Ranking and tiering the two-start pitchers for Week 10, including Jaime Garcia, Bartolo Colon and Jake Arrieta.
I hope you were all over Josh Beckett's no-hitter last Sunday. I recommended Beckett in my weekly two-starter piece, and I'm happy to share this historic moment with the veteran right-hander. A small group of baseball enthusiasts years from now will remember it as Beckett's first career no-no, but the majority of you will remember it as the game with the pitcher that the fantasy baseball dude told you to start.
This week, I guarantee two no-hitters OR one perfect game. (Don't hold me to that.)
Results (through 1/2 of Week 9)
23-12 (58 starts)
7.11 K/9
2.34 BB/9
3.29 ERA
1.06 WHIP
Start!
Clayton Kershaw: Mon-CWS (Sale), Sun-@COL (De La Rosa)Chris Sale: Mon-@LAD (Kershaw), Sun-@LAA (Wilson)
Felix Hernandez: Mon-@NYY (Phelps), Sun-@TB (Archer)
Anibal Sanchez: Tue-TOR (Hendriks), Sun-BOS (Lackey)
James Shields: Tue-@STL (Garcia), Sun-NYY (Kuroda)
C.J. Wilson: Tue-@HOU (McHugh), Sun-CWS (Sale)
Tier 1
Alex Cobb: Mon-@MIA (Alvarez), Sat-SEA (Elias)
John Lackey: Mon-@CLE (Masterson), Sun-@DET (Sanchez)
Homer Bailey: Tue-SF (Lincecum), Sun-PHI (Buchanan)
Jordan Zimmermann: Tue-PHI (Buchanan), Sun-@SD (Stauffer)
Matt Garza: Mon-MIN (Gibson), Sat-@PIT (Volquez)
Chris Archer: Tue-@MIA (Wolf), Sun-SEA (Hernandez)
Scott Kazmir: Tue-@NYY (Kuroda), Sun-@BAL (Norris)
Tier 2
Tim Lincecum: Tue-@CIN (Bailey), Sun-NYM (Wheeler)
Hiroki Kuroda: Tue-OAK (Kazmir), Sun-@KC (Shields)
Jaime Garcia: Tue-KC (Shields), Sun-@TOR (Hendriks)
Jose Quintana: Mon-@LAD (Kershaw), Sun-@LAA (Wilson)
Yovani Gallardo: Tue-MIN (Deduno), Sun-@PIT (Morton)
Zack Wheeler: Tue-@CHC (Arrieta), Sun-@SF (Lincecum)
Bartolo Colon: Mon-@PHI (Hernandez), Sat-@SF (Hudson)
Shelby Miller: Mon-KC (Duffy), Sat-@TOR (Buehrle)
Tier 3
Jake Arrieta: Tue-NYM (Wheeler), Sun-MIA (Wolf)
Henderson Alvarez: Mon-TB (Cobb), Sat-@CHC (Samardzija)
David Phelps: Mon-SEA (Hernandez), Sat-@KC (Duffy)
Justin Masterson: Mon-BOS (Lackey), Sun-@TEX (Saunders)
Jorge De La Rosa: Tue-ARI (Anderson), Sun-LAD (Kershaw)
Charlie Morton: Mon-@SD (Stauffer), Sun-MIL (Gallardo)
Samuel Deduno: Tue-@MIL (Gallardo), Sun-HOU (Feldman)
Danny Duffy: Mon-@STL (Miller), Sat-NYY (Phelps)
Not this week
Chase Anderson: Tue-@COL (De La Rosa), Sun-ATL (Harang)
David Buchanan: Tue-@WSH (Zimmermann), Sun-@CIN (Bailey)
Kyle Gibson: Mon-@MIL (Garza), Sat-HOU (Keuchel)
Liam Hendriks: Tue-@DET (Sanchez), Sun-STL (Garcia)
Roberto Hernandez: Mon-NYM (Colon), Sat-@CIN (Simon)
Bud Norris: Tue-@TEX (Saunders), Sun-OAK (Kazmir)
Joe Saunders: Tue-BAL (Norris), Sun-CLE (Masterson)
Tim Stauffer: Mon-PIT (Morton), Sun-WSH (Zimmermann)
Randy Wolf: Tue-TB (Archer), Sun-@CHC (Arrieta)
My Week 10 Picks
Jaime Garcia, Cardinals
2014: 1-0, 19.2 IP, 8.69 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 52.8 GB%, 4.12 ERA, 0.81 WHIP
Since returning from a left shoulder injury, Garcia has been lights out for St. Louis, striking out 19 and walking none in 19 2/3 innings. The rub on Garcia is health. The southpaw hasn't pitched in more than 150 innings since 2011. But, generally, when Garcia is taking the ball he gives you quality innings. The left-hander is coming off back-to-back seven strikeout games against the Reds and Giants, and he gets the Royals at home and the Blue Jays on the road in Week 10. That second start in Toronto is far from ideal, but the available two-start options this week aren't terrific and Garcia should be trusted and used as long he's healthy. It's only three starts, but Garcia's 12.8% swinging strike rate represents a career best, and he's throwing 90 mph for the first time since 2010, according to FanGraphs. Use him while you can.
Bartolo Colon, Mets
2014: 4-5, 64.2 IP, 7.24 K/9, 0.97 BB/9, 38.2 GB%, 4.73 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Colon traded the comfy confines in Oakland for hilarious at-bats in the National League's New York. The results haven't been as pretty, but Colon is still a valuable mixed-league starter when used in the right matchups. He gets two favorable matchups this week, with away games in Philadelphia and San Francisco. Both teams strike out at greater than a 21% clip, and neither offense is a world-beater. The Phillies are ranked 23rd with a .304 wOBA, and Colon, whose fly ball rate has moved above 40% for the first time since 2009, should benefit from AT&T Park in his second start. Colon has seen a nice jump in his K-rate after switching leagues (15.2% in 2013, 18.7% in 2014), in addition to better control (seven walks in 64 2/3 innings).
Jake Arrieta, Cubs
2014: 1-1, 25.1 IP, 9.24 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 52.7 GB%, 3.20 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
Throw out a five-walk performance against the Cardinals on May 13, and Arrieta owns a cool 21:5 K:BB ratio in 21 1/3 innings. The 28-year-old has fired six frames in each of his last two starts with 13 strikeouts and two walks, and he's recorded an impressive 52.7% ground ball rate on the season, which represents a career high. Arrieta won't continue a 9+ K/9 rate going forward, but his Week 10 opponents, the Marlins and Mets, are two of the league's most strikeout heavy teams. Miami is sixth in baseball with 253 runs scored, but they are a much different bunch on the road (.351 wOBA at home, .301 wOBA away). Arrieta should thrive as long as he keeps the walks to a minimum. Plus, he's opposing Randy Wolf, not Jose Fernandez.