mets organization, thank you for treating me and my family the way you did. Thank you Fred and Jeff Wilpon for the opportunity to play in New York and for providing the resources so I could experience a post season there. To the fans of New York, thank you so much for your support and ultimately for treating me and my family with so much respect.

For a fan base that feels eternally disrespected, this is the last person to hold a grudge against.

You’d think the team could have at least tweeted a congratulatory message to the Hall of Famer who started four Opening Days and made two All-Star appearances in orange and blue.

Just because you don’t separate on the best of terms, doesn’t mean it wasn’t real while the relationship lasted.

Despite slow starts to the season, there was reason to believe both players would turn it around.

Over the course of a 162-game season, baseball players fall in and out of slumps. After slow starts this year, Zack Wheeler and Lucas Duda are currently playing as well as anyone at their respective positions, and the numbers saw it coming. Both players were catching a bit of flak earlier this season. Wheeler was compared to Matt Harvey and Duda to Ike Davis, who the team traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates in April.

Mark Simon wrote an excellent piece this morning detailing some of the underlying numbers that indicated Wheeler and Duda were due for an increase in productivity.

When Wheeler was going bad, we noted three issues hindering his performance -- the Mets' inability to get outs when he induced a groundball, his struggles against left-handed hitters, and his performance when the opponent had runners in scoring position…

Wheeler has also bettered his strikeout-to-walk rate, going from a pitcher with a 2:1 ratio to one with a 3:1 ratio. He has 68 strikeouts and 22 walks over his last 11 starts. In turn, the numbers have balanced themselves out. Wheeler’s 3.64 ERA and 3.47 FIP on the season are now a near-match.

A couple of things have happened for Duda of late. Most notably, his line drive rate has soared, while his groundball rate has declined. The fly balls have soared, too. Duda has made the most of venues friendlier than Citi Field, with seven of his last ten homers coming on the road. He also has found success in Flushing, though, with eight doubles in his last 48 at-bats there. Meanwhile, his rate of hitting the ball hard has stayed consistent. In fact, his 24 percent rate in 2014 matches that of Troy Tulowitzki for best in the National League.

It’s been very encouraging seeing these two players turn around their games, especially given how they’ve done it. Wheeler has avoided the "big" hit and has made 10 starts in which he has gone at least six innings while allowing only one run. Duda has been pouring it on as of late with four home runs in the last seven games while being much more aggressive at the plate this season.

Of course, Simon reminds us that the underlying stats have a way of evening themselves out. The current play of both players is sure to cool off a bit, but it will more likely be a balance of what we’ve seen as a total this season.

He's leading the team in many offensive categories, but that doesn't mean the Mets shouldn't trade him.

Daniel Murphy has been one of the few bright spots on some bad Met teams the last couple of years. Through a great deal of hard work, Murphy has become a solid second baseman, and his hard-nosed approach to the game has earned him a place in the hearts of many Met fans. While all this is understandable, I feel that some have lost sight of what Murphy really is, instead spouting off hogwash about how we can’t lose a hitter who "knows how to hit at Citi" whilst lobbying for an extension. Yet if we look objectively at what Murphy is and what he will give us in terms of production, a trade looks more and more appealing.

We all know what Murphy gives you defensively at second base. He’ll make some spectacular plays one day, leave you scratching your head the next, and in general, show mediocre range. All of this adds up to below-average marks from both UZR (career -6.0 UZR/150) and DRS (career -11 Rdrs/yr). These values will likely decline as he ages, but it’s not outlandish to believe that Murphy can be at least passable at second base for the next three to four years. Just don’t expect any additional value in this department. Murphy’s defensive limitations ultimately mean his value with his bat will have to supply the majority of his overall value.

To project Murphy’s offensive contributions, let’s look at some similar players. Baseball Reference offers a great tool providing comparable players based on offensive statistics. The table below shows eight of the 10 most comparable hitters to Daniel Murphy through his age-28 season. I’ve removed numbers four (Bill Barrett) and five (Billy Werber) as they both played in the early 20th century, a completely different era of baseball. The average is weighted by PAs (not shown due to space).

Murphy’s numbers are remarkably similar. Through age 28, he’s within two points of the average wRC+, and his age-29 season is within 3 points. Two data points hardly indicate a direct correlation, but the subsequent production for the field of comparable players is probably a decent projection for Murphy going forward.

