Rockies sign LaTroy Hawkins, get suckered by saves

A pitcher who pretty much defines "just a guy" is now the Rockies' closer.

With the news that the Rockies are about to sign LaTroy Hawkins to a one-year deal to serve as their closer, the veteran right-hander is one moderately healthy season away from becoming just the 16^th pitcher to have a 1,000-game career.

Hawkins is probably the least-distinguished, least likely pitcher to be in a position to surpass the 1,000-game threshold. Many relievers began as busted starters, but few failed as hard as Hawkins did, putting up a 6.11 ERA in 98 career starts. For pitchers with at least 500 innings as a starter, that is merely the second-worst ERA in history:

Rk	Player	From	To	ERA	W	L	GS	IP	H	BB	SO
1	Todd Van Poppel	1991	2004	6.31	25	37	98	516	551	282	336
2	LaTroy Hawkins	1995	1999	6.11	26	44	98	518.1	675	186	298
3	Les Sweetland	1927	1931	5.96	29	51	96	607	816	278	127
4	Claude Willoughby	1925	1931	5.81	30	49	101	590.2	781	279	137
5	Roxie Lawson	1930	1940	5.80	29	32	83	507	606	300	165
6	Rob Bell	2000	2005	5.76	28	34	108	594	631	252	376
7	Kevin Jarvis	1994	2006	5.69	33	45	118	656.1	767	204	379
8	Casey Fossum	2001	2007	5.65	29	47	120	636.2	716	256	483
9	Bryan Rekar	1995	2002	5.61	23	47	108	607.2	734	184	351
10	Scott Elarton	1998	2007	5.56	49	57	170	965	1038	376	592

Notice that none of those guys went on to big career second acts as a reliever or a knuckleballer or a really witty after-dinner speaker. Hawkins is the only one. As a reliever he has compiled a 3.32 ERA in 856 innings, which is -- I'll spare you the table on this one -- not bad, but it's not great either. Hawkins is 57^th on the list of relievers with 800 or more innings pitched. Said list begins with Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, and Hoyt Wilhelm, three pitchers who are (or should be) Hall of Famers. ERA isn't the best measure of effectiveness for relievers, of course, so we could go to something like WAR, which would show him in about the same place among career relievers. Basically, Hawkins hasn't been notably good, but he's pitched just well enough at key moments that he's been allowed to continue his career despite his general just-okayness.

Purple Row reviews the Rockies' bullpen

Hawkins finished the 2013 season with 943 career games, meaning if he makes 57 appearances with the Rockies he'll crash 1,000 games. Listing the other guys at the 1,000-game reunion party alongside Hawkins is like playing a game of "Which one doesn't belong:"

Player	G	From	To	SV	ERA	ERA+	WAR	WHO
Jesse Orosco	1252	1979	2003	144	3.16	126	22.9	Closer and postseason hero for the 1986 Mets, spot reliever for 100 years after that.
Mike Stanton	1178	1989	2007	84	3.92	112	13.8	Longtime setup man with a 53-game record of postseason excellence.
John Franco	1119	1984	2005	424	2.89	138	23.7	Longtime closer holds the record for saves by a southpaw.
Mariano Rivera	1115	1995	2013	652	2.21	205	56.6	Oh, you know.
Dennis Eckersley	1071	1975	1998	390	3.5	116	62.5	Had two great careers as a starter and a reliever.
Hoyt Wilhelm	1070	1952	1972	227	2.52	147	50.1	Pioneering fireman won an ERA title as a starter, pitched until he was 49.
Dan Plesac	1064	1986	2003	158	3.64	117	17.1	Left-hander and sometime closer who extended his career by pitching in spot relief.
Mike Timlin	1058	1991	2008	141	3.63	125	19.2	Sometime closer and longtime setup man pitched on four winning World Series teams.
Kent Tekulve	1050	1974	1989	184	2.85	132	26.2	Sidewinding closer for the great Pirates teams of the 1970s.
Trevor Hoffman	1035	1993	2010	601	2.87	141	28.0	The career saves leader before Mariano.
Jose Mesa	1022	1987	2007	321	4.36	100	11.7	The closest pitcher to Hawkins on the list, Joe Table was a busted starter who saved over 40 games four times.
Lee Smith	1022	1980	1997	478	3.03	132	29.4	Held the career saves record for 13 years before giving way to Hoffman.
Roberto Hernandez	1010	1991	2007	326	3.45	131	18.5	Survived life-threatening blood clots early in his career to establish himself at 27, pitched into his 40s.
Michael Jackson	1005	1986	2004	142	3.42	126	18.8	An early attempt at closing didn't take, but went back to setting up and later conquered the ninth inning.
Rich Gossage	1002	1972	1994	310	3.01	126	41.8	Fireballing stopper of the 1970s.
Four guys who conked out in the 900s.
LaTroy Hawkins	943	1995	2013	101	4.37	105	16.3	He's... LaTroy Hawkins.

What this really suggests is not that Hawkins somehow doesn't deserve to keep pitching, but that the Rockies are really overthinking things. Rex Brothers has the weak command that is typical of a hard-throwing young lefty and he had some struggles as the season wound down, but he still struck out a more than a man per inning while converting 19 of 21 save opportunities. Hawkins whiffed 7.0 batters per nine innings last year. It was his best rate since 2008 and not only might it not hold up, it was well below-average for a major-league reliever, who had an average of 8.3 strikeouts per nine. In the age of the humidor Coors Field no longer plays like a bandbox on the moon, but it's still a hitter-friendly park with a big outfield. Putting a relatively low-strikeout reliever in that park in key situations seems like an idea that's likely to backfire, particularly if ol' LaTroy regresses to a lower strikeout rate, which for him could be anywhere between four and six per nine.

Worse, designating Hawkins the closer might encourage manager Walt Weiss to use Brothers more situationally, holding him out of innings that don't feature a predominance of left-handed hitters. This would further reduce his impact and drop more innings on relievers that aren't as good as he is.

Bottom line, this is the kind of move that mediocre teams make, signing a 40-year-old off of a 13-save season for a second-division team and bestowing an important role upon him. Chances are Brothers will have the closer's role back by the All-Star break and Hawkins, 1,000 games or not, will be pitching lower leverage innings. Without those saves appended to his line, Hawkins' season would be just one of dozens of half-decent seasons put together by right-handed relievers in 2013. Count general manager Dan O'Dowd among the beguiled.