Interestingly enough, these values are very similar to the Oliver projections for Murphy. Oliver predicts a 102 wRC+ for Murphy next year before he dips below 100 and posts marks of 97, 95, and 92 for his age-31 to age-33 seasons. I don’t love Oliver projections, but in this case they do compare favorably to the actual production of players similar to Murphy. In total, both systems predict that Murphy will be a league-average hitter next year before declining to below-average levels as he moves into his 30s.

These data tell us that Murphy is not going to be an above-average hitter relative to the rest of the league. Of course, Murphy plays second base, so perhaps this lesser version of Murphy would still be an asset. Alas, this does not appear to be the case. Using Oliver as a WAR calculator, Murphy projects to be worth slightly less than 2 wins next season with a very favorable defensive score of –0.7. Given that Murphy’s career-high defensive mark is –0.3 this season in a small sample, which is far better than his career mark, expecting a –0.7 defensive value until Murphy’s age-33 season is not realistic. With this in mind, Murphy projects more as a 1-win player by the time he’s 31, if not sooner.

However, these projections are dealing with the future, and right now Murphy is on pace for a 3.0–3.5 WAR season at second base with a 112 wRC+ (that number incorporating his most recent slump). Murphy’s left-handed bat could very easily be an asset for a contending team with a hole at second base or third base, and there seem to be plenty of potential suitors for his services; the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Giants all are getting bad performances from their current second basemen. Though reported interest has been limited to date, things could very easily heat up as we come down to the trading deadline. Murphy’s value is as high as it’s ever going to be, and there is an appreciable market for his services—there probably will never be a better time to trade Murphy.

This has all been without any mention of the Mets' organizational depth at second base. I am not a fan of Wilmer Flores—his high-contact, weak-swing approach warps his numbers in Vegas even more than the average hitter. However, he clearly gains little to nothing from remaining in Triple-A any further, and as one of the better prospects in our system, he needs to get a shot at the major league level. With Tejeda playing a (barely) passable shortstop, Flores offers an immediate replacement if Murphy is traded. Matt Reynolds is another short-term option, though he has cooled off in Vegas after a hot start. He projects more as a utility infielder, but giving him a chance to hold down a starting job is probably worthwhile.

Lower in the system, Dilson Herrera has been tearing it up. Even with the obvious BABIP and small sample size caveats, his Double-A numbers are beyond impressive. Hitting .344/.405/.542 with 4 HR and 6 SB in 148 PA, good for a 160 wRC+, Herrera’s stats make him one of the best players in the Eastern League at the tender age of 20, and he certainly looks the part of a future fixture at second base.

Given that Murphy’s value is at a peak and that the Mets have several cost-controlled, MLB-ready replacements with arguably greater upside, extending Murphy would seem a mistake. Murphy probably commands a 3-4 year deal at $30-40 million this offseason, his own comments about taking less money notwithstanding. With the limited financial resources the Mets have at the moment and our wealth of talent at second base, giving a complementary player like Murphy that kind of money for the decline phase of his career is certainly not worth it.

It’s time to trade Daniel Murphy.

The Mets will have to wait until the winter to engage the Rockies in serious discussions for either of their star hitters.

If the Mets are serious about prying Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez away from the Rockies, they'll have at least another few months to assemble a worthy offer.

The hot stove has heated up with whispers about the Mets' interest in both sluggers ever since the New York Post's Joel Sherman broke the story open. It appears, however, that he teased fans with visions of an upgraded offense too soon. According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, both sides will likely press pause on trade negotiations until the offseason.

The Rockies and Mets haven't gotten off the ground on talk about Colorado superstars Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, so any chance to do a deal will likely have to wait for the winter.

"Unless we do speed dating, I think that's safe to say [that any deal will wait until winter]," one person involved in the limited talks said.

This scoop shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Five games under .500 before Wednesday afternoon's bout against the Phillies, New York has little reason to force the issue, especially with Tulowitzki on the disabled list.

Heyman, however, concludes the article with a more telling tidbit. Although Gonzalez has become the forgotten man with fans harboring grand visions of the Mets landing baseball's premier shortstop, he's the more realistic target.

Ultimately, the Mets don't see themselves as likely to land Tulowitzki -- "he wants to be a Yankee" one Mets person said, stating what has becoming obvious -- so Gonzalez will presumably be the main focus of talks once they hook up.

Following a sensational 2013 campaign, the 28-year-old outfielder is hitting a robust .242/.294/.432 with a minus-0.1 fWAR, per FanGraphs. He's logged more than 135 games in a season just once and sports a career .755 OPS away from Coors Field.

Yet all those blemishes will make him a much cheaper alternative to Tulowitzki, who is by far the best talent at a scarce position when healthy. Sandy Alderson will also appreciate Gonzalez's shorter contract, which expires after 2017.

When the deadline passes without any blockbuster trades, don't assume the opportunity has passed to strike a deal with Colorado. Once winter comes, this saga will pick up right where it left off.

The trade deadline is tomorrow, but the Mets don't have too many irons in the fire.

With the trade deadline fast approaching, the Mets are in an interesting position where they could theoretically still be buyers and sellers. Sandy Alderson has recently said that the team may end up staying as is by tomorrow afternoon, but the deadline has a way of quickening the speed of deals.

Adam Rubin reports that no talks are beyond the early stages, but that there may be a deal the Mets are seeking that could be of interest to fans.

There is one "intriguing" scenario in which the Mets could acquire an outfielder who would remain under control at least through 2015. But the source suggested that is even less likely to materialize than trading [Bartolo] Colon. The source said it was too sensitive, and probably premature, to identify the player or team right now.

Things are quiet on the Mets front for now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll stay that way. The next 27 hours may well be interesting and it would hardly come as a surprise to hear a bit more noise surrounding the Mets as the trade deadline draws closer.

Even if tomorrow’s deadline passes without a deal for the Mets, they could still broker a trade in August. Alderson took advantage of the August 31 waiver trade deadline last season, sending Marlon Byrd and John Buck to the Pirateson August 27, netting Dilson Herrera and Vic Black in return.

Don’t be shocked if he tries to do the same sort of thing this year.

The manager believes tomorrow's trade deadline will pass without his club making any moves.

Manager Terry Collins joined Sandy Alderson's quest to quell fans' expectations by reiterating the Mets' likeliness of standing pat. Shortly after Alderson predicted nothing will happen before Thursday's trade deadline, Collins took a similar stance when speaking to MLB.com's Anthony DiComo.

Two days after general manager Sandy Alderson said the Mets are "unlikely" to make any moves prior to the Deadline, Collins said he plans to continue focusing on "who we have and what we have" -- and nothing else.

"Right now, I'm not caught up in it," Collins said Wednesday afternoon. "I'm really not. I look at our team, our clubhouse, I'm going to see a lot of similar faces when we come in here on Friday. I don't see a lot of movement. I'm not caught up in anything."

Earlier today, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported that any blockbuster for the Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez will "likely have to wait for the winter." Since the Mets aren't buying, the onus turns to which established players they may sell.

The two biggest names in question are Daniel Murphy and Bartolo Colon. While the All-Star second baseman has become too important to their offense, the 41-year-old starting pitcher could fall from favor if their young surplus of arms pan out and remain healthy.

As a manager for an underwhelming New York team, Collins of course prefers a major leaguer who delivers immediate production. But for Alderson to echo those thoughts about maintaining the status quo, the market interest in Colon must be microscopic.

In terms of trading, the Mets currently find themselves in no man's land. Although they're not a realistic contender this season, they also have enough pieces to think about a 2015 push. For that reason, we'd be wise to heed Collins' premonition of a quiet trade deadline.

The Mets put up eleven runs and fifteen hits en route to a comfortable victory.

It was a good game to go to today, as the Mets defeated the Phillies by a score of 11-2 and took care of business in winning their first home series after the All-Star break. Zack Wheeler did not have his best stuff by any stretch of the imagination but was able to deliver a quality start by giving up just two runs in six-and-two-thirds innings. But the story today was the Mets' offense, which came to life this afternoon and erupted for eleven runs.

Kyle Kendrick was tagged for four runs in the fifth inning with the crushing blow coming off the bat of Daniel Murphy in the form of a three run homer. After that the Mets got to work on the Phillies' bullpen with a five runs in the seventh and two more in the eighth. Lucas Duda had another monster game with a home run and three runs batted in, and David Wright was the only starting position player not to register a hit on the day.

Tomorrow is trade deadline day, and the Mets are idle before welcoming the San Francisco Giants on Friday for a four game set.

GameThread Roll Call

Nice job by amazins8669; his effort in the GameThread embiggens us all.

The Mets destroyed the Phillies Wednesday afternoon with a barrage of runs.

Amidst the usual flurry of trade rumors on the eve of the trade deadline, there was a rubber game to be played, and the Mets crushed the Phillies 11-2 to take the three-game series. It was a welcome surprise to see the Mets score double-digit runs today and it was the most they have scored at home all season long. The ball club bounced back nicely after being shut out last night and will head into tomorrow's off day on a positive note.

Zack Wheeler and Kyle Kendrick have been on completely opposite trajectories over this past month and the advantage, at least on paper, seemed to be heavily in favor of the Mets before a pitch was ever thrown this afternoon. Wheeler, owner of a 1.41 ERA over his last five starts, entered today looking to continue to build on his solid sophomore campaign. Kendrick, owner of an 8.59 ERA over his last four starts, was hoping to turn things around lest he be at risk of a demotion. With the scene set, the Mets went on to obliterate the Phillies.

Wheeler, despite his reasonably tidy final line, did not possess his best stuff today. He was wild early and often and seemed to have little idea where his pitches were going to end up. However, he was able to get out of jams and induce weakly hit fly balls for most of the afternoon. As we are all slowly starting to accept the fact that the Mets are probably about to embark on yet another August and September of not-so-meaningful baseball, joy must be taken in the small things. Wheeler's maturation process is one such small thing, and it is continuing before our very eyes, as he was able to put up zeros with some of the worst stuff he's had all year. Instead of overthrowing and walking the world, as he has been prone to do in starts when he was not able to locate his pitches, he buckled down and allowed just two runs over six and two thirds innings.

Both teams scattered hits and left ducks on the pond throughout the first four innings. There was very little offensive action from the Mets until the fourth inning, when Ben Revere made an excellent leaping catch over the center field wall to rob Lucas Duda of a home run. The game had the sleepy and lethargic look of a day game following a night game in the early going before the runs started flowing in the fifth.

After an RBI double by Ryan Howard scored the speedy Ben Revere to open up the Phillies' account in the top of the fifth, the Mets promptly responded, and finally got to Kendrick in the bottom half of the inning by putting up a crooked number on the scoreboard.

Juan Lagares led off with an infield single and Ruben Tejada followed with a seeing-eye single that just got by a diving Andres Blanco to put runners on first and second. This gave Wheeler the opportunity to lay down a sacrifice bunt, and he successfully did so on his third and final attempt. With two runners in scoring position and first base open, Kendrick elected to pitch around Curtis Granderson and walked him on five pitches as Granderson did not bother to move his bat from his shoulder.

With the bases loaded, Kendrick lost his nerve and threw a wild pitch on his first offering to Daniel Murphy, allowing Lagares to score as well as advancing both Tejada and Granderson. Whether they advanced or not mattered little, as Murphy hit a three-run opposite-field home run to punctuate a four-run inning. It was his first opposite-field home run of the year and he put a terrific swing on a ball that was on the outside part of the plate. He went with what the pitcher gave him, as he so often does, but not often is he able to power those pitches over the left field wall into the Party City Deck. The Mets closed out the fifth inning up 4-1.

Wheeler threw his first 1-2-3 inning of the day in the sixth and was rewarded by being allowed to trot back out and attempt to get through the seventh with his pitch count just south of 100. Jimmy Rollins came up to pinch hit for Kendrick and promptly pulled a solo shot to right field to give the Phillies their second run of the day. After a meeting on the mound, Wheeler got the next two righties, Revere and Grady Sizemore, to both fly out. With the left-handed Chase Utley up next, Terry Collins chose to take the ball from Wheeler and hand it to Dana Eveland to face the lefty with two outs.

Eveland was truly atrocious, and would have been troubled to hit the broad side of a barn door. He walked Utley and then hit Howard on the right arm, failing to get just one out with two left-handed batters up in succession. Jeurys Familia came in to mop up Eveland's mess and got Marlon Byrd to ground out to end the threat and preserve the two-run lead.

The Mets were not nearly done, though, and batted around with a five-run seventh as the Phillies' bullpen took it on the collar. Lucas Duda had an RBI single, Travis d'Arnaud hit an RBI double, Chris Young got an RBI after reaching on an error, Tejada hit an RBI single, and even Familia got in on the party with an RBI single, putting his batting average at 1.000 on the year. After the five runs were recorded and the dust settled—as if that wasn't enough—Lucas Duda continued the onslaught and torched a two-run homer in the eighth inning.

With eleven runs up on the board, the Phillies did not have a rally in them, but instead took their spanking and went into the clubhouse to lick their wounds.

A couple of quick notes on today's win. Lagares had three more hits today and looks like he is over his mini-slump from the road trip. Let us all hope he keeps this up, because one hitless game is all it takes for Terry Collins to give him a "mental" day off and omit his name from the lineup card.

Chris Young finished up this series 1-12 and, in a clear last-ditch effort to drum up some trade value in him, the Mets have given him fairly regular starts since the Seattle series. If Sandy Alderson is able to pull a rabbit out of a hat and deal him for more than a bag of balls, that would be grand, but in the likelihood that he is unable to find said rabbit, Young has not earned the right to be anything more than a pinch hitter with this club.

Lastly, but most importantly, it is starting to get difficult to find new superlatives to laud at Lucas Duda. He is simply becoming that force in the middle of the lineup that we have dreamed of, and he truly appears to be meeting his potential right now. He's crushing the ball and has already established season career highs in both home runs and runs batted in. As frustrating as his roller coaster ride to this point has been, credit must be given—taking into account the cautionary disclaimer of small sample sizes—to Sandy Alderson and his staff, for they seemed to get this one right and dealt away the correct first baseman this past spring.

All in all it was a great win today and, as always, lets go Mets.

SB Nation GameThreads

* Amazin' Avenue GameThread
* The Good Phight GameThread

Win Probability Added

(What's this?)

Big winners: Juan Lagares, 21.7; Daniel Murphy, 20.6
Big losers: Dana Eveland, -5.6; David Wright, -3.8
Teh aw3s0mest play: Daniel Murphy 3-run home run, fifth inning
Teh sux0rest play: Ryan Howard RBI double, fifth inning
Total pitcher WPA: 10.5
Total batter WPA: 39.5
GWRBI!: Daniel Murphy home run, fifth inning

The 41-year-old starting pitcher seemingly hasn't drawn interest on the trade market.

With the trade deadline less than twenty-four hours away, it sounds like Bartolo Colon won't be traded away by the Mets. While the team is willing to listen to offers, there hasn't been a ton of interest in him, per Marc Carig of Newsday.

The 41-year-old right-handed pitcher has been effective for the Mets in 21 starts this year. He has a 3.88 ERA and 3.41 FIP in 141.2 innings of work. He's striking out batters at a higher rate and walking them at a lower rate than he did over the past two years, which he spent with the Oakland Athletics.

Colon is signed through next season, during which he's due to earn $11 million. It would make plenty of sense for the Mets to deal Colon for a good return, but if he stays, he should continue to be a pleasure to watch with the Mets.

The 25-year-old pitcher has permission to ramp up his rehab.

Eleven months after his last start in the big leagues, Matt Harvey will soon throw off a mound as he continues to rehab his arm following Tommy John surgery. Marc Carig of Newsday says it could be as soon as Friday:

Harvey has been cleared to throw off a mound for awhile, a source said. Mets finally allowing him to do so. Scheduled tentatively for Friday

— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) July 30, 2014

For a team that saw its ace undergo Tommy John surgery last October, the Mets' pitching staff is in pretty good shape. Zack Wheeler is progressing nicely, while Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese have become steady veteran presences that can keep the Mets competitive whenever they take the hill. The club even has another main attraction in Jacob deGrom.

Still, the staff would be so much better with Matt Harvey in it. The young right-hander exploded onto the scene in 2013 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 178.1 innings pitched. However, Mets fans haven't seen Harvey pitch since last August 24. After a quality start against the Tigers, Harvey felt some discomfort in his elbow and decided to get it checked out in an MRI exam. The test showed a torn UCL that eventually led Harvey to opt for surgery on October 22